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February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 3


Brewers

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.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...ISSUED AT 957 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013BASED ON REPORTS FROM NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECASTAREA...APPEARS THAT ICE IS ACCUMULATING ON TREES...POWERLINES...AND ELEVATED SURFACES...FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY IN SOME AREAS.SURFACE WETBULB TEMPS OFF RAPID REFRESH REMAIN BORDERLINE ACROSSOUR NORTH THROUGH MIDDAY...AND THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARTHE FREEZING MARK OR JUST ABOVE. WHILE THIS MAY NOT HAVESIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR ROADS...ELEVATED SURFACES WILL CONTINUE TOACCUMULATE ICE...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME BRANCHES TO FALL AND/ORPOWER LINES TO BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY WITH WINDS CONTINUING TOBE GUSTY. THUS...HAVE CHOSEN TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY THROUGH 1 PMEST.

 

Sounds like a reasonable decision. Saw some trees starting to droop a bit on the drive in and one messed up stoplight. Not much accums in downtown LAF/Wlaf but in more open areas. Just enough of an urban heat island effect in a marginal situation, I guess. Doesn't look like temps are going to budge for a while.

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Sounds like a reasonable decision. Saw some trees starting to droop a bit on the drive in and one messed up stoplight. Not much accums in downtown LAF/Wlaf but in more open areas. Just enough of an urban heat island effect in a marginal situation, I guess. Doesn't look like temps are going to budge for a while.

 

It's teetering. My car in the lot has ice on it, but it's "slushy". The big pine trees on the west side of the complex here are a little saggy at the top.

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Nah, I'm sticking with 6". Nutso amounts to my NW.  

 

I'm still shocked to see EC not pulling any warnings let alone some watches. Were less than 12 hours away from this storm beginning. This is creating a bad reputation for EC as if they dont already have one, lol .

 

I'm still in line with my forecast from yesterday, lets see if anything changes through the day. Temperatures are key, this storm's juicy, **** why cant it be a bit colder. 

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Temperature is up to 33 here with overcast skies.

 

I'm going to stick with my 6-8" call. No way I see 10-12" in my backyard. Temperatures are too marginal, ground isn't all that cold. I think 10" worth of snow may fall from the sky, but don't think that amount will accumulate. Yes, there was December 1992, but that was in mid December, when the sun angle was it's lowest. Once the sun comes up tomorrow, there's no way we'll accumulate much. This is going to be a slush storm. EC may be making the right call for the city of Toronto.

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Temperature is up to 33 here with overcast skies.

 

I'm going to stick with my 6-8" call. No way I see 10-12" in my backyard. Temperatures are too marginal, ground isn't all that cold. I think 10" worth of snow may fall from the sky, but don't think that amount will accumulate. Yes, there was December 1992, but that was in mid December, when the sun angle was it's lowest. Once the sun comes up tomorrow, there's no way we'll accumulate much. This is going to be a slush storm. EC may be making the right call for the city of Toronto.

 

Yup. Gained another degree the last hour. Writing's on the wall here. Still should be a decent moderate snowfall but nothing out of this world.

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Temperature is up to 33 here with overcast skies.

 

I'm going to stick with my 6-8" call. No way I see 10-12" in my backyard. Temperatures are too marginal, ground isn't all that cold. I think 10" worth of snow may fall from the sky, but don't think that amount will accumulate. Yes, there was December 1992, but that was in mid December, when the sun angle was it's lowest. Once the sun comes up tomorrow, there's no way we'll accumulate much. This is going to be a slush storm. EC may be making the right call for the city of Toronto.

 

I remember that event we had a major Ice event here with a couple inches family phoned my parents from TO said 16" fell. I remember being extremely jealous of my cousins ;)

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Me too. We'll see.

 

So FZRA for LAF? There's a twist. I would have figured 2M temps would have been too warm. Although I'm assuming it's just elevated objects getting glazed.

 

Yep, elevated now. But surfaces were iced over/icey earlier this morning. Had some sleet too. IND issuing a WWA was a good call.

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Pretty bad model failure with the Feb 25 0z and 12z runs...looking at what's going on in central Iowa. 

 

Des Moines...rip city.

 

METAR KDSM 261454Z 01016KT 1/4SM R31/2200V4000FT +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M03 A2977 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP090 SNINCR 2/5 P0017 60030 T10111028 55005 $

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Yup. Gained another degree the last hour. Writing's on the wall here. Still should be a decent moderate snowfall but nothing out of this world.

 

Lets see how much dynamic cooling we can see later in the day. Brett tweeted yesterday i believe, how Lake Ont is running a bit colder than normal. 

 

The sun is out right now, lol. Still have a decent snow pack, about 3-5". 

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Pretty bad model failure with the Feb 25 0z and 12z runs...looking at what's going on in central Iowa. 

 

Des Moines...rip city.

 

METAR KDSM 261454Z 01016KT 1/4SM R31/2200V4000FT +SN FZFG VV004 M01/M03 A2977 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP090 SNINCR 2/5 P0017 60030 T10111028 55005 $

 

 

yeah NAM had like nothing even just west of the river at 12z yesterday much less back to DSM...massive failure indeed

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I remember that event we had a major Ice event here with a couple inches family phoned my parents from TO said 16" fell. I remember being extremely jealous of my cousins ;)

Yes, it was the biggest storm of my childhood. School cancelled. Family friends who were acting in a musical downtown were stranded, were put up in a hotel.

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Lets see how much dynamic cooling we can see later in the day. Brett tweeted yesterday i believe, how Lake Ont is running a bit colder than normal. 

 

The sun is out right now, lol. Still have a decent snow pack, about 3-5". 

 

We'll obviously get some dynamic cooling, but the warmer the boundary layer the more difficult it is to overcome. I think the first 3-5 hours now of pcpn is shot south of the 401. Probably RA mixed with SN with no accums. You're still probably ok. We'll change to accumulating snow overnight, but the loss of that prime snow accumulation time will hurt us in the city in the end.

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