IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I agree. I enjoy your realistic posting style Did noreaster27 hack your account or has the lack of a big storm really gotten to you that badly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Pretty similar setup and we did very well here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GEFS says NYC metro still in the game http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12084.gif I wouldn't be forecasting a major snow storm at this point but anyone that thinks that any one solution is off the table right now has obviously not been tracking weather that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 An earlier phase will get the CCB cranking sooner. With a mature CCB over the area in February it's going to snow, I don't care what the models are currently showing. As some mets have said, we can afford a track closer to the coast and most of us can still be snow. A few 's living on the water may need to be sacraficed for the good of the people. Well and earlier phase would increase the chances that the interior would get into the CCB and go over to snow sooner. But I would like to see some model continuity before jumping on any one model solution just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GEFS says NYC metro still in the game http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12084.gif Surface temps might be ugly though even though 850's below freezing? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well and earlier phase would increase the chances that the interior would get into the CCB and go over to snow sooner. But I would like to see some model continuity before jumping on any one model solution just yet. Well and earlier phase would increase the chances that the interior would get into the CCB and go over to snow sooner. But I would like to see some model continuity before jumping on any one model solution just yet. Agreed, probably the biggest Euro run so far this winter coming up shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Could be a classic NW suburbs wet snow bomb...would enjoy that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Surface temps might be ugly though even though 850's below freezing? -skisheep GEFS have the 2m freezing line southeast of the area at hr 84. Granted this is an old run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This post is a pretty good read. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39166-feb-8th-9th-do-we-finally-get-a-coastal/?p=2073471 Such a sensible line of thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Agreed, probably the biggest Euro run so far this winter coming up shortly. The models seem to really struggle with this fast split flow patterns. No matter what happens, the GFS inability to see the southern stream until last night is a really big problem with that model that we have seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How do you know it's not our storm? It is still 3 days away. I agree that SNE northward has a better chance than our area. The negative energy is amazing in here this year. If it were 2 or 3 winters ago everyone would be finding ways for this to happen. This winter its the opposite, total concentration on why a given event will not happen. Its a mob mentality, anyone who is the least bit optimistic is torn up!! Even if I see only an inch I would rather have that in association with a coastal (I surf in the winter and coastals are great for waves) then the crap we have been having. Plus it says the pattern can produce which could mean something down the line, there is still plenty of winter left. I am not writing this off for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The models seem to really struggle with this fast split flow patterns. No matter what happens, the GFS inability to see the southern stream until last night is a really big problem with that model that we have seen before. None of the globals have performed very well so far this winter. The ECMWF has busted pretty badly this winter especially, but since the GFS appears to be trending towards it I think some skeptical people will come around if the Euro holds serve in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GEFS says NYC metro still in the game http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12084.gif Shouldn't have to say this by now but that's a smoothed out mean. The question is -- do the members that show an abundance of precip for NYC also show cool enough temperatures for it to be a mostly frozen event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The negative energy is amazing in here this year. If it were 2 or 3 winters ago everyone would be finding ways for this to happen. This winter its the opposite, total concentration on why a given event will not happen. Its a mob mentality, anyone who is the least bit optimistic is torn up!! Even if I see only an inch I would rather have that in association with a coastal (I surf in the winter and coastals are great for waves) then the crap we have been having. Plus it say the pattern can produce which could mean something down the line, there is still plenty of winter left. I am not writing this off for a second. This is a real problem in our sub-forum and a major reason why a lot of the better mets post in either Philly or New England instead. Someone posted yesterday, "If it's snowing in an irrelevant place is it really snowing?". Comments like that make me throw up in my mouth. The amount of arrogance is only surpassed by their ignorance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Some of the gefs are a pretty snowy For our area. Either Ccb or the streams stay separate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Shouldn't have to say this by now but that's a smoothed out mean. The question is -- do the members that show an abundance of precip for NYC also show cool enough temperatures for it to be a mostly frozen event? The really amped solutions further west are wetter while the more suppressed solutions have hardly any precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I do think this is a thread the needle scenario as far as us getting a good snowstorm is concerned, but I don't think it's impossible to thread that needle.In my opinion, we need:1) A quicker phase between the northern and southern stream. This would allow the southern stream secondary to take over quicker, helping the primary to erode quicker, which may actually lead the 1038 high to the north to make a difference, as opposed to our winds being influenced by that primary. In other words, a quicker phase can not only lead to a CCB, but much better access to the colder source region to the north.2) More likely than not, it has to be due more so because of a northern stream shortwave that digs more rather than the southern stream wave simply trending more north. That is going to be tough, but the 12z GFS definitely was digging more than the 0z GFS was.3) The northern stream to dig more but also not become negatively tilted.4) Although we want the northern stream more amplified for a better chance at a phase, we do not want it becoming too strong, so that we are at "the point of no return" with its surge of warmth. Fortunately, it is February.One thing is that with higher pressures to our north, the 850mb low in the Lakes is not necessarily the kiss of death, because we can actually get somewhat of a kink to the south with the 850mb isotherms at our longitude. The primary in the Lakes screws over C PA and the Binghamton area more than it does to us, assuming we can get a transfer to occur early enough. The 850s do briefly warm above 0C for our area, but that's because we are essentially at the latitude of the transfer as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Also gefs are weaker with primary to lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Some of these are not too bad. P006 was the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Also gefs are weaker with primary to lakes Yes it is weaker. Op is most likely too strong with the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Having a weaker primary and having it be able to phase earlier would be ideal. I'm not sure that's realistically possible, though, as often more amplified shortwaves lead to stronger storms. But I suppose it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GEM is pretty ugly. Rain all the way to MA/NH border http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html right, with a 1044 hP north of the border... but wouldnt this just be the ultimate kick in the nuts...we finally get a real storm, with a strong high and it rains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 right, with a 1044 hP north of the border... but wouldnt this just be the ultimate kick in the nuts...we finally get a real storm, with a strong high and it rains... It's always the overpowered primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This Euro run is so crucial right now imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Seems the phase is occurring earlier on the 12z euro at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 WeatherGod predicts a massive hit on the 12z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Seems the phase is occurring earlier on the 12z euro at hr 60 Keep the reports coming, the anticipation is killing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm sorry for my previous post. Hr 66 low over Ohio and 1006 over sc. 540 south of Phl and surface along 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I can not disappoint earthlight but it appears as if the NOGAPS is further west with the coastal at 84 hrs ..and also keeps the primary on the strong side prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is a real problem in our sub-forum and a major reason why a lot of the better mets post in either Philly or New England instead. Someone posted yesterday, "If it's snowing in an irrelevant place is it really snowing?". Comments like that make me throw up in my mouth. The amount of arrogance is only surpassed by their ignorance. I know this belongs in the banter thread - just like your post above - BUT IMO everyone is entitled to their own opinion and feelings about individual storms and this entire season - so lets knock it off with the personal attacks - this is weather and even the most seasoned METS have busted badly at some point this season - just take a look at some of the winter seasonal forecasts from back in October and November - bust after bust - anyways to not make this a complete banter post it is encouraging to see some individual GEFS members show a snowy solution for friday in NYC ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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