January 28-30 Severe Threat

[Geos]

Rumbling here, but no lightning yet. This is going to be one cold t-storm!

[daddylonglegs]

Very cold rain around here...  seems weird to be hearing rain on the roof this time of the year...at midnite.

[Hoosier]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1217 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1150 PM HAIL CHESTERTON 41.60N 87.06W

01/28/2013 M1.00 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL LASTED 5 MINUTES AND COMPLETELY COVERED THE GROUND. MOSTLY PEA SIZE HAIL BUT SOME BIGGER ONES

[Hoosier]

30% wind and 5% tor probs in S IL/SW IN on the 6z outlook.

[Stebo]

30% wind and 5% tor probs in S IL/SW IN on the 6z outlook.

 

Looking at the 4km SPC WRF, I think we might see these probabilities extended Northward some, especially considering how far North the warm front already is at this point.

[Hoosier]

Looking at the 4km SPC WRF, I think we might see these probabilities extended Northward some, especially considering how far North the warm front already is at this point.

Maybe...observational trends during the day will be important as usual. Can't really fault SPC for handling the 6z outlook the way they did given the setup with a dash of January severe climatology.

[Thunder Road]

Looking at the 4km SPC WRF, I think we might see these probabilities extended Northward some, especially considering how far North the warm front already is at this point.

Has some quasi-discrete convection coming out of SE IL towards central IN 18z-22z out ahead of the real deal.  That has my interest now, since we're at least *considering* a day chase tomorrow.  (I seriously doubt we actually will, but there's a 7 am meeting anyway.)

 

[RCNYILWX]

Pretty solid forecast max hourly updraft helicities over northwest and west central IL by late afternoon (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/): 

[Stebo]

Pretty solid forecast max hourly updraft helicities over northwest and west central IL by late afternoon (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/): 

 

Personally I expect the risk area to be extended to Chicago/Northern IN and maybe into SW MI

[BowMeHunter]

any hail threat.. that's the only thing interesting about severe wx to me.  I've never seen anything larger than pea size

[TheWeatherPimp]

I'd bet my paycheck that the severe weather with this storm is an over performer! Just way to much coming together.

[RCNYILWX]

Personally I expect the risk area to be extended to Chicago/Northern IN and maybe into SW MI

Wouldn't be surprised. We'll see how the mesoscale details shake out during the day. 

[RCNYILWX]

I'd bet my paycheck that the severe weather with this storm is an over performer! Just way to much coming together.

61/59 at Lincoln, IL at 1am. Unreal for late January. I think the question up this way is instability ( though the presence of a May air mass overnight south of the warm front may argue that instability will be there), but if there's enough and it's at the lower levels, the wind fields are off the charts. Could make for a very interesting day. 

[Stebo]

I'd bet my paycheck that the severe weather with this storm is an over performer! Just way to much coming together.

 

Yeah I really am liking this region and especially to the South

 

Also there is a MCD out for KS/MO and storms are lighting up between KC and Springfield already.

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1251 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL MO      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 290651Z - 290815Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS   AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.      DISCUSSION...LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA   INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY FROM JUST N OF TOP SWD TO NEAR   CNU WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST /S OF IRK/.   THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR...PERHAPS ALONG A   ZONE OF ENHANCED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A 50-60 KT SWLY   LLJ.  MODIFICATION OF 00Z TOP/LMN SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE   CONDITIONS INDICATES ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH MLCAPE   VALUES OF AROUND 700 J/KG.      IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BECOME    FIRMLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL A   HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  SHOULD THIS SCENARIO   UNFOLD...CURRENT VAD DATA FROM TULSA OK NWD THROUGH SPRINGFIELD AND   KANSAS CITY MO INDICATE LARGE...CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS WHICH   WOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT.      CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE CLOSELY BEING MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER   INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY WHICH WOULD PROMPT THE NECESSITY OF A   WATCH.      ..MEAD.. 01/29/2013

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I really am liking this region and especially to the South

 

Also there is a MCD out for KS/MO and storms are lighting up between KC and Springfield already.

 

Pretty standard late January tornado watch into northern MO.

 

This is much more interesting than our upcoming snowpack eraser.

