wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Interesting..they both show a very similar jet stream structure, except the EURO does not flood us with warmth. I don't think the GFS looks THAT bad. If we could get the NAO to become just a little more negative or the ridge out west to become sharper, it wouldn't be that bad for us. Continuation of clipper express? Ugh, please no clipper express again. February is for big SW storms, January is the clipper express, and that ship already sailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Ugh, please no clipper express again. February is for big SW storms, January is the clipper express, and that ship already sailed. Hey, I'm with you there...but SW storms haven't exactly performed well for Michigan lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 As an example, 0z GEFS 6-10, 11-15 day mean precipitation totals. Copious amounts, no. But not void of action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm not neccesarily calling for September-December level nothingness but those 500 mb height patterns don't look at all snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm not neccesarily calling for September-December level nothingness but those 500 mb height patterns don't look at all snowy. ...and let's not forget that on the heels of day 10 we start the transition into the Roger Smith mega torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 And to be clear, I'm not saying it's a snowy pattern for all either. It's not. Just saying it won't be completely boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 And to be clear, I'm not saying it's a snowy pattern for all either. It's not. Just saying it won't be completely boring. yeah, the past couple days have been the most interesting in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 In December, we saw, literally, no snow until late evening Dec 20th. By New Years Eve, we had a thick blanket of snow on the ground and had just come off a late surge that had us finish an inch ABOVE normal. Mother Nature laughed in the face of those who thought Dec snow futility was en route. In January, other than a half inch Jan 5th, once again....no other measurable snow fell through the 20th. This was a little different than December, because at least we had a nice snowpack the first 10 days of the month. But once again, talk of Jan snow futility was surfacing. Some lake effect and a few shortwaves later, once again Mother Nature got the last laugh as over 8 inches had fallen on the month, yes a few inches below normal but not even in the top 50 snowless Januarys So now we enter February. We wont be starting the month with a torch and green grass like December, but we wont be starting with a thick snowpack like January either. Dirty plow piles, brown grass, and perhaps a dusting if all goes well tomorrow, will be what we start this month with. So I certainly hope we can end this next-to-no-snow-til-the-20th nonsense, and start this month off right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 pack it in folks Not a terrible map. -PNA allows storms to infiltrate NA off the Pacific and the confluence from the PV would prevent anything from cutting (storms or excessive warmth). 6z GFS around D8 is a great example of this, although verbatim a bit warm. Obviously I'm not saying it's a great pattern, but that's not a torch signal either, despite that orange shading. Heights do not always correlate with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not a terrible map. -PNA allows storms to infiltrate NA off the Pacific and the confluence from the PV would prevent anything from cutting (storms or excessive warmth). 6z GFS around D8 is a great example of this, although verbatim a bit warm. Obviously I'm not saying it's a great pattern, but that's not a torch signal either, despite that orange shading. Heights do not always correlate with temps. Don't want to jinx it, lol, but I don't think it's unrealistic that a "favorable" stretch could be in store for WI, MI, and southern Ontario. Have to start chipping away at that 13.5" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Don't want to jinx it, lol, but I don't think it's unrealistic that a "favorable" stretch could be in store for WI, MI, and southern Ontario. Have to start chipping away at that 13.5" call. February has been our month recently. REALLY hope it continues. DTW since 2007 2007- 14.1" 2008- 24.2" 2009- 8.5" 2010- 27.0" 2011- 31.7" 2012- 10.2" If we can manage 10 inches in last years trainwreck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Larry Cosgrove: Winter 2012-13 in Texas (and much of the Old South and Eastern Seaboard) is largely done. Put a fork in it. Still a pretty cold night for ...Houston Wednesday night, but then the Arctic values basically retreat to the Midwest and Northeast (where a minor snow potential exists next week). After Valentine's Day, I think we start an early, and increasingly warm, Spring season over most of the lower 48 states. Harrumph.... Looks like LC has thrown the towel in....sounds Roger Smith-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Don't want to jinx it, lol, but I don't think it's unrealistic that a "favorable" stretch could be in store for WI, MI, and southern Ontario. Have to start chipping away at that 13.5" call. Going bullish too? I went 15.5" here. What the hell. Last month of winter. Let's shoot for the stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Larry Cosgrove: Winter 2012-13 in Texas (and much of the Old South and Eastern Seaboard) is largely done. Put a fork in it. Still a pretty cold night for ...Houston Wednesday night, but then the Arctic values basically retreat to the Midwest and Northeast (where a minor snow potential exists next week). After Valentine's Day, I think we start an early, and increasingly warm, Spring season over most of the lower 48 states. Harrumph.... Looks like LC has thrown the towel in....sounds Roger Smith-esque. Have no fear. Jb is pointing to the Korean model which apparently hints at a cold, snowy pattern from mid February to mid March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Larry Cosgrove: Winter 2012-13 in Texas (and much of the Old South and Eastern Seaboard) is largely done. Put a fork in it. Still a pretty cold night for ...Houston Wednesday