LakeEffectKing Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Yesterday, where my father lives (Constantia/Bernhard's Bay area, north shore of Oneida Lake): (Photo credit to Mike from Constantia): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 1.75" hail reported (somewhat) locally yesterday in a TOR warned cell. Snow this (Memorial Day) weekend in the Adirondacks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 BTW, I'm really starting to think (was a bit yesterday also, after seeing several runs of the Euro) that the NWS, and local TV stations in CNY are going to have their forecasts bust pretty big this weekend. Sunny and low to mid 60's is appearing more unlikely....maybe rainy and low 50's (for areas east of BGM, SYR, ART????). NAM just "caved" to Euro. Watch as TV stations start to introduce "showers" and cooler forecast temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Here's an amazing picture of that same cell when it was near Fulton. This was taken by a fellow student at Oswego who saw that wall cloud clearly rotating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Here's an amazing picture of that same cell when it was near Fulton. This was taken by a fellow student at Oswego who saw that wall cloud clearly rotating. Whoa! That is a rare site for these parts! Very nice! BTW, good luck at Penn St. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Whoa! That is a rare site for these parts! Very nice! BTW, good luck at Penn St. Thanks! Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 local Mets saying higher elevations around here could see some snow showers Friday night. Been showing up in the in house models at the local television stations around here for several runs. Pretty crazy to even have a chance of snow showers memorial day weekend especially considering a couple days ago it was 88 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Wow, great picture. Here's an amazing picture of that same cell when it was near Fulton. This was taken by a fellow student at Oswego who saw that wall cloud clearly rotating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Nice Picture! Looking forward to the incoming heat wave. It has been far to cold here recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Wedge tornado intercept. Absolutely insane video. Probably the most intense Tornado video I've ever seen. Right in the middle of a possible EF3-EF5 storm. Who knows how strong, it was in middle of fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Saw my first tornado today in Bennington, KS. We watched the storm develop from a cumulus cloud to an intense supercell producing a beautiful wedge tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestWind Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Saw my first tornado today in Bennington, KS. We watched the storm develop from a cumulus cloud to an intense supercell producing a beautiful wedge tornado. That is a beauty! Glad it appears to be in a mostly open area. Are you on a storm chase tour? I saw my first tornado (which looked pretty similar to the one you just posted) in South Dakota in 2010 while chasing with Tempest Tours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 That is a beauty! Glad it appears to be in a mostly open area. Are you on a storm chase tour? I saw my first tornado (which looked pretty similar to the one you just posted) in South Dakota in 2010 while chasing with Tempest Tours. Thanks. I'm currently out with a storm chasing group from SUNY Oswego with a bunch of fellow students and one of our professors. We'll be out here for the next week and a half. Hopefully we'll see some more severe weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Here is my brief recap of the bow echo / possible Tornado that moved through here this evening...I'm now located in Ballston Lake, NNW of Clifton Park center in Saratoga County. As the line approached, sky turned black with maybe a slight greenish tint. The wind went from eerie calm to very gusty in a short period of time. I knew the bow was coming back when it pushed east of Utica, but had everything off while we were playing with the kids. 3 of our 4 animals went berserk, so I popped on the computer and saw the tornado warning. Moved the family into the basement just in case, but no damage that I could see (worst missed just to our south). This isn't my first tornado warning here in ENY. I'd be interested in any studies done on severe weather in the Upstate NY area from say Columbia County up to the Glens Falls area. Here in Saratoga especially, we seem to get hit more frequently by severe weather than anywhere else in the northeast I've lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Thanks. I'm currently out with a storm chasing group from SUNY Oswego with a bunch of fellow students and one of our professors. We'll be out here for the next week and a half. Hopefully we'll see some more severe weather today. Hey, are you with Dave Eichorn? I know he is out on a chase tour. If so, tell him "hello" from George....he probably remembers me as "George from Parish". Stay safe. Great shots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Hey, are you with Dave Eichorn? I know he is out on a chase tour. If so, tell him "hello" from George....he probably remembers me as "George from Parish". Stay safe. Great shots! Thanks. Yeah Dave is the assistant forecaster for our group and he's been doing a great job with the severe weather this week. I'll tell him you say hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Thanks. Yeah Dave is the assistant forecaster for our group and he's been doing a great job with the severe weather this week. I'll tell him you say hello. Hope all is well, after hearing of the craziness of the Fri-Sat chase events. A nice recap of your trip would be super appreciated when you get the opportunity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Hope