Allsnow Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 No need for apologies Timothy. Any bone you throw me is well appreciated. I'll take a closer look in about half an hour at wunderground. I have a bias to northern IL my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.7 -1.2 1006 71 66 0.01 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.1 -5.3 1005 95 96 0.50 541 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.1 -5.1 1004 95 96 0.26 539 536 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.0 -5.1 1004 94 96 0.05 538 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.0 1007 90 97 0.03 540 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.0 1010 88 95 0.02 542 534 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1012 87 97 0.01 544 534 LAF: TUE 12Z 26-FEB 0.0 5.6 1001 84 91 0.23 550 549 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 2.1 1.9 997 92 72 0.43 538 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 3.7 -0.8 998 93 82 0.04 535 536 WED 06Z 27-FEB 2.2 -2.7 1000 98 80 0.01 534 534 WED 12Z 27-FEB 1.2 -3.7 1002 99 73 0.01 535 534 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.5 -3.0 1005 95 79 0.02 537 533 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.7 -5.4 1009 97 91 0.03 540 533 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.3 1010 95 93 0.03 542 534 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.1 -6.1 1013 93 86 0.01 545 534 DTW: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.7 2.2 1007 71 100 0.03 551 546 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -1.4 1004 97 96 0.52 543 540 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.8 -0.6 1001 98 95 0.25 539 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.6 -1.3 1001 99 88 0.09 535 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.9 -2.9 1001 97 97 0.12 534 533 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.5 -5.3 1003 96 97 0.16 534 532 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -6.6 1004 93 93 0.04 536 532 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.4 -6.6 1008 89 95 0.01 540 533 THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.6 -7.8 1012 74 86 0.01 543 534 YYZ: WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.2 -3.7 1013 79 91 0.03 553 542 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.7 -2.9 1009 97 100 0.52 546 539 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.3 -3.7 1006 95 99 0.22 541 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.5 1003 92 93 0.21 537 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.9 1003 97 97 0.11 535 532 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.2 -6.3 1003 93 97 0.11 534 532 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.7 -7.7 1004 88 98 0.03 534 531 THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.7 -8.1 1006 72 98 0.02 536 531 FRI 00Z 01-MAR -0.4 -8.7 1011 82 97 0.02 538 529 FRI 06Z 01-MAR -3.5 -9.5 1013 84 83 0.02 538 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'm also hearing that temps are colder than the 00z run Updated early at wunderground. The little pivot on the trowal that was right over us on the 0z run is more along the north shore of Lk Ontario this run. That's where the protracted heavy snow sets up with us getting lighter amounts after the initial burst. It's really only a shift of about 25-50 miles but the impact is noticeable. Certainly not impossible that it could shift back to the west on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 LOT removed the SWS, which I think means something else is on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.7 -1.2 1006 71 66 0.01 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.1 -5.3 1005 95 96 0.50 541 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.1 -5.1 1004 95 96 0.26 539 536 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.0 -5.1 1004 94 96 0.05 538 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.0 1007 90 97 0.03 540 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.0 1010 88 95 0.02 542 534 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1012 87 97 0.01 544 534 Wonder what the total qpf is for MKE on the Euro. The 12z GFS had 1.01" for MKE through Mar 2ndWow 0.88"! Much better than I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 So after looking at the 12z runs, here's my early guess on precip timing/types for LAF. Precip starts 9z-12z Tuesday possibly as sleet as wetbulb temps aloft are in the 1-2C range. Then things should transition toward less in the way of sleet and more in the way of rain/freezing rain depending on surface temps. There could be a minor glaze but this will need revisiting as the storm gets closer. After 15z or so, I would expect precip to safely be rain (if you consider temps in the mid 30s to be safe) for much of the rest of the day. Precip should transition to snow around or perhaps just after 00z Wednesday and after that we don't look back. Could see minor snow accumulations with the wraparound moisture but not worth getting very excited about right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Feb 6, 2008 had about 5" by morning imby with the PART A wave, although I remember there was the special weather statement issued by EC stating that a swath of near 8" fell from Milton to Mississauga. Then there was a 6 hour break, and then PART B arrived by mid afternoon with about 8" additional. 