snywx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Agreed. Where I'm sitting in NW NJ, the closer it gets, the colder the storm is getting thanks to CCB. That faster phase let's that happen. Game. On. FINALLY! We are snow regardless.. Its a matter of precip amounts whether we get slammed or just a lgt event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 500mb closes on top of us you need the h7 and h8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the way this type of situation as depicted on the EURO sets up is using natural snow/rain boundary points such as anyone from a line from Perth Amboy NJ southwest to Trenton - another natural boundary away from the ocean is around Freehold and the next is usually around Toms River NJ and of course route 78 and 80 up north which one will be the main boundary between various precip types and duration is the question to be answered......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'd like to see 500mb more closed but it seems 700/850 are...4/6/82 was not closed at 500 til late but was at 850 and 700 yeah, i think h7 and h8 are more important, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Northwest areas still get into the very heavy snow as the CCB sets up from about Trenton north and east. Meanwhile as the city changes over us inland folks have been snow all along. Without having more data I don't want to speculate on totals but I would imagine the I-287 corridor gets slammed on this run. per the euro, assuming it is correct, the heavier precip and dynamics would be east of nyc, not northwest of nyc. And it would not be a huge hit of snow like its progging Boston to get, not even close. Ratios would not be that great either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would agree, if that CCB cranks as advertised I doubt many people see much rain except maybe the coast at the onset. Agree as well, I feel the city will be mostly frozen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Exactly, we learned on 12/25/02 and 4/6/82 it does not matter if the low is only 50 miles to your southeast, if its closed off at all levels in an even remotely cold air mass you're going to snow. Right , you cut off mid level warmth ( 925 ) and as you deepen just to you`re east , you rocket the 850`s to the surface . Not perfect , but living here there`s always something to contend with , but im happy with the trend . warning , ZERO rmargin for error , from here on in . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Keep in mind also, that you can still rack up very impressive totals in a highly dynamic system regardless of whether you change over or not. Some of the highest totals on 1/27/11 were in areas that mixed for quite a while. I'm wondering if the progressive nature of the pattern won't keep this moving quicker than presently advertised though, cutting down on the insane totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 per the euro, assuming it is correct, the heavier precip and dynamics would be east of nyc, not northwest of nyc. And it would not be a huge hit of snow like its progging Boston to get, not even close. Ratios would not be that great either that was basically my point before...NW burbs stay snow but precip isn't incredibly heavy. Still a solid 6-10in storm probably. Maybe more like 6-8in but its not that important to iron out details today. With the model mayhem over the past couple weeks lets see where we stand in 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We are snow regardless.. Its a matter of precip amounts whether we get slammed or just a lgt event. Have you seen any text output for Sussex County NJ and extreme Southern NYC counties per the Euro? I think you're right. If this thing really wraps up, there could be a sharp cutoff that hurts us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lets not forget we have a 1038 high to the North. if that low gets down to 976 as depicted. Wow. Thats 62mb pressure gradient over probably 1000miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 still 6-10 probably. BUt I was referring to the fact that total precip really ramps up as you go north and east. It's hard to get the really big accumulations out this way when the city and points east do well. Boxing day is an example. While I'll take my 14" and be happy, points just five miles to my east got into the better banding and recorded amounts exceeding 20". This seems like a unique situation where the CCB could come closer with a closer track and we might all benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 per the euro, assuming it is correct, the heavier precip and dynamics would be east of nyc, not northwest of nyc. And it would not be a huge hit of snow like its progging Boston to get, not even close. Ratios would not be that great either If the city gets hit hard, so will I. This doesn't appear to be a system with a sharp NW cut off. The WWA snow out ahead of the coastal will also add to totals up this way while the coast has BL issues early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Boston gets 3.25 QPF of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The 12z ECMWF looks like moderate to significant snowfall for the area. After some rain/mix at the start. The comma-head is much further west. Low deepens to 980mb low near 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Check out the bost QPF . EURO 3.5 - not 2.5 , warmest there 850`s get is MINUS 4 , would be insane if that verified would rival 78 , without the wind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Check out the bost QPF . EURO 3.5 - not 2.5 , warmest there 850`s get is MINUS 4 , would be insane if that verified would rival 78 , without the wind . Whats NYC total qpf? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 that was basically my point before...NW burbs stay snow but precip isn't incredibly heavy. Still a solid 6-10in storm probably. Maybe more like 6-8in but its not that important to iron out details today. With the model mayhem over the past couple weeks lets see where we stand in 36 hours. Hey look, with the past two winters anybody that would complain about a solid warning criteria snowfall should be shot. The potenital definitly exists though for a lot more. Looks like the perfect setup for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Check out the bost QPF . EURO 3.5 - not 2.5 , warmest there 850`s get is MINUS 4 , would be insane if that verified would rival 78 , without the wind . I can almost guarantee boston didn't see 3.5in qpf in 78. I know they did have insane snow amounts in parts of SNE but verbaitm for boston proper. That would be an absolutely unprecedented wind driven 3ft, yes 3 ft of snow. Drifts probably to 10ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Whats NYC total qpf? Rossi 2.0-2.5" Most of it is over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The 12z ECMWF looks like moderate to significant snowfall for the area. After some rain/mix at the start. The comma-head is much further west. Low deepens to 980mb low near 40/70. Strongly agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Whats NYC total qpf? Rossi Total precip into NYC is 1.3" (liquid equivalent) on the 12z ECMWF text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 2.0-2.5" Most of it is over LI. Well thats not NYC!!!! But thanks anyway. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Have you seen any text output for Sussex County NJ and extreme Southern NYC counties per the Euro? I think you're right. If this thing really wraps up, there could be a sharp cutoff that hurts us. Sharp cutoffs are always a possibility for us here in the NW burbs. The 2 things we have going for us is that there is almost always a secondary jackpot out here due to orographic enhancement, banding etc and things are still trending in our favor. Would not be surprised to see it continuing to develop an earlier phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Total precip into NYC is 1.3" (liquid equivalent) on the 12z ECMWF text. Can you check MMU qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Total precip into NYC is 1.3" (liquid equivalent) on the 12z ECMWF text. When does all start/end approximately? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 When does all start/end approximately? Rossi The bulk of the precip on the Euro is from 7 am Friday to 7 am Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It gets to 973 at the BM on this run . I cant imagine it gets better from here on in . Would be asking alot to improve on this run , considering some of the indicies . There`s 6 inches in here for a lot of people form NYC nw - and even onto LI . i would be very happy , if we can hold this look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 When does all star/end approximately? Rossi hr 78 precip has already begun, so maybe hr 75 which would mean 15z friday (roughly 10am). It goes for another 18hours until about saturday early morning. Maybe 3-4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I can almost guarantee boston didn't see 3.5in qpf in 78. I know they did have insane snow amounts in parts of SNE but verbaitm for boston proper. That would be an absolutely unprecedented wind driven 3ft, yes 3 ft of snow. Drifts probably to 10ft In a fast pattern like this it's very difficult for me to see anyone get that kind of actual output, but the totals would be very, very impressive once you get under where the CCB ultimately develops. This is definitely New England's storm if the phase happens-the question is how far southwest from there can we get the real impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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