Indystorm Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Pretty bad model failure with the Feb 25 0z and 12z runs...looking at what's going on in central Iowa. Des Moines...rip city. METAR KDSM 261454Z 01016KT 1/4SM R31/2200V4000FT +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M03 A2977 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP090 SNINCR 2/5 P0017 60030 T10111028 55005 $ That really is a nice band moving westward through Polk county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 There is no such thing as a good sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 sky has a definite spring storm look to it...bright partial sun to the north and dark overcast pushing in from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yup. Gained another degree the last hour. Writing's on the wall here. Still should be a decent moderate snowfall but nothing out of this world. You know, it wouldn't surprise me if only 4-6" actually accumulated in the city. Temperatures continuing to rise here, and that's with a snowpack and an east wind, the coldest wind you can get in these parts. If this were December 26, it would be a totally different story, i.e. lower sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 We'll obviously get some dynamic cooling, but the warmer the boundary layer the more difficult it is to overcome. I think the first 3-5 hours now of pcpn is shot south of the 401. Probably RA mixed with SN with no accums. You're still probably ok. We'll change to accumulating snow overnight, but the loss of that prime snow accumulation time will hurt us in the city in the end. I think near the Lake shore, amounts will be limited but still a good 8-15cm is quite possible but away from the Lake, 401 and north including YYZ i believe amounts of 13-20+cm are possible and more the further north you head. Again lets see the temperature anomalies over the next few hours. We still have a snow pack on the ground and that may help keep temperatures at the surface colder. Is everything running good up until this point, comparing the surface to the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 IND up two degrees to 36. "Fun" will probably be over here relatively soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 We'll obviously get some dynamic cooling, but the warmer the boundary layer the more difficult it is to overcome. I think the first 3-5 hours now of pcpn is shot south of the 401. Probably RA mixed with SN with no accums. You're still probably ok. We'll change to accumulating snow overnight, but the loss of that prime snow accumulation time will hurt us in the city in the end. I'm not so sure about that. Rates are going to be pretty strong and with cool winds off the lake, this thing hitting after sunset, and decent snow cover, temps will firmly stay around zero. Especially at onset of precip the temps are going to drop. With the high precip rates the sfc temps will cool as the p type will be snow. Or I could totally bust. But after quite a few snowstorms on Vancouver with sfc temps at 2 degrees I'm not overly concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWOBLU Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Picture from my Aunt's house in Kansas City. Notice the power lines!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So Des Moines now has 5 inches, yet Cedar Rapids is still several hours away from the first flake? Incredibly frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 warning now up for DSM area, good call looping radar, WCB wrapping up into CCB nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 some minor icing on sidewaks/cars here. roads appear to be fine. Ugh...just turn to rain already. My initial call for 1-3 inches of snow/sleet in my backyard not looking good. More like 1-3 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 lol at the weather channel snow accumulation map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 lol at the weather channel snow accumulation map. lol at TWC in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 warning now up for DSM area, good call looping radar, WCB wrapping up into CCB nicely. seriously one of the worst inside 24 hour NAM fails i can remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This storm has huge positive bust potential for someone in lower Michigan. Accumulation maps from DTX are very conservative. I'm looking at 0.75-1.00 qpf and my forecast is 3-6 inches? I'm looking at barely any unfrozen precip... possibly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 NAM remains a worthless POS. 12z NAM text data for the "backside" stuff for LAF...6.5" of snow. That is flat out stupid and wrong. 15 02/27 03Z 32 32 318 3 0.21 0.00 538 535 -1.5 -23.2 997 100 SN 006OVC246 1.0 0.818 02/27 06Z 32 31 274 6 0.12 0.00 536 534 -2.3 -24.2 997 100 -SN 005OVC236 1.2 1.021 02/27 09Z 31 31 257 8 0.03 0.00 537 535 -2.9 -24.1 998 100 -SN 006OVC094 0.3 2.224 02/27 12Z 31 30 249 9 0.03 0.00 536 535 -3.9 -24.6 999 100 -SN 006OVC206 0.3 2.627 02/27 15Z 31 30 244 9 0.06 0.00 535 535 -5.2 -24.4 1000 100 -SN 006OVC248 0.6 0.630 02/27 18Z 32 31 253 9 0.13 0.00 534 535 -5.9 -24.3 1001 100 -SN 006OVC249 1.3 0.533 02/27 21Z 32 32 271 10 0.11 0.00 534 535 -6.5 -24.7 1002 100 -SN 007OVC251 1.1 1.636 02/28 00Z 32 31 285 11 0.04 0.00 533 537 -6.7 -24.7 1004 100 -SN 007OVC144 0.5 1.839 02/28 03Z 31 30 299 12 0.02 0.00 533 538 -6.6 -24.7 1006 100 -SN 007OVC112 0.2 2.