20" seems like a stretch but in Mississauga on the morning of the 7th, 16 or 17" of snow may have fallen in total. Jan 26-27, 2004 was the big lake enhanced storm. You may have been too young to remember it but south Etobicoke and east Mississauga got hit very hard. Almost 2 feet. Canuck, are you old enough to remember the December 1992 storm and/or the frigid January of 1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.7 -1.2 1006 71 66 0.01 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.1 -5.3 1005 95 96 0.50 541 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.1 -5.1 1004 95 96 0.26 539 536 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.0 -5.1 1004 94 96 0.05 538 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.0 1007 90 97 0.03 540 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.0 1010 88 95 0.02 542 534 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1012 87 97 0.01 544 534 LAF: TUE 12Z 26-FEB 0.0 5.6 1001 84 91 0.23 550 549 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 2.1 1.9 997 92 72 0.43 538 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 3.7 -0.8 998 93 82 0.04 535 536 WED 06Z 27-FEB 2.2 -2.7 1000 98 80 0.01 534 534 WED 12Z 27-FEB 1.2 -3.7 1002 99 73 0.01 535 534 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.5 -3.0 1005 95 79 0.02 537 533 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.7 -5.4 1009 97 91 0.03 540 533 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.3 1010 95 93 0.03 542 534 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.1 -6.1 1013 93 86 0.01 545 534 DTW: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.7 2.2 1007 71 100 0.03 551 546 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.5 -1.4 1004 97 96 0.52 543 540 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.8 -0.6 1001 98 95 0.25 539 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.6 -1.3 1001 99 88 0.09 535 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.9 -2.9 1001 97 97 0.12 534 533 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.5 -5.3 1003 96 97 0.16 534 532 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -6.6 1004 93 93 0.04 536 532 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.4 -6.6 1008 89 95 0.01 540 533 THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.6 -7.8 1012 74 86 0.01 543 534 YYZ: WED 00Z 27-FEB 2.2 -3.7 1013 79 91 0.03 553 542 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.7 -2.9 1009 97 100 0.52 546 539 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.3 -3.7 1006 95 99 0.22 541 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.5 1003 92 93 0.21 537 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.9 1003 97 97 0.11 535 532 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.2 -6.3 1003 93 97 0.11 534 532 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.7 -7.7 1004 88 98 0.03 534 531 THU 18Z 28-FEB 1.7 -8.1 1006 72 98 0.02 536 531 FRI 00Z 01-MAR -0.4 -8.7 1011 82 97 0.02 538 529 FRI 06Z 01-MAR -3.5 -9.5 1013 84 83 0.02 538 527 0.7c is getting a bit toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 sounds like the new hotness I've missed hearing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 yep, undeniable...looks like I'll get on the over 3" storm board Almost surreal seeing something trend better as we near the event. Been nonexistent the last 2 seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Wonder what the total qpf is for MKE on the Euro. The 12z GFS had 1.01" for MKE through Mar 2nd sounds like pushing .75" GFS is probably a little bullish on the snow after the main event wed. Thanks much, Joey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 sounds like pushing .75" GFS is probably a little bullish on the snow after the main event wed. 0.88" on the Euro!! MKE: TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.7 -1.2 1006 71 66 0.01 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.1 -5.3 1005 95 96 0.50 541 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB -0.1 -5.1 1004 95 96 0.26 539 536 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.0 -5.1 1004 94 96 0.05 538 535 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.5 -5.0 1007 90 97 0.03 540 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.0 1010 88 95 0.02 542 534 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.5 1012 87 97 0.01 544 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Canuck, are you old enough to remember the December 1992 storm and/or the frigid January of 1994? I was alive, but too young to remember either of those events. I get a few vague