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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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I'm telling you guys, this has LSC screw job written all over it! Cross barrier flow is very strong, and instability is relatively high in the lower levels during the day tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if St. J sees an inch, while Walden/Danville/Orange heights above 1,200-1,500 feet see 5-8". Thank god I'm not there. 

You doing the BTV maps?  ^_^

post-1533-0-20889100-1361906891_thumb.pn

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Wow, Passumpsic valley, ftl.

 

And yeah, that Wundermap is pretty cool.  I've only been playing around with it for a week or so but I like that it has the Euro, even if delayed a bit.

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That is one of the oddest looking warning layouts you'll ever see but I totally agree with it. I'm not expecting more than 1-3" here in Stowe Village, but am forecasting 4-7" for the ski area operations (1500ft-3600ft). Here in town we will get shadowed by the Worcester Range's 3-3.6kft ridge line to our east. Often in SE flow that ridge line helps us but the lift is usually higher in the atmosphere. This is like a mesoscale upslope event, lol.

What an awesome AFD too....then you see the names of who did it and it makes sense. Taber and Muccilli killin' it again.

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That is one of the oddest looking warning layouts you'll ever see

What an awesome AFD too....then you see the names of who did it and it makes sense. Taber and Muccilli killin' it again.

 

I know dude, I was thinking the same--about both the look of the warnings on the map and this afternoon's disco.  Great write-up for sure.

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That is one of the oddest looking warning layouts you'll ever see but I totally agree with it. I'm not expecting more than 1-3" here in Stowe Village, but am forecasting 4-7" for the ski area operations (1500ft-3600ft). Here in town we will get shadowed by the Worcester Range's 3-3.6kft ridge line to our east. Often in SE flow that ridge line helps us but the lift is usually higher in the atmosphere. This is like a mesoscale upslope event, lol.

What an awesome AFD too....then you see the names of who did it and it makes sense. Taber and Muccilli killin' it again.

 

 

I know, I was thinking the same--about both the look of the warnings on the map and this afternoon's disco.  Great write-up for sure.

I can almost spit into WSW territory from my house.

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That is one of the oddest looking warning layouts you'll ever see but I totally agree with it. I'm not expecting more than 1-3" here in Stowe Village, but am forecasting 4-7" for the ski area operations (1500ft-3600ft). Here in town we will get shadowed by the Worcester Range's 3-3.6kft ridge line to our east. Often in SE flow that ridge line helps us but the lift is usually higher in the atmosphere. This is like a mesoscale upslope event, lol.

What an awesome AFD too....then you see the names of who did it and it makes sense. Taber and Muccilli killin' it again.

Mike Muccilli is a great friend, and LSC alum. Good dude.

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

 

We were up at Bolton Valley this afternoon for some media work – the hope was for some outside work if any peeks of sun chose to appear, but that wasn’t the case so everything was indoors.  We arrived around midday and basically drove right up into the thick clouds in the Village.  The clouds showed no signs of pulling out, and in fact in the mid afternoon it started snowing hard enough that it was easily accumulating.  I can see that it’s still lightly snowing up there on their live web cam.  Back down here at the house we’ve got an assortment of big, lazy flakes falling ever so slowly, but they’re not accumulation at this point with the temperature a bit above freezing.  It looks like this is moisture trapped under the ridge based on the BTV NWS discussion:

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

AS OF 259 PM EST MONDAY...THE CLD COVER OVER THE CWA THIS AFTNOON WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNGT HRS...AS SFC RIDGE TRAPS ABUNDANT LL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THRU THE OVERNGT PERIOD...CWA WILL SEE MCLDY/CLDY SKIES. WK UPPER VORT MVG OVER THE AREA THIS AFTNOON IS AIDING IN LGT --SW OVER NORTHERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CVLY. TREND TO CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNGT HRS W/ LITTLE TO NO ACCUM EXPECTED.

 

 

 

Anyway, got 0.5" of dust overnight.  The type of stuff that does absolutely nothing except pad the seasonal totals as it gets added up over time.

 

I love this stuff, you can get a half inch and still see the surface underneath.  Could probably get an inch or two and still see the bed surface, lol.

 

attachicon.gifphoto.JPG

 

 

I was wondering if anyone else got in on that fluff – we got the exact same accumulation here.  Once the temperature cooled down, those big lazy flakes I reported yesterday afternoon actually started to accumulate, and it’s not surprising how lofty the accumulation was based on the size and rate of descent in those things.  FYI, that snow came in around 2% H2O according to the analysis performed here, although I had a few bits of melted stuff on the board from the previous flakes so it might have ultimately been even a bit drier than that.

 

We were doing a bit more media work up at Bolton Valley today, and unlike the clouds and snow yesterday, Mother Nature cooperated to provide some puffy clouds, blue sky and sun.  It was actually a fantastic day out there, with the freezing level coming up pretty far – the Bolton Valley Weather Station at 2,100’ got just above it to 33.4 F, and judging by the look and feel I bet it got up to ~2,500’.  There was a bit of a previous melt crust off piste below the 2,000’ mark in exposed areas, but powder was nice (albeit dense) above that level, and the groomed slopes were just beautiful everywhere.  There was even a bit of a spring feel to the snow down near 1,500’ on west-facing terrain at Timberline.  It was great getting some sun after being socked in yesterday:

 

26FEB13D.jpg

 

I saw folks talking about the funky advisories map – it’s got quite the slices of color.  We’re under a Winter Weather Advisory here with the coloring on the accumulations map suggesting the 2-4”/4-6” range, although I’d suspect we’d be in the lower range down at this elevation, and that seems to fit with the point forecast.

