Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

Recommended Posts

I really don't understand some of you. It is as if you can't bear to hear that the models have continued to shift east and later with the full development of system. When the NAM showed ridiculous amounts, it is the same people that declared this epic and got in their heads the idea that this could be a 2 foot snowstorm for our area. I personally never felt it was on the table and I'm ridiculed ? Sorry if it is not what you want to hear, and actually I will now post less to be so kind...but I think the posts that many of you are making about how far off the gfs is, etc.....are much more useless and now much more senseless....as the gfs was clearly on to something ! (Not ON something lol)....I was hoping for this one too so I'm sorry if its painful to hear that it shifted east, etc....but it DID. Staring at the area of low pressure and becoming delusional over how it is moving will not help. It is developing and moving as modeled and we are in line for close to or maybe just under a foot if snow. I said I thought 11-14" and supposedly I was being extremely negative and all....but now we very likely will barely get that. So again, I'm sorry if I've annoyed many of you and I will listless, but just realize that your senseless banter of how the gfs was horrible etc now is clearly just banter too and not "educated bashing".

again 6z GFS looks nothing like the 12z NAM..yes NAM came slightly east,but it's night and day with precip amounts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Look at the radar out of Wakefield, VA. The precip shield is consolidating on the NW side and banding is organizing from Norfolk north. The problem won't be getting the stronger banding to form, it will be getting it far enough north and west so that we get it and New England doesn't.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=akq&loop=yes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the sim radar on the hi-res nam shows the interaction between the northern stream and southern stream beautifully. Extends precip for an additional period once the two "bands" combine. Take a look if you guys can very interesting. Explains the sharp cut-off too

can you please post a link to this model, thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is supposed to be a bad run for NYC? That sure looks like 1-1.5" of liquid equivalent falling as snow to me... Even doing a discount, that's a nice foot.

And that is probably higher than 10-1 ratio for a time. :lol:

 

People should calm down. Anyone and everyone knew those NAM runs from yesterday were too good to be true.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And that is probably higher than 10-1 ratio for a time. :lol:

 

People should calm down. Anyone and everyone knew those NAM runs from yesterday were too good to be true.

The models do not take ratios into consideration as we cool down significantly the snow will go from wet to very dry and ratios increase to at least 12 to 1; if not more as temeratures drop rapidly.

 

Rossi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And that is probably higher than 10-1 ratio for a time. :lol:

 

People should calm down. Anyone and everyone knew those NAM runs from yesterday were too good to be true.

What's sad is why was there anything to lead me to believe the 12z Euro yesterday was going to be too good to be true? It looks like that will easily be the case by an insane percentage downward unless something dramatic is amiss on all the guidance right now. I honestly think we fall short of 10 inches in EWR and KNYC when the 12z Euro yesterday was over 20 inches for both places. Long Island will have more fun with this, enjoy it!

Considering this winter, 6 inches is a blessing anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I remember, 9 times out of 10, the deform band always sets up a bit west then progged, no?

Yes, however models are often too generous with QPF to the west of the main deform band, as there will likely be an area of subsidence. Kinda like how the Western NJ/Lehigh Valley got screwed during the boxing day blizzard, except this time I'm thinking the screwzone will be C/NNJ. Going to be some very angry and very happy people tonight depending on where in the NYC subregion you live, I'll tell you that for sure. 

NJSnow_20101226.png

Take this map and shift 25-30 miles east

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I remember, 9 times out of 10, the deform band always sets up a bit west then progged, no?

That appears to be a common theme but NW of where is the question. As is usual a few surprise will occur. Some will be delighted others not so much especially if they could not shake those images of last nights 0z NAM. Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What's sad is why was there anything to lead me to believe the 12z Euro yesterday was going to be too good to be true? It looks like that will easily be the case by an insane percentage downward unless something dramatic is amiss on all the guidance right now. I honestly think we fall short of 10 inches in EWR and KNYC when the 12z Euro yesterday was over 20 inches for both places. Long Island will have more fun with this, enjoy it!

Considering this winter, 6 inches is a blessing anyway.

Totals can add up very quickly if the banding sets up over the right place, and I don't see any reason why we don't at least get a good swipe from it as she pulls into New England. I'm really more in nowcast mode than anything else. But as we always expected, there's high bust potential here and the progressive flow was always a concern of mine. I could see how it ends up blossoming too late but I'm still optimistic, particularly from NYC east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone calm down, from the experts

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
815 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHANGES ATTM.

12Z ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NAM BEST FIT ON PRES. ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON
6 HR QPF ENDING 12Z. HOWEVER THE MOST IMPORTANT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GFS IS IN LARGE ERROR ON ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND THAT THE 06Z
NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATE...I.E. COLDER. CC ON THE
821 AM RADAR SHOWS THE PHASE CHANGE VERY NICELY...FROM NEAR KUKT-
JUST N OF KTTN TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KLDJ AND KBLM. WE`VE SEEN 48-52 KT
GUSTS JUST EAST OF KORF AT 13Z.


SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WINTER WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES
IN PLACE. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. WILL BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...