[Chicago Storm]

61/59 at Lincoln, IL at 1am. Unreal for late January. I think the question up this way is instability ( though the presence of a May air mass overnight south of the warm front may argue that instability will be there), but if there's enough and it's at the lower levels, the wind fields are off the charts. Could make for a very interesting day. 

Here's what I posted in the other thread earlier...

 

"FWIW...It should be noted that the 1959J/KG of SB CAPE of the OUN sounding is approx 750-1000 J/KG higher than the 12z NAM showed for 0z, and the GFS was off by over 1000J/KG. LZK was also higher, by about 500J/KG. Meso analysis was way off for most of the area too.

 

Obviously just two locations and just talking SB CAPE, but yea."

[OceanStWx]

Seriously though, I am a little surprised that 0-3 km CAPEs in the MCD are as high as they are. Large area of 100 J/kg, in an environment of 500 m²/s² effective SRH.

[CapitalKid]

Just as an FYI for tomorrow.. all the emergency sirens for Frankfort, KY are down.  They malfunctioned last week and are currently out of commission.... so if you have a weather radio in the Frankfort area, make sure and alert your friends and relatives.

[LouWX]

SPC keeps adjusting this SLGT eastward but I still think they are late to the party on this one. I'd have a MDT along the OH River for significant wind damage threat if it were me... I guess they are waiting to watch the evolution of the QLCS that all models are developing. UofILL WRF reflectivity fields are very impressive/concerning late tonight in IN IL and KY.

