Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Hr 66 now a 3 contour closed shortwave further north and that ULL moves out quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking at the 66hr nam and Feb 26,2010 Comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At HOUR 72 more northern stream interaction and Vort is a little further north and seems a tad weaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 At HOUR 72 more northern stream interaction and Vort is a little further north and seems a tad weaker! Precip seems much further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looking at the 66hr nam and Feb 26,2010 Comes to mind Yep, looks like 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ends up similar to 18z nam but at 84 looks way more neg tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Ends up similar to 18z nam but at 84 looks way more neg tilted Sure does, Looks like it might have rode up the coast in that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Its starting to become evident that there will be a VeRY sharp cutoff regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 84hr won't come north - there is no room to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yep, looks like 2/6/10. No it doesn't - may wind up in real weather being like that storm, h5 looks like feb 26,2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 84hr won't come north - there is no room to amplify. Yeh there really is not ! It would head ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No it doesn't - may wind up in real weather being like that storm, h5 looks like feb 26,2010 do you mean feb 6th or 26th because 26th was a major snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I like the odds for snow much more once you get to about I-287 and then west/north. East winds can still be a big detriment east of there, but dynamics can take over and keep it snow-so hopefully we see more VV's and strong lift approach our area-light-mod stratiform precip might not be enough to do it. And from this point on, it gets harder to accumulate during the day if it's only a light-moderate snow. It would be good to get much of it at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 0Z NAM info: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0135Z SUN MAR 03 2013THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...72558/OAX - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014276654/MZL - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014291765/PPG - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...1014278016/BDA - PART B IS MISSING91334/TKK - PART B IS MISSING04339/OBY - DELETED ALL WINDS...ERRATIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 do you mean feb 6th or 26th because 26th was a major snowstorm The 26th, but only at h5 (at66hrs on the nam) and that doesn't mean that it's going to have the same result... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 00z GFS has initialized! Goo time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Through HR 51 the shortwave is slightly north! Looks very similar to 18z! From this first look it looks like this may come a tad north through HR 60 the UlL is not off Maine like in the 18z GfS ! I dont kno that ULL might mess this run up for uss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Slightly more north at 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 More northern stream interaction so far but the UlL is way more stubborn this run. Wowo that ULL messes things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Can we keep the analysis to one post. Thanks. More northern stream interaction so far but the UlL is way more stubborn this run. Wowo that ULL messes things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Really hammers DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The block is stronger this run, and the confluence squashes heights along the coast, and thus the end result is southeast of the 18z GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This ain't coming north for all you climo guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The block is stronger this run, and the confluence squashes heights along the coast, and thus the end result is southeast of the 18z GFS solution. The backside ridging is also significantly weaker. The vort isn't digging that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whatever Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 QPF seems grossly underdone so far with the models... considering the near perfect setup and upper air support for this thing to go to town.. We should see higher forecasted QPF totals the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I really am not seeing any sort of northern trend here. If anything, it has kind of leveled off and begun to trend a bit further south. Anyone between S VA and DE is in the game at this point. Up here still maybe a few inches is possible but not a huge storm by any meana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Someone is going to get hit hard, it is still too early to tell. The ECMWF and GGEM will tell us more, but we will not know much detail until the 00Z run tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Someone is going to get hit hard, it is still too early to tell. The ECMWF and GGEM will tell us more, but we will not know much detail until the 00Z run tomorrow night. Agree, this storm wherever it ends up will be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 ULL slow to move out, overpowering block haulting northward progression and the bowling ball occluding too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I really am not seeing any sort of northern trend here. If anything, it has kind of leveled off and begun to trend a bit further south. Anyone between S VA and DE is in the game at this point. Up here still maybe a few inches is possible but not a huge storm by any meana Well, glad to see that you have this one figured out with such certainty 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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