MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If I were in Boston I would feel both excited and nervous at the same time because although it shows a bomb now, given this winter it could trend weaker and further south. This clearly isn't our storm, give it to SNE so someone can be happy How do you know it's not our storm? It is still 3 days away. I agree that SNE northward has a better chance than our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yes, go with the model that most closely resembles your desired outcome. All the models have trended towards the Euro so he has a point. Although, the Euro hasn't been stellar this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Like how much more? warning criteria? -skisheep No. Few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 And the northern stream needs to be stronger and more energetic in order for the phase to happen in the first place. And that works hand in hand with having a strong mid level center over the Great Lakes. So we're really working against a lose-lose situation right now. True. That would certainly be a bigger problem initially, but once the phase were to theoretically occur, the problem would also get alleviated quicker, as well. The 850mb low is stronger in this run than it was on the 0z GFS, but our 850s are the same. It has a bigger impact in areas just to the east of the 850 low, instead of areas well east of the 850mb low. You don't want that strong 850mb low to get too close to us, of course. But with higher pressures to our north and potentially a quicker dying primary, we can actually see a kink to the south in the 850mb isotherms towards our longitude, perhaps indicating that the initial primary low -- while certainly detrimental -- isn't the automatic kiss of death. We certainly need to thread a needle here. But I don't think this is impossible. 12z: 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If I were in Boston I would feel both excited and nervous at the same time because although it shows a bomb now, given this winter it could trend weaker and further south. This clearly isn't our storm, give it to SNE so someone can be happy There's a possibility it could be, but the setup argues much more for a New England storm. Our window of opportunity is way smaller than theirs because the storm looks like it will take a long time to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If I were in Boston I would feel both excited and nervous at the same time because although it shows a bomb now, given this winter it could trend weaker and further south. This clearly isn't our storm, give it to SNE so someone can be happy Anyone north and west of I-95 has a good chance at seeing mostly snow. Even with most of the CCB missing, we're still looking at mostly frozen for that area with a warning criteria snowfall possible. It's probably a SECS for us and a MECS for New England. The negativity needs to stop, just because this winter hasn't gone well so far doesn't mean things can't change on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I guess we will see what the Euro does but it doesn't look too good. The antecedent air mass is not good, the closed low over buffalo is killer, there's no blocking to hold the high in place. Unless something drastically changes in future runs than we have no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 No. Few inches Few inches better than nothing I suppose. Still time for it to trend better. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Anyone north and west of I-95 has a good chance at seeing mostly snow. Even with most of the CCB missing, we're still looking at mostly frozen for that area with a warning criteria snowfall possible. It's probably a SECS for us and a MECS for New England. The negativity needs to stop, just because this winter hasn't gone well so far doesn't mean things can't change on a dime. This run of the GFS is rain all the way back into PA, but west of 95 ends as a period of snow. Too much front end WAA below 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GEM is pretty ugly. Rain all the way to MA/NH borderhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GEM is pretty ugly. Rain all the way to MA/NH border http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html That's cool we get some snow showers tonight. Something we don't see to often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This run of the GFS is rain all the way back into PA, but west of 95 ends as a period of snow. Too much front end WAA below 850 mb. ne.gfsptype12-27.gif Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This run of the GFS is rain all the way back into PA, but west of 95 ends as a period of snow. Too much front end WAA below 850 mb. ne.gfsptype12-27.gif . Yea, the gfs is definitely not showing a snowstorm for nyc, or the immediate north and west suburbs. I just don't understand how someone can think it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This post is a pretty good read. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39166-feb-8th-9th-do-we-finally-get-a-coastal/?p=2073471 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GEM is pretty ugly. Rain all the way to MA/NH border http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It keeps the primary very strong. Northern New England gets a major storm getting the best of both worlds. The coastal then stays supressed. I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 An earlier phase would imply a stronger southeast ridge and warmer solution without any decent blocking. An earlier phase/transfer would be much better for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thank you The GFS has 3c 925 mb warm layer back into PA on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 An earlier phase/transfer would be much better for our area. I like to think about it this way: If the east solution isn't cold enough anyway, why not root for an earlier phase/transfer? That's the only way to erode that primary and get the secondary going early enough for a CCB to hit our area, and then maybe we can cool off that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 An earlier phase/transfer would be much better for our area. I think the only way you get the earlier phase is if the SE Ridge verifies stronger which wouldn't help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks similar to the Euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks similar to the Euro ensemble mean. Actually similiar. Here is the previous hour of the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think the only way you get the earlier phase is if the SE Ridge verifies stronger which wouldn't help us. Yeah it's tough because i haven't seen any setup like this so i don't really know what would be better/worse. GEFS look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The northern stream takes on starts taking negative tilt at 78hrs, over the Lakes. That causes the strong warm air surge aloft, we see at the height of the storm. If that northern stream weren't to go as quickly negative, then the warm air surge will be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GFS has 3c 925 mb warm layer back into PA on this run. I agree. I enjoy your realistic posting style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah it's tough because i haven't seen any setup like this so i don't really know what would be better/worse. GEFS look good If you get the earlier phase because of the northern stream digging further south rather than the southern stream coming more north, then that helps us a lot. Look at how much more the northern stream was digging on this run vs the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think the only way you get the earlier phase is if the SE Ridge verifies stronger which wouldn't help us. An earlier phase will get the CCB cranking sooner. With a mature CCB over the area in February it's going to snow, I don't care what the models are currently showing. As some mets have said, we can afford a track closer to the coast and most of us can still be snow. A few 's living on the water may need to be sacraficed for the good of the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The northern stream takes on starts taking negative tilt at 78hrs, over the Lakes. That causes the strong warm air surge aloft, we see at the height of the storm. If that northern stream weren't to go as quickly negative, then the warm air surge will be less. 12zGFSf78.gif Good observation. Hopefully we can get the northern stream to phase with the southern stream without having to make the northern stream become negative first. I do think it's possible for us to get a nice CCB of snow out of this, but there is still so much that can go wrong. At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There is a strong signal for backend snows from 83-90 hours or so for the coastal areas....the GFS soundings at JFK/LGA at 84 hours show it being rain still but the entire column has N-NNE winds by that time and its likely changing over to snow....we could still use a further south phase by a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GEFS says NYC metro still in the game http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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