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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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Yesterday my 52.5" was within 0.05" of my 15-yr avg for snowfall to date. Since my daily avg for Feb is 0.77"/day, I'm now -0.72" unless something should surprise between now and 9 PM. ;)

Thinking I'll slip 6-8" under the avg before anything serious comes along.

I thought you'd be higher. I kept track of all winters in Belgrade Lakes from 1989 through last year, but sadly have not calculated the mean, but I thought we'd be more than 52". It'll give me an excuse to trudge through some more of my journals and tally up some more data.

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I thought you'd be higher. I kept track of all winters in Belgrade Lakes from 1989 through last year, but sadly have not calculated the mean, but I thought we'd be more than 52". It'll give me an excuse to trudge through some more of my journals and tally up some more data.

My full-season avg is 87"; Farmington's is 1-2" above that. Thru 2/14 mine is 54", then the 14-yr avg adds another 10.5" for the 2nd half of Feb, 16.7" March, 5.7" April.

Beginning to look like my "...will be 6-8" below avg before anything decent..." comment may get buried over the weekend (he said hopefully.)

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My full-season avg is 87"; Farmington's is 1-2" above that. Thru 2/14 mine is 54", then the 14-yr avg adds another 10.5" for the 2nd half of Feb, 16.7" March, 5.7" April.

Beginning to look like my "...will be 6-8" below avg before anything decent..." comment may get buried over the weekend (he said hopefully.)

Oops, I didn't see the "thru 2/14" part. Makes sense.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/Trace L.E.

 

A found a tenth of an inch of fluff on the board this morning with some flurries around.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 31.6 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 7.0 inches

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Been snowing decently at times here this morning.

 

Mansfield is on a little streak here, seemingly pulling every available bit of moisture out... managing to see the one or two pixels overhead light-up to moderate bursts as these pass overhead.

 

Closer to 3/4ths now at the base...groomers saying 1-2" up top so we'll see. 

 

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Been snowing decently at times here this morning.

Mansfield is on a little streak here, seemingly pulling every available bit of moisture out... managing to see the one or two pixels overhead light-up to moderate bursts as these pass overhead.

Closer to 3/4ths now at the base...groomers saying 1-2" up top so we'll see.

Indeed. You do realize I bring snow ;) lol

Sadly, after some morning fun it's back to the PA cabin for weekend training. Busy busy week. Even made a few visits....PJ....Edgewise....pinnacle.......loads of deals on racer gear and kids grow like weeds. Been a fantastic week in Stowe!!

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Had a nice little flizzard at the house this morning picking up a quick 0.2"

 

Not looking like much this weekend afterall though....

 

Maybe a swfe-ish kind of thing next week?  Not usually my favorite type of event but they can be useful for some high density, pack-enhancing type snow.

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Indeed. You do realize I bring snow ;) lol

Sadly, after some morning fun it's back to the PA cabin for weekend training. Busy busy week. Even made a few visits....PJ....Edgewise....pinnacle.......loads of deals on racer gear and kids grow like weeds. Been a fantastic week in Stowe!!

 

You did bring some great snow, haha.  Come back anytime :)

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Geez, the good looking long range has gone to hell the last couple runs. Is it that progged monster block over Hudson Bay that doesn't move for days on end? Seems to shred out/suppress everything that tries to advance on it. Is that where a "west based" -NAO is usually located? If so, it's too far west and/or too strong. Seems like a strong -NAO is much more important for those south of us and can actually be to our detriment at this latitude.

 

Sorry for the amateur question...I'm just a humble winter weather lover, not a met.

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Not looking good up here for the near future in terms of snow outside of the summits. Huge NAO block is forcing storm systems south of New England. Like way south...leaving us high and dry. Ugh.

 

Folks south luv -NAO, The can hurt us more sometimes then help

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Yup. I do still think NNE will see a biggie when the block loosens it's grip probably in the first week of march. From then on, it can be spring ;)

 

 

2010 was a perfect example, Watched many coastals get up to LI and hit a brick wall and move ENE

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Yup. I do still think NNE will see a biggie when the block loosens it's grip probably in the first week of march. From then on, it can be spring ;)

That's usually what happens...like 10-11 when we watched SNE get HECS type storms, only to then get a 2.5" QPF and 27" bomb on March 7th as the jet lifted north. Of course, they occur with very little fanfare when SNE isn't in the game. I think that was the least posted about 2 foot storm in New England history, lol.

