TJay

I'd say a few inches

I cant even get it to display right I never used it either,

This one isn't for us,. Its backed off a lot here in Rockland, light snow now. Temps seem to be around 32, most of what came down this moring is quickly melting away

For the lower valley MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST WED JAN 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NJ/NYC METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND/SRN AND ERN CT/RI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 261612Z - 262015Z ONGOING SNOWFALL WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HIGHER RATES FROM NERN NJ THROUGH NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA...ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO SRN EXTENT OF CT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. SNOWFALL RATES /UP TO 1 IN PER HR/ WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN CT INTO RI THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA SWWD INTO NERN/CENTRAL NJ MAY TRANSITION TO A BRIEF 1-2 HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. AT 1545Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW...EXTENDING FROM BWI/PHL NEWD TO NYC AREA INTO SWRN NEW ENGLAND. ENELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE 0 C IN THE 750-850 MB LAYER FROM CENTRAL NJ TO THE NYC AREA...RESULTING IN VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF A TRANSITION TO SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW BY 17-18Z. THESE THERMODYNAMIC TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE RUC AND 09Z SREF. FARTHER NE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON /20Z/...AND THEN A POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN WITH THE SNOW. ..PETERS.. 01/26/2011

NYZ067-068-270515- /O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-110127T1100Z/ ORANGE-PUTNAM- 1112 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN PUTNAM. * TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOW LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW LIKELY FALLING THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

wow big difference from when I left,The clouds were socked in good

12Z NAM has the triple low that it showed last night, I guess its having feedback issues. Upton threw out last nights 0z NAM

Back home it looked like it was ready to snow, the air was so moist my Pilot was covered in "dew" @19F. The only reason it didn't freeze is its covered in salt

Light snow changing to heavy snow with huge flakes within two minutes with 2/10 tenths of a mile visibility on I87 from Suffern on east in Rockland. Roads are covered. So much for this thing starting late afternoon/evening.

This is what happens when a 1000 \'s of hit NCEP at the same time The NAM says not much snow for us weird run. SREF looks pretty good

JB plays the JMA card I never thought highly of it but someone mentioned in the NYC thread last night that within 72 hours its very good. Who knows if thats correct but we'll see shortly. ]MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 140 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 29/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS. ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST DAYS 1 AND 2... PREFERENCE: GEM GLOBAL OR UKMET THE NAM AND GFS TRACK THIS CYCLONE EAST OF THE ECMWF...WHICH POPS THE CONSOLIDATED SURFACE LOW RIGHT ON THE DELMARVA SHORE 00Z/27 THURSDAY. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET FORCE THE LOW JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE START OF DAY 2...WHICH FITS CLIMATOLOGY THE BEST FOR THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH HAS FINALLY SETTLED OUT AFTER DAYS OF DISPARATE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

Euro QPF Map from the Philly Thread, not to shabby depending on where you're located http://www.americanw...post__p__359411

We still have a shot, we are real close to cashing in. Dr No in a few minutes....

Don't look good for us being on the wrong side of the fringe zone for big snow, lets see what the euro says. 12ZNAM Total QPF 12Z GFS Total QPF

Yes, it took me two hours to get in, really ridicules delays on Rt17 because of 2 to 3 inches of snow and messy unattended to road