all is well, after hearing of the craziness of the Fri-Sat chase events. A nice recap of your trip would be super appreciated when you get the opportunity! Yeah everyone is fine. We did end up chasing northwest of OKC near El Reno and got caught in some of the traffic congestion. I can post a more detailed account of the whole trip shortly after we get back this Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Yeah everyone is fine. We did end up chasing northwest of OKC near El Reno and got caught in some of the traffic congestion. I can post a more detailed account of the whole trip shortly after we get back this Sunday. Great...looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Man, this is some nice summer weather...low 60's, cloudy, and torrential rain almost every day! </sarcasm> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the minister Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I know that this is only my 4th summer in Upstate NY...but...it is it this unusual to be having such a cold weather year??? I just remember thinking to myself in February - "Man, if we can just get to March." And then in March - "Man, if we can just get to April," and so on. June 11th and I'm cold, and I think I've only been able to sit on the back porch 5 or 6 days so far. I just don't remember it being like this in 2010-2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It's disgusting. Why is it so much harder to model storms in the summer than the winter? You hardly ever see a jog in the heavy precip shield from "the PA/NY border" to Syracuse and points north overnight. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Goes to show you how much futher we need to progress with forecasting...even just 12 hours ahead (in situations like this where the heavy precip was off by almost 100 miles). Also, the delay in updating the official forecast (HWO just being released at 9:13am in the midst of heavy rain for 1.5hrs and minor flooding already) could use some improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Goes to show you how much futher we need to progress with forecasting...even just 12 hours ahead (in situations like this where the heavy precip was off by almost 100 miles). Also, the delay in updating the official forecast (HWO just being released at 9:13am in the midst of heavy rain for 1.5hrs and minor flooding already) could use some improvement. MCS's are no fun to model. The dynamics that go into creating LP so quickly are what give most models the issues. Once the LP forms, the models generally can then sharpen the potential boundaries of heavy qpf.....actually, the fact that the models depicted cyclogenisis so far out (days ago) from an MCS is quite an improvement from a decade ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 MCS's are no fun to model. The dynamics that go into creating LP so quickly are what give most models the issues. Once the LP forms, the models generally can then sharpen the potential boundaries of heavy qpf.....actually, the fact that the models depicted cyclogenisis so far out (days ago) from an MCS is quite an improvement from a decade ago. Agreed. By no means am I trying to imply that forecasting MCS's is easy. Having a Met degree, I understand some of the complexities involved. Props to the Mets involved! With that said, here's a snippet from the BUF AFD from 7:55PM yesterday evening: GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...WITH THESE LIKELY TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY NORTHWARD. THERE STILL IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE HEAVY RAINS WILL MAKE IT INTO NEW YORK IF SOME OF THE OUTLIER MODEL GUIDANCE VERIFIES. Maybe they can check those 'outlier' models and see where they went 'right' and where the others went 'wrong'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I know that this is only my 4th summer in Upstate NY...but...it is it this unusual to be having such a cold weather year??? I just remember thinking to myself in February - "Man, if we can just get to March." And then in March - "Man, if we can just get to April," and so on. June 11th and I'm cold, and I think I've only been able to sit on the back porch 5 or 6 days so far. I just don't remember it being like this in 2010-2012? The last few years have been incredibly warm and sunny here in WNY, this year is completely different. I can only remember a handful of days in the 80s....Has been absolutely brutal, ZERO beach days. I worked hard all year in the gym for this body, I want to go to the beach! Haha! I am expecting a much warmer July/August though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 our basement flooded in west seneca yesterday. Looks like we were at the pic-center of rains in that heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 our basement flooded in west seneca yesterday. Looks like we were at the pic-center of rains in that heavy band. yes quite a number of road closures in WA,Elms,and OP due to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I know that this is only my 4th summer in Upstate NY...but...it is it this unusual to be having such a cold weather year??? I just remember thinking to myself in February - "Man, if we can just get to March." And then in March - "Man, if we can just get to April," and so on. June 11th and I'm cold, and I think I've only been able to sit on the back porch 5 or 6 days so far. I just don't remember it being like this in 2010-2012? Thats why my wife made me move to Sacramento. Just sun and 90 everyday. How boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Thats why my wife made me move to Sacramento. Just sun and 90 everyday. How boring. drive a couple hours east on I-80 in the winter and things definitley wont be so boring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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