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I had been noticing this upslope on several model runs, just in the usual textbook hint of lingering trace amounts of precipitation across the northern Greens for several periods on NW flow, but BTV with a good discussion on the potential upslope around midweek...

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 300 PM EST SATURDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL FEATURE ANAMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LVL FLOW. ANTICIPATING TWO LOWTO MODERATE STORMS TO IMPACT OUR FA...WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING ONTUES AND ANOTHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...EXPECT A 12 TO 18HRWINDOW OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT THRU WEDS NIGHT...WITHSNOW ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR TO THE UPSLOPE EVENT A COUPLE DAYS AGO.MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON TUES...WITH CLOSED CYCLONIC5H/7H CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES LIFTING ACRS THEGREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. ONCE AGAIN SFC LOW PRES ISTRACKING TO OUR WEST...THEREFORE EXPECT LIMITED IMPACTS WITHDOWNSLOPE SHADOWING OFF THE DACKS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WL BEPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EXPOSED HIGHER TRRN/CPV AND SLV ON TUES. INADDITION...THERMAL PROFILES WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OFRAIN/SNOW VALLEYS AND MAINLY SNOW MTNS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN0.05" AND 0.30". SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WL BE POSSIBLE INTHE MTNS ON TUES. TUES NIGHT THRU WEDS NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SHOWFAVORABLE LEFTOVER SFC THRU 700MB RH...ALONG WITH GOOD SFC TO850MB UPSLOPE FLW. ALSO...HAVE NOTICED ENHANCED UVVS SIGNATURES INTHE NORTHERN DACKS/WESTERN SLOPES...SHOWING THE POTENTIAL UPSLOPEPRECIP CHCS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEPTH/DURATION OF RHPROFILES...ESPECIALLY IF A DRIER NW FLW DEVELOPS...WHICH IS HINTEDBY SEVERAL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS WL BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSEVENT...WHICH WL HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT MOISTURE AND SUPPORT A HIGHERSNOW RATIO...BUT COLDER AIR HOLDS LESS MOISTURE. EARLY INDICATIONSWOULD BE FOR A MODERATE EVENT WITH ACCUMULATIONS ACRS NORTHERN NYAND WESTERN SLOPES BTWN 4 AND 10 INCHES. WL CONT TO FINE TUNELOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS EVENT BECMS CLOSER. OUTSIDE OF UPSLOPEPRECIP...EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES.

 

 

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A few inches of upslope following a 1-3 inch synoptic snow looks like the route to go right now.  Maybe a 4-8 inch total event for the mountains for both parts is what I'm leaning towards.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EST SUNDAY...CLOSED UPR LOW ROTATING EWD FROM THE
ERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTH COUNTY
BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. LEADING OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THRU
AROUND 00Z WED...SO MAJORITY OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY HAVE MOVED EAST OF VT BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE CLOSED UPR
LOW WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ANTICIPATE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREEN MTNS. HAVE
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ABOVE MEX-MOS NUMBERS GIVEN CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
WINDS; HAVE NOTED TENDENCY FOR MOS TO BE TOO COLD IN THESE
SITUATIONS. INDICATED LOW TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 20S FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH AN OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION SIGNATURE DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY THURSDAY AS CLOSED UPR LOW
STALLS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MOIST DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW REGIME ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW THAT WOULD MAINTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL TO NRN GREEN MTNS. SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE. IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.

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Actually getting a few flakes here flying around in the very strong northerlies that are blowing.

 

Cold too at 10F.

 

Doing a ski tour later today--going to be cold & crunchy, me thinks.

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Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

I was surprised to wake up to fresh snow this morning.  According to the BTV NWS forecast discussion there’s some Lake Champlain LES going on to our west, but that’s usually very localized, and based on the radar it seems like this could be moisture interacting with the Greens as it comes over from the system to our east:

 

17FEB13A.gif

 

Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 11.5 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

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I see a couple yellow pixels have set up shop and remain perfectly still about 7 miles to my east again.  Maybe there just aren't going to be any yellow pixels for me this winter.
Even if they were over you it probably would've blown to Barnstead. :(

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