Yes I certainly didn't expect to read that but we should know by lunchtime

WEDNESDAY`S STORM. LATEST SREF...GFS...GEFS AND ECMWF USED FOR THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS TAKE LOW THAT IS FORMING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND TRACK IT TO NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO OVER THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT APPEARS TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK. CONCERNS ABOUT MODEL GUIDANCE ARE HIGH DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE PCPN BEING GENERATED THROUGH MODEL PARAMETRIZATION. THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND THE DYNAMIC BUILDING OF THE DOWN STREAM RIDGE ARE AFFECTED. THUS...WHILE MODEL TRACK IS CLUSTERED NICELY...HUMAN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE ACTUAL TRACK. THE NAM IS AN INTERESTING EXAMPLE...AND WHILE BEING DISCARDED FOR FORECAST INTEGRATION...IT IS RIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLED TRACK AND PRODUCES ZERO QPF. HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GET INCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUS EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA. PTYPE IS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WARM NOSE ALOFT. EVEN INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MIXED PCPN. A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE WITH MORE RAIN TO THE EAST. OF COURSE WITH TRACK AND QPF AMOUNT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...ANY SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LOW...EVEN INLAND. WINDS. LOW END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (G 40 KT) APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN SESSION (LONG ISLAND AND SE CT). LASTLY FLOODING...THERE IS CURRENTLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT WATER IT THE SNOW COVER. WITH POTENTIAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT ADDED ON TO THIS FOR EASTERN SESSIONS (LONG ISLAND AND SE CT)...PONDING/URBAN/BASEMENT FLOODING ARE A CONCERN. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES IS SIGNIFICANT. TIMING FOR PCPN ONSET IS MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION INCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RUSH HOURS SHOULD BE DRY. ENDING IS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER LIGHT SN ON THURSDAY AM. &&

I believe I have seen him on air. YNN has so many on air mets it easy to confuse them I "think" I read when TWC rolled it out in April of this year here that the on air studio was going to be in Albany until they finshed building one in the TWC Hudson Valley main facility in Middletown (Wallkill).It think it still comes out of Albany on air with local reporters. I think they messed up the weather forecast last night with Albany's. They called for air temps to be from -15 to -25 this morning

On YNN news this morning they listed two HV districts, one had a delay and the other canceled classes.

down to -3 this am.

13 here @ 6PM, currently 12F. I haven't gotten below 1F this winter, tonight might be the night.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 135 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 VALID JAN 23/1200 UTC THRU JAN 27/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH TUESDAY... PREFERENCE: NAM OR ECMWF THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE REGARDING TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS...WHICH PRODUCED A FAST AND DEEP OUTLIER SOLUTION...HAS TRENDED WEAKER/SLOWER...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH-UP WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. THUS...ITS SOLUTION IS IGNORED. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE NEW UKMET/GEM REGIONAL...RECOMMEND EITHER THE NAM OR ECMWF. ...LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST MON-WED... PREFERENCE: MIDWAY BETWEEN UKMET/ECMWF...WITH NAM CLOSE AT 78-84 HRS THE LOW TRACK...AND LIKELY STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AS WELL...APPEAR DIRECTLY RELATED TO BOTH NORTHERN AND UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS ATTRIBUTED TO ITS FASTER/DEEPER SOLUTION ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. TO ITS CREDIT...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE PLAYING CATCH UP. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS OVER THE PACIFIC...WHICH ARE BELIEVED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ITS SLOWER/WEAKER SOLUTION ACROSS THE WEST...AND ULTIMATELY...TO A LOW TRACK WHICH IS DEEPER AND JUST NORTH OF THE GFS. THUS...ITS SOLUTION IS NOT PREFERRED. FINALLY...THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER/SLOWER AND TOWARD THE PREFERRED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE WEST WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR ITS SLOWER LOW TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEW ECMWF ALSO SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREFERRED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS...ITS SOLUTION APPEARS EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE AS THE UKMET WHICH WAS THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. TO ADDRESS THE CONTINUED SOLUTION SPREAD AND ACCOMPANYING POTENTIAL ERRORS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS...RECOMMEND AN INTERMEDIATE POSITION/INFLUENCES FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF. IN TERMS OF NCEP GUIDANCE...THE NAM'S POSITION AT 78-84 APPEARS QUITE GOOD...BUT IS OTHERWISE CONSIDERED TOO FAR SOUTH AND NOT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WITH A SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE 09Z SREF MEAN IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT ANY POINT SINCE THE NAM/GFS PARENT MEMBERS FROM THE 00-06Z CYCLE WERE NOT PREFERRED.

Low of 1 this moring.

The documentary was very good, seen it on HBO. Its interesting to see how he used to create the songs, the quality of his music is refleted in that effort. The 25th Anniversary R&R concert DVD's are fantastic. Thanks for the MP3 tip. I noticed the wind picking up on my way in after clearing the driveway. I was getting blown around a bit. Next weeks storm looks like its going to be fun watching it get nailed down on guidance.

3.8 here. I need to pick that up, How are the DVD video's?