KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really don't understand some of you. It is as if you can't bear to hear that the models have continued to shift east and later with the full development of system. When the NAM showed ridiculous amounts, it is the same people that declared this epic and got in their heads the idea that this could be a 2 foot snowstorm for our area. I personally never felt it was on the table and I'm ridiculed ? Sorry if it is not what you want to hear, and actually I will now post less to be so kind...but I think the posts that many of you are making about how far off the gfs is, etc.....are much more useless and now much more senseless....as the gfs was clearly on to something ! (Not ON something lol)....I was hoping for this one too so I'm sorry if its painful to hear that it shifted east, etc....but it DID. Staring at the area of low pressure and becoming delusional over how it is moving will not help. It is developing and moving as modeled and we are in line for close to or maybe just under a foot if snow. I said I thought 11-14" and supposedly I was being extremely negative and all....but now we very likely will barely get that. So again, I'm sorry if I've annoyed many of you and I will listless, but just realize that your senseless banter of how the gfs was horrible etc now is clearly just banter too and not "educated bashing". again 6z GFS looks nothing like the 12z NAM..yes NAM came slightly east,but it's night and day with precip amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ok, i have to ask. I am staring at the radar, and it looks like there are two low level swirls. One looks to be on top of Virginia Beach the other is south and east of that. Which one is the dominate one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is supposed to be a bad run for NYC? That sure looks like 1-1.5" of liquid equivalent falling as snow to me... Even doing a discount, that's a nice foot. not cut the QPF by 50% because its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at the radar out of Wakefield, VA. The precip shield is consolidating on the NW side and banding is organizing from Norfolk north. The problem won't be getting the stronger banding to form, it will be getting it far enough north and west so that we get it and New England doesn't. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=akq&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's 3-4" for where I am. Has me raining heavily from about 10AM until 4PM. Any you believe that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If I remember, 9 times out of 10, the deform band always sets up a bit west then progged, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not cut the QPF by 50% because its the NAM How have you not been 5 posted yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the sim radar on the hi-res nam shows the interaction between the northern stream and southern stream beautifully. Extends precip for an additional period once the two "bands" combine. Take a look if you guys can very interesting. Explains the sharp cut-off too can you please post a link to this model, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If I remember, 9 times out of 10, the deform band always sets up a bit west then progged, no? I'm not sure if that's a rule but I sure hope it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ice cold rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is supposed to be a bad run for NYC? That sure looks like 1-1.5" of liquid equivalent falling as snow to me... Even doing a discount, that's a nice foot. And that is probably higher than 10-1 ratio for a time. People should calm down. Anyone and everyone knew those NAM runs from yesterday were too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not cut the QPF by 50% because its the NAM This is false. The euro is similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sorry ace just saw your question Im using stormvista so cant post link...but 5in qpf line from nassau/suffolk border east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# It looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Any you believe that? Hmm, well, looking at the dual pol radar, possibly yeah. rain/snow line is now on shore and pushing through western Union Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How have you not been 5 posted yet? this thread is a disaster as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 For what it's worth Final 12z WSI RPM 12z has Trenton to NYC to West LI all in 4-6", North Jersey 6-8" and Eastern LI Maxing at 12" Also Philly to Jersey Shore 2-4". I still have NYC in 6-10" but expect low end of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys are funny stressing over the models. Now casting is a lot more fun, watching the little shifts, waiting for that phase, watching the precip shield expand or collapse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sorry ace just saw your question Im using stormvista so cant post link...but 5in qpf line from nassau/suffolk border east that you can probably cut in half - wonder how long it rains...It is raining where I am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ice cold rain here SPC meso showing that the surface freezing line continues to hover just NW of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And that is probably higher than 10-1 ratio for a time. People should calm down. Anyone and everyone knew those NAM runs from yesterday were too good to be true. The models do not take ratios into consideration as we cool down significantly the snow will go from wet to very dry and ratios increase to at least 12 to 1; if not more as temeratures drop rapidly. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And that is probably higher than 10-1 ratio for a time. People should calm down. Anyone and everyone knew those NAM runs from yesterday were too good to be true. What's sad is why was there anything to lead me to believe the 12z Euro yesterday was going to be too good to be true? It looks like that will easily be the case by an insane percentage downward unless something dramatic is amiss on all the guidance right now. I honestly think we fall short of 10 inches in EWR and KNYC when the 12z Euro yesterday was over 20 inches for both places. Long Island will have more fun with this, enjoy it! Considering this winter, 6 inches is a blessing anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If I remember, 9 times out of 10, the deform band always sets up a bit west then progged, no? Yes, however models are often too generous with QPF to the west of the main deform band, as there will likely be an area of subsidence. Kinda like how the Western NJ/Lehigh Valley got screwed during the boxing day blizzard, except this time I'm thinking the screwzone will be C/NNJ. Going to be some very angry and very happy people tonight depending on where in the NYC subregion you live, I'll tell you that for sure. Take this map and shift 25-30 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If I remember, 9 times out of 10, the deform band always sets up a bit west then progged, no? That appears to be a common theme but NW of where is the question. As is usual a few surprise will occur. Some will be delighted others not so much especially if they could not shake those images of last nights 0z NAM. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im going to solve all my expectation problems right now. I'm expecting an inch out of this storm. That's it btw there's still window of opportunity for an early phase. I live in Jersey City and according to some people here, I can expect anywhere from 2-15" XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC meso showing that the surface freezing line continues to hover just NW of the city what is the blue line, the 850 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What's sad is why was there anything to lead me to believe the 12z Euro yesterday was going to be too good to be true? It looks like that will easily be the case by an insane percentage downward unless something dramatic is amiss on all the guidance right now. I honestly think we fall short of 10 inches in EWR and KNYC when the 12z Euro yesterday was over 20 inches for both places. Long Island will have more fun with this, enjoy it! Considering this winter, 6 inches is a blessing anyway. Totals can add up very quickly if the banding sets up over the right place, and I don't see any reason why we don't at least get a good swipe from it as she pulls into New England. I'm really more in nowcast mode than anything else. But as we always expected, there's high bust potential here and the progressive flow was always a concern of mine. I could see how it ends up blossoming too late but I'm still optimistic, particularly from NYC east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Everyone calm down, from the experts NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...815 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHANGES ATTM.12Z ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NAM BEST FIT ON PRES. ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON6 HR QPF ENDING 12Z. HOWEVER THE MOST IMPORTANT...IT LOOKS LIKETHE GFS IS IN LARGE ERROR ON ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND THAT THE 06ZNAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATE...I.E. COLDER. CC ON THE821 AM RADAR SHOWS THE PHASE CHANGE VERY NICELY...FROM NEAR KUKT-JUST N OF KTTN TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KLDJ AND KBLM. WE`VE SEEN 48-52 KTGUSTS JUST EAST OF KORF AT 13Z.SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WINTER WARNINGS OR ADVISORIESIN PLACE. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. WILL BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ANDTONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# It looks good Low is slightly further west and about 4mb stronger than progged by NAM at 3 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looking at the regional radar from the mid-atlantic, you can see that while the western extent is definitely not expanding, it seems to be taking a north south orientation as the precip pivots up the coast. Also the swirl off the coast of VA is still moving NNE very slowly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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