recollections from as early as the fall of '97 but January 1999 and onwards is when my memory of wx events in Toronto borders on eidetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Almost surreal seeing something trend better as we near the event. Been nonexistent the last 2 seasons Not counting the 2 January events last year, but point well taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Not counting the 2 January events last year, but point well taken. Ah. I was in Connecticut for those two, so I basically blocked those out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Almost surreal seeing something trend better as we near the event. Been nonexistent the last 2 seasons There's still 48 hours for it to trend worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 LAF: TUE 12Z 26-FEB 0.0 5.6 1001 84 91 0.23 550 549 TUE 18Z 26-FEB 2.1 1.9 997 92 72 0.43 538 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 3.7 -0.8 998 93 82 0.04 535 536 WED 06Z 27-FEB 2.2 -2.7 1000 98 80 0.01 534 534 WED 12Z 27-FEB 1.2 -3.7 1002 99 73 0.01 535 534 WED 18Z 27-FEB 1.5 -3.0 1005 95 79 0.02 537 533 THU 00Z 28-FEB 0.7 -5.4 1009 97 91 0.03 540 533 THU 06Z 28-FEB 0.2 -5.3 1010 95 93 0.03 542 534 THU 12Z 28-FEB -0.1 -6.1 1013 93 86 0.01 545 534 Wow, what a blowtorch. At least the rain will be warmer pushing 40º... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 There's still 48 hours for it to trend worse. now that aleks on board I'd be a little scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 There's still 48 hours for it to trend worse. Haha I am pumped about this right now. Enough of your logic! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Still thinking significant icing here in Marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 So after looking at the 12z runs, here's my early guess on precip timing/types for LAF. Precip starts 9z-12z Tuesday possibly as sleet as wetbulb temps aloft are in the 1-2C range. Then things should transition toward less in the way of sleet and more in the way of rain/freezing rain depending on surface temps. There could be a minor glaze but this will need revisiting as the storm gets closer. After 15z or so, I would expect precip to safely be rain (if you consider temps in the mid 30s to be safe) for much of the rest of the day. Precip should transition to snow around or perhaps just after 00z Wednesday and after that we don't look back. Could see minor snow accumulations with the wraparound moisture but not worth getting very excited about right now. Sleet. Yeah. Puke. At least it won't last long. Solid rainer upcoming. Backside snows will amount to diddly with surface temps well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 now that aleks on board I'd be a little scared. yeah plenty of time to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Wow, what a blowtorch. At least the rain will be warmer pushing 40º... sucks big time man Hopefully the mood snows can over perform.. You guys better get some loving next winter... still time to score this winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Updated early at wunderground. The little pivot on the trowal that was right over us on the 0z run is more along the north shore of Lk Ontario this run. That's where the protracted heavy snow sets up with us getting lighter amounts after the initial burst. It's really only a shift of about 25-50 miles but the impact is noticeable. Certainly not impossible that it could shift back to the west on future runs. At least we know there should be a TROWAL feature. Where it sets up is up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 sucks big time man Hopefully the mood snows can over perform.. You guys better get some loving next winter. Well, it is what it is. But I'm obviously still invested and pulling for you all up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Still thinking significant icing here in Marion. Yes we know. You've only mentioned that a dozen times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 yeah plenty of time to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Just teasing.. You guys are in a prime spot on all the models and I can't imagine that changes too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Early low confidence call for here over to fort Wayne Tuesday into Wednesday is for 1 to 3 of sleet and snow accumulation. Not really thinking freezing rain is that big of a threat given stale airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Just teasing.. You guys are in a prime spot on all the models and I can't imagine that changes too much. I agree. Things can always go wrong but this is approaching one of those situations where I wouldn't trade my location with anyone...maybe mt. goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Yes we know. You've only mentioned that a dozen times. Friv's long lost son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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