 

26FEB13A.jpg

 

26FEB13B.jpg

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 50.0

Snow Density: 2.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.2 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

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Awesome and fascinating storm on tap here. 

 

Looks like the Whites are going to get an incredible snowfall.  WRF has 60hr run total precip accums of 2.5+ inches of water.  I can believe it.  That's going to paste so much snow on those mountains.  Just going to be awesome over there.  

 

Overall (I only forecast for above 2000ft) I think we're looking at 10-16 eastern slopes of the ADK, 6-12 Spine south of 89, with 12-24 down around K-mart,  5-10 northern spine, and 2-3 feet in the whites. 

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Well, woke up around 5:30 to a moderate band of snow overhead which left a quick 0.6".

 

Got into a lull for while but another band approaching from the south is just now getting to us.

 

Upstream radar looking a little ragged and it doesn't have the signature/fetch that I thought may develop.  May not add up too much, particularly falling during daylight the hours.  Certainly on tap for a few inches though, I would think.

 

Going back and forth between 30 & 31F and dews running in the mid/upper 20s.

 

Vis going down and snowfall increasing as I type.

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Indeed--it's been band-lull-band-lull here so far.  Entering the second hole now with around an inch down.

 

No biggie--it sure beats a cutter with driving rain. 

 

Meh...radar looks real shredded.

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I sure as heck hope its dumping up there because it is positively miserable down in NYC. Wind whipped rain. Yuck.

If it's any comfort, Roger Hill noted that he felt the MRV would be winners in the local area, though it didn't sound like he thought there would much overall.

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Meh...radar looks real shredded. No one is piling it up yet. Would've thought the dump was well on its way down in the Killington area at this point.

Cameras say it's on down that way.

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If it's any comfort, Roger Hill noted that he felt the MRV would be winners in the local area, though it didn't sound like he thought there would much overall.

You can't imagine how pleasing that is for me.

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Occasional weenie flakes in AUG.  Radar looks basically unchanged over the past 4 hr, GYX still on track for good stuff, especially for the foothills.  Hope this doesn't wind up like last Tues night's WSW-turned-rainstorm.

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+SN now in Plym and finally sticking on the roads. Shouldn't last long though. Not sure what to expect.

 

32.2F, but probably will go back up to 33F or so after this band moves through.

It's going to be interesting to see how much you get. I forecasted 8"-12" for that area, some mets had 10"-15", which is out of the question. I'm starting to feel 8" at best depending how many more +SN bands pass through.

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You can't imagine how pleasing that is for me.

 

SB/MRG web cams look promising.  Really ripping.

 

Not much happening north of 89... we should grab a couple inches at the mountains (maybe an inch at elevation on Mansfield right now), though I'm at home in town and we have gotten a bunch of wet flurries all morning.  I can't bring myself to getting the motivation to go up there on my day off to ski, so you know it must not be dumping, lol.

 

But its how it goes in these events... areas that jackpot on NW flow, not so much on ESE flow.  At least in this event.  Which is odd because we do really well in some SE flow events. 

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It's going to be interesting to see how much you get. I forecasted 8"-12" for that area, some mets had 10"-15", which is out of the question. I'm starting to feel 8" at best depending how many more +SN bands pass through.

The screw zone is riding up 93 and just like that we're back to -SN 31.9F.

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It's going to be interesting to see how much you get. I forecasted 8"-12" for that area, some mets had 10"-15", which is out of the question. I'm starting to feel 8" at best depending how many more +SN bands pass through.

Wow, you went 8-12" for PSU? Ballsy, bro! haha. After going to school up there, I seriously always lean conservative especially in late February in a shadow region. I had 6-8" so we will see what happens. 

 

PS- "drink til the NAM's pretty" is epic.

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Wow, you went 8-12" for PSU? Ballsy, bro! haha. After going to school up there, I seriously always lean conservative especially in late February in a shadow region. I had 6-8" so we will see what happens. 

 

PS- "drink til the NAM's pretty" is epic.

Ha thanks. I just looked Plymouth up on NWS and they have at least 9" forecasted and have some rain thrown in the mix too but I can't buy into that all too much. I think the column stays cool enough for all snow. Just need that precip to pass through without getting wretched apart. Wanna bet on this one? lol

 

By the way NAM has been looking better as of late so this signature may be in jeopardy. I don't expect the NAM to stay this course for long though. Although who the hell knows at this point it's just a model.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 1204 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATES TO T/TD/MAX TEMP DATA

THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. REST OF FCST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED

WITH ALL EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVSYS REMAINING IN PLACE. MOISTURE AND

ACCOMPANYING RAIN/SNOW CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE AREA ON FAIRLY

ROBUST CYCLONIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A LOOK AT INCOMING HI-RES

MODELS AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MOST OF THE GUSTY WINDS IN THE

WIND ADVSY AREA ARE MORE GAP-ORIENTED AND LESS PURE DOWNSLOPE

GIVEN SUCH STRONG BLOCKING SIGNATURES. WITH THAT

BLOCKING...HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS SO FAR HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE

EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL/SRN GREENS AND ERN DACKS...MAINLY

ABOVE 1500 FEET. IN FACT...OUR CENTRAL/SRN GREEN MTN RESORTS WILL

LIKELY DO QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

HAVE A GREAT AFTERNOON.

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