TJay

Thanks for posting, here is the map for it.

Started snowing here

I hven't had a lot of time to keep up with the storm today but I heard Craig Allen on CBS AM on the drive home voicing some concern about the storm not bombing out in time for the area.

This is from yesterdays ALB AFD ...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO POETIC...

Whoever writes the AFD's there sure is a character. They did the same thing yesterday THE CHAIN REACTION AND EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CREATE SNOW MUSHROOM CLOUDS AND STELLAR DENDRITIC SNOW CLUSTER FALLOUT. WELL...THAT MIGHT BE OVERSTATED A LITTLE BIT.

ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 1148 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. * HAZARDS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

I assume the 14-18 range extends down to Dutchess, Putnam, Westchester, Rockland and Orange?

Andy;s map in his storm thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7912-jan-11th-12th-snow-threat-is-real/page__view__findpost__p__264922

Upton latest [/url] AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 119 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOW REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --SHORTWAVE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING CLOSED LOW ROTATES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SW..BUT PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ENSURE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PLENTY OF MIXING UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS. WINDS FINALLY ABATE LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPS...SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER MIXING DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH...TEMPS AROUND FREEZING FOR HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS AT ALL LEVELS AS TROUGH DEPARTS. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER MID WEST AND MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT ON OUR CWA. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A ECMWF/SREF/GFS BLEND HERE...WITH EMPHASIS ON OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THAT SOLUTION CLUSTERS WELL WITH GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES OVERALL. NAM IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WITH GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH REGARD TO TRACK. NEITHER CAN BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. NAM IS SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE...THUS THE WESTERN TRACK. AGAIN...THIS COULD VERY WELL OCCUR...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD CLUSTERED GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. BY DOING THAT...LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. EVEN WESTERN TRACK OF THE NAM PRODUCES SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DUE TO THE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS STRONGER WINDS BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A MIXTURE ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS WOULD OCCUR IN A NAM SOLUTION WITH A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HEAVY SNOW JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL LI. DUE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...AND FRONTOGENESIS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE STORM...BANDING AND HEAVIER PRECIP A GOOD BET. ASSUMING A TRACK NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TOTAL FROM NYC EAST. IF NAM IS CORRECT...A SHIFT IN THIS AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO THE WEST WOULD BE WARRANTED...PLACING BULLSEYE FROM AROUND NYC NORTH AND WEST. AT THIS TIME...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED FAST TRACK TO THE SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY. LI AND SRN CT WOULD HOLD ON TO THE SNOW A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL BUT NOT GET TOO DETAILED WITH REGARD TO TIMING YET AS UPPER TROUGH STILL TRIGGERS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...THUS HAMPERING ANY CLEANUP EFFORTS. LOOKING FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES GENERALLY. OF COURSE HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER BANDS WHICH IS TOUGH TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. AMOUNTS COULD BE TEMPERED IF A MIX OCCURS OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS

Thanks for the euro qpf Radders

GFS is wide right with about .50 for the area.

0Z NAM Even cut in half it still a great storm but it will not play out as modeled ATM but nice trends none the less KSWF KPOU

SREF came in NW, 0ZNAM continues, keeps the low close to the coast and bombs out JIT to slam the HV on a dream run.