night, but then the Arctic values basically retreat to the Midwest and Northeast (where a minor snow potential exists next week). After Valentine's Day, I think we start an early, and increasingly warm, Spring season over most of the lower 48 states. Harrumph.... Looks like LC has thrown the towel in....sounds Roger Smith-esque. Sounds like we have two extremely different camps....Qvector/Ohweathers thoughts do not portray this....and the CFS weeklies couldnt be further from these thoughts as we head into March. Spring does not start in mid-February here. Never has, never will. Last years Morch was something else, but even that was nearly a month after Valentines Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Have no fear. Jb is pointing to the Korean model which apparently hints at a cold, snowy pattern from mid February to mid March! Sadly...this has even more credibility than someone simply saying "I think we will see an early spring". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sadly...this has even more credibility than someone simply saying "I think we will see an early spring". Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 watching the 12z gfs unfold thru 300 hrs is like watching a schoolbus crash in slow motion. the only thing saving the 11-15 day from being an outright blowtorch is that at the extreme end of that range the gfs plunges in coast to coast arctic air in typical longrange gfs fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Have no fear. Jb is pointing to the Korean model which apparently hints at a cold, snowy pattern from mid February to mid March! i thought you were joking @BigJoeBastardi: Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10 http://t.co/oVjR3a16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sounds like we have two extremely different camps....Qvector/Ohweathers thoughts do not portray this....and the CFS weeklies couldnt be further from these thoughts as we head into March. Spring does not start in mid-February here. Never has, never will. Last years Morch was something else, but even that was nearly a month after Valentines Day. Yes, interesting contrasting thoughts. Later Feb has me nervous especially if we see the MJO keep progressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sadly...this has even more credibility than someone simply saying "I think we will see an early spring". Yeah, Tropical is calling for a "Morch" redux. You have to choose between the dumb and the dumber. I'll at least take Bastardi's prediction over Tropical, but neither is worth anything more than a tiny grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Friday morning shaping up to be cold. Another shot to possibly flirt with 0 here with no snowcover to speak of. We made it down to 2 during the last cold snap, and given that this airmass doesn't look any colder aloft and winds also look to stay elevated, I'm skeptical about this one outdoing the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Friday morning shaping up to be cold. Another shot to possibly flirt with 0 here with no snowcover to speak of. We made it down to 2 during the last cold snap, and given that this airmass doesn't look any colder aloft and winds also look to stay elevated, I'm skeptical about this one outdoing the last one. Wait a minute, I thought it was supposed to snow tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wait a minute, I thought it was supposed to snow tonight? I purposely worded it that way. A possible light coating which may partially sublimate by then doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I purposely worded it that way. A possible light coating which may partially sublimate by then doesn't count. I know, just giving ya a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I know, just giving ya a hard time. LAFs 2nd biggest snow of the season on the way this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 LAFs 2nd biggest snow of the season on the way this weekend? Hmm, looks like we have to beat 1.0". 50/50 shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Friday morning shaping up to be cold. Another shot to possibly flirt with 0 here with no snowcover to speak of. We made it down to 2 during the last cold snap, and given that this airmass doesn't look any colder aloft and winds also look to stay elevated, I'm skeptical about this one outdoing the last one. I think you have a good chance at it, check this morning lows just north of the border, I believe these are a bit colder than with the last cold snap: I tried post the SREF plumes graph for low temps @ MSP, but it won't allow it. -20 could be a real possibility here. you can check them out here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130130&RT=09&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=MSP&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=44.94512143061392&mLON=-92.779957421875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think you have a good chance at it, check this morning lows just north of the border, I believe these are a bit colder than with the last cold snap: I tried post the SREF plumes graph for low temps @ MSP, but it won't allow it. -20 could be a real possibility here. you can check them out here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130130&RT=09&PRM=3hrly-TMP&SID=MSP&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=44.94512143061392&mLON=-92.779957421875&mTYP=roadmap That seems comparable to the one around the 21st-22nd...I recall a lot of -20s and -30s then. As far as I can tell, the only advantage this one has over then is significant snowcover in closer proximity (last time the ground was bare at MSN/LSE etc) but I'm not sure it will be enough of a factor to tip things here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That seems comparable to the one around the 21st-22nd...I recall a lot of -20s and -30s then. As far as I can tell, the only advantage this one has over last time is significant snowcover in closer proximity (last time the ground was bare at MSN/LSE etc) but I'm not sure it will be enough of a factor to tip things here. yup, now that I'm looking closer, it looks like about + 3 for you guys, as best as I can tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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