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This storm has huge positive bust potential for someone in lower Michigan. Accumulation maps from DTX are very conservative. I'm looking at 0.75-1.00 qpf and my forecast is 3-6 inches? I'm looking at barely any unfrozen precip... possibly all snow. 5:1 ratios and warm surfaces will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sleeting here on the south east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sun is out....Ltu..Southfield. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 NAM remains a worthless POS. 12z NAM text data for the "backside" stuff for LAF...6.5" of snow. That is flat out stupid and wrong. 15 02/27 03Z 32 32 318 3 0.21 0.00 538 535 -1.5 -23.2 997 100 SN 006OVC246 1.0 0.818 02/27 06Z 32 31 274 6 0.12 0.00 536 534 -2.3 -24.2 997 100 -SN 005OVC236 1.2 1.021 02/27 09Z 31 31 257 8 0.03 0.00 537 535 -2.9 -24.1 998 100 -SN 006OVC094 0.3 2.224 02/27 12Z 31 30 249 9 0.03 0.00 536 535 -3.9 -24.6 999 100 -SN 006OVC206 0.3 2.627 02/27 15Z 31 30 244 9 0.06 0.00 535 535 -5.2 -24.4 1000 100 -SN 006OVC248 0.6 0.630 02/27 18Z 32 31 253 9 0.13 0.00 534 535 -5.9 -24.3 1001 100 -SN 006OVC249 1.3 0.533 02/27 21Z 32 32 271 10 0.11 0.00 534 535 -6.5 -24.7 1002 100 -SN 007OVC251 1.1 1.636 02/28 00Z 32 31 285 11 0.04 0.00 533 537 -6.7 -24.7 1004 100 -SN 007OVC144 0.5 1.839 02/28 03Z 31 30 299 12 0.02 0.00 533 538 -6.6 -24.7 1006 100 -SN 007OVC112 0.2 2.9 has some weird band stalling out sw of the sfc low over LAF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 We'll obviously get some dynamic cooling, but the warmer the boundary layer the more difficult it is to overcome. I think the first 3-5 hours now of pcpn is shot south of the 401. Probably RA mixed with SN with no accums. You're still probably ok. We'll change to accumulating snow overnight, but the loss of that prime snow accumulation time will hurt us in the city in the end. Hmm, 12z GFS looks a bit toasty. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 You know, it wouldn't surprise me if only 4-6" actually accumulated in the city. Temperatures continuing to rise here, and that's with a snowpack and an east wind, the coldest wind you can get in these parts. If this were December 26, it would be a totally different story, i.e. lower sun angle. If the wind was more ENE or NE, we'd be colder. It's 090 blowing in right off L Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm not so sure about that. Rates are going to be pretty strong and with cool winds off the lake, this thing hitting after sunset, and decent snow cover, temps will firmly stay around zero. Especially at onset of precip the temps are going to drop. With the high precip rates the sfc temps will cool as the p type will be snow. Or I could totally bust. But after quite a few snowstorms on Vancouver with sfc temps at 2 degrees I'm not overly concerned This isn't May unfortunately. That's a warming wind. But I hope you're right about the rates and the snowcover helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sun is out....Ltu..Southfield. . Good news temps still below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not feeling it for this area of SE MI, or at least I should say feeling very nervous...has huge bust potential either way, to be honest. We have lucked out most events this winter by overperforming, so you could argue either "seasonal trend" says heavy snow, or "we are due for a bust" says heavy rain. Even if a track was set in stone (which it really isnt) I could see everything from all rain to 10" of cement. Im off to work all day though, so when I get out (7pm) a storm of some form should be raging one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 via FB 5" is DSM?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This isn't May unfortunately. That's a warming wind. But I hope you're right about the rates and the snowcover helping out. Good luck up there with the snow,i will enjoy the rain down here ughh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lansing, IL (near 80/IN border) temp has gone from 37 down to 33 in about 40 mins JOT 35/26 and snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Wow. Talk about a stubborn dry bubble that just wont budge according to the DVN radar. Hence the reason it hasnt start snowing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not feeling it for this area of SE MI, or at least I should say feeling very nervous...has huge bust potential either way, to be honest. We have lucked out most events this winter by overperforming, so you could argue either "seasonal trend" says heavy snow, or "we are due for a bust" says heavy rain. Even if a track was set in stone (which it really isnt) I could see everything from all rain to 10" of cement. Im off to work all day though, so when I get out (7pm) a storm of some form should be raging one way or the other. Yeah it appears to be a nowcasting event for everyone at this point. Too marginal to call. Every mile off the low track counts, every daytime heating degree and dynamic cooling counts. Best of luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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