Albany THE NEXT SYSTEM...LOOKS TO BE A PHASING OF THE CURRENT GULF COAST SYSTEM...AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CURRENTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOURCES OF GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. GULF COAST SYSTEM QUITE DYNAMIC NOW...BUT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DEAMPLIFICATION AND WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOOTPRINT WILL STILL EXIST...LIKE A FUSE THAT JUST NEEDS TO BE RE-LIT. THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS PREDICTED TO EMERGE OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE GULF STREAM AND THERMAL GRADIENT BAROCLINICITY LIGHTING THE FUSE. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT SOME ENSUING CONVECTIVE FIREWORKS AND THE SNOW BOMBS BURSTING IN AIR AS THE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. O.K. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO POETIC...BUT SOME HINTS AT CONVECTIVE CHARACTER TO SYSTEM WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING...THAT COULD STEER THE SYSTEM ALONG THE MORE NORTHWESTERN PREDICTED TRACKS IN GUIDANCE. WIND ANOMALIES AT 850 HPA SUGGEST BETTER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ADVECION OFF ATLANTIC...BUT CLOSED UPPER LOW DOES LOOK PROGRESSIVE...NOT AN UPPER CUT OFF...EVIDENT IN 250 HPA WIND ANOMALIES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IMPRESSIVE...AND BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD CUT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC -12C TO -18C GROWTH ZONE IN A RELATIVELY DECENT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ON WHERE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OF >2"+ PER HOUR COULD SET UP. BIGGEST SNOWS COULD BE SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...OR COULD SHIFT A BIT WEST TOWARD THE BERKSHIRES...EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. SO...ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...BUT FOR NOW...UNTIL THE EVENT GETS CLOSER...THE BIGGEST IMPACTS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND OR EAST OF THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER AND SOUTH OF VT...PERHAPS POU THROUGH LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...MAYBE TO PSF...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN ANY DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE AS THE EVENT GETS NEARER. AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE HUDSON VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN CATSKILLS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SNOWS AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM. AGAIN...A SLIGHT NORTHWEST SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...AND HEAVIER SNOWS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT TO SOUTHERN VT...STAY TUNED.

We spend so much time tracking these storms and dealing their effects that the beauty of them gets lost. Our snow season started about a month late but mother nature seems intent on catching up now.

Nice. I got down to 11F.

I picked up another .5 with the light stuff this evening.

I was just out with my dogs. The beauty of this snowfall is sublime. Pine tree branches perfectly touched with snow, the fallen powder on the branches and the ground catches the light and a million flawless diamonds sparkle on the landscape. Perfection.

lol Its 4.2. I gota teach the kid

My daughter said we got 7 but I am going to recheck that when I get home

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 AM CST FRI JAN 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY / FAR SWRN MA / CT / LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 071646Z - 072045Z SWATH OF PRIMARILY MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES OVER NJ AND NYC METRO LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE IN A NARROW/INTENSIFYING BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR AS IT DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY VICINITY AND MOVES EWD ACROSS MOST OF CT BY EARLY EVENING. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING NW-SE FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO NRN NJ. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM NJ TO THE TIDEWATER VICINITY WHILE A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS NWWD FROM 150 MI S BID TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. LONG LOOP OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 1630Z SHOWS A PV ANOMALY BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD FROM NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE TOWARDS THE NYC METRO. THIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME PROVIDED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT SPEED MAX OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS. AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPPER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL FAVORABLY JUXTAPOSE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED LOW LEVEL THETA-E PLUME--THEREBY ALLOWING A GREATER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION RESPONSE. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD LEND SUPPORT IN THE EVENTUAL NARROWING/INTENSIFICATION OF SHALLOW CONVECTION. SUITE OF LATEST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS REINFORCES THE IDEA OF A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING BY THE 18-20Z TIMEFRAME AND MOVING W TO E ACROSS MUCH OF CT THROUGH 00Z. THIS BAND WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH/HR FOR A FEW HOURS. FARTHER S OVER LONG ISLAND...ALTHOUGH TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S IN PLACES...COLD PROFILE ALOFT WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT PRIMARILY WET SNOW /PERHAPS BRIEF INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN/...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES. ..SMITH.. 01/07/2011

Rt 17 east Goshen to western Monroe snow covered max speed 45. Westbound clear East bound Monroe to Thurway clear 65 mph. Thurway south from Rt 17 perfect not a snowflake on the road in Orange 65mph. As soon I hit Rockland snowcovered with center lane the only one passable in most areas 30MPH. State roads in Rockland unplowed/unsalted.

Less qpf on the 0z NAM, extract for KSWF says .37

Hey Pit, glad you found your way here

I left Staten Island and Manhattan work years ago, I don't know hw I did it so long