[KokomoWX]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  0650 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013     VALID 291300Z - 301200Z     ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR  MUCH OF AR...FAR NERN TX...FAR NRN LA...WEST CENTRAL AND NW MS...FAR  SWRN TN AND PART OF SERN MO...    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM  THE SRN PLAINS TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NNEWD INTO THE MID  MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...      ..SYNOPSIS    A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES INTO  NRN MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TOWARD  THE PLAINS STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH  WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE SRN  PLAINS...REACHING THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT/EARLY  WED MORNING.  A STRONG 90-100 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY  THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THIS SWLY WIND  FIELD IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD FROM CENTRAL  TX THROUGH AR TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A STRONG  UPSTREAM JET OVER THE PACIFIC NW TO GREAT BASIN TRANSLATES THROUGH  THE BASE OF THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH AND EMERGES ACROSS TX TO THE  LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.    EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SYNOPTIC LOW CENTERED OVER  IA WITH A POLAR FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH FAR NWRN MO...ERN KS  TO NWRN OK...AND THEN WWD THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE TO AN AREA OF LOW  PRESSURE IN SERN CO.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM IA ALONG THE  IL/WI BORDER TO N OF CHICAGO INTO FAR NRN OH.  MEANWHILE...A DRY  LINE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS FAR WRN OK TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION TO THE  NW OF DRT...WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE TX  PANHANDLE AND W TO SW TX.  PRIOR THE PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN JET  EMERGING ENE OF THE SWRN STATES...THE POLAR FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL  MOVE SLOWLY EWD...WHILE THE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD THROUGH SERN WI AND  LOWER MI.  BY THIS EVENING...THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY  LINE AND ADVANCE MORE QUICKLY EWD...CONCURRENT WITH THE ADVANCEMENT  OF THE POLAR FRONT.  BY 12Z WED...A SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED  OVER LOWER MI WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH INDIANA TO  MIDDLE TN...MS...SERN LA TO THE WRN GULF.    ...SRN PLAINS TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO MID MS AND LOWER OH  VALLEYS...  A MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS IS  SUPPORTING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE UP TO  1000 J/KG EXTENDING FROM NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...ALONG AND EAST  OF THE DRY LINE. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD WITH THE LONGWAVE  TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH  PLAINS HAS SUPPORTED THE ONSET OF STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS  PRIOR TO THE START OF DAY 1 OVER WRN OK.  THIS INCREASE IN DEEP  LAYER ASCENT IS ALSO EVIDENT FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF  THE POLAR FRONT IN NRN OK TO SERN KS AND SWRN MO WHERE STORMS HAVE  BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SINCE 10-11Z. THE TORNADO  AND DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES AND SLIGHT RISK AREA HAVE BEEN  EXTENDED WWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF NORTHWEST TX...WRN AND NRN OK INTO  ERN KS. THIS CHANGE IS DUE TO THE ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS  AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH SWD AND NEWD EXTENT  ALONG THE DRY LINE AND POLAR FRONT...RESPECTIVELY.    STRONG-EXTREME HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO  THE MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY BROAD  SSWLY LLJ UNDERGOING STRENGTHENING AS IT SHIFTS ENEWD AHEAD OF THE  POLAR FRONT/DRY LINE. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO SPREAD FAIRLY FAR  N FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO  NEAR 60 F REACHING NRN IL AND INDIANA. FARTHER S...MID 60S DEWPOINTS  WILL SPREAD INTO SERN OK...CENTRAL AR TO WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON  THROUGH TONIGHT.    MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH NWD EXTENT WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE  DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY INTO THE LOWER MO  AND MID MS VALLEYS. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INTO NRN IL SUGGEST  THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE AROUND 400 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER  S...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSER TO 8 C/KM PER 12Z SOUNDING AT FORT  WORTH TEXAS IS SUPPORTING THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000  J/KG EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL OK. SIMILAR MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED  INTO NERN TX/SERN OK TO SRN AR WHERE GREATER MOISTURE IS FORECAST  THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.    STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR  EXCEEDING 50 KT AS FAR N AS THE LOWER MO TO LOWER OH VALLEYS AND   SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE POLAR FRONT AND DRY  LINE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LINEAR STORM MODE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE  STRENGTH OF THE BULK SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH  CURVATURE...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING  WINDS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER  WINDS AS THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC NW/GREAT BASIN JET ADVANCES INTO THE  SRN EXTENT OF THE OUTLOOK AREA INCLUDING THE MODERATE RISK.  THIS  WILL FURTHER INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR AN  ENHANCED THREAT FOR STRONGER TORNADOES INCLUDING THE METRO AREAS OF  LITTLE ROCK AND MEMPHIS AFTER DARK THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE  STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SSWLY WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS A MODESTLY  UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT  OF A WELL DEFINED QLCS ADVANCING E OF THE MID-LOWER MS RIVER. THIS  SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NSSL SUGGESTING THE  QLCS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES REACHES  PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.   THUS...THE SLIGHT RISK AND SEVERE WIND AND TORNADO PROBABILITIES  HAVE BEEN EXTENDED EWD SOME WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.     THE SLIGHT RISK HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NWD TO INCLUDE THE REST OF  NRN IL TO ACCOUNT FOR A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO  THREAT...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL  SHEAR...DESPITE WEAKER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.    ..PETERS/ROGERS.. 01/29/2013 

[Indystorm]

Well, Alek gets in the game after all with slight risk extended north to the WI line and pulled ne into IN from Gary se to Richmond and Lawrenceburg.

[A-L-E-K]

Well, Alek gets in the game after all with slight risk extended north to the WI line and pulled ne into IN from Gary se to Richmond and Lawrenceburg.

 

Gino did a morning update...looks like a quite a few rain free hours, if we pop some sunshine (and I think we do) it could get interesting.

 

HRRR developes up to 500 sbcape over western illinois but only gets surface temps to near 60 (ORD is already 60)

 

RAP developes similar instability values over western/northern Illinois and also looks a little cool. 

[A-L-E-K]

early visible shot showing some breaks

 

 

[cyclone77]

HRRR FWIW shows a broken line of decent convection along the Mississippi this afternoon...

 

[A-L-E-K]

RAP with a pocket of 750+ sbcape in the vicinity of our last January tornado event.

[jhamps10]

Moderate risk just got expanded NE to include Southern Illinois, SW Indiana, Western Kentucky, pretty much along and south of I-64 west of US 231, mainly for straight line winds

 

[Hoosier]

Growing concern for the Ohio Valley overnight. Amount of buoyancy continues to remain in question but the forcing/shear could compensate and maintain a healthy severe threat well into the overnight hours.

[Chicago Storm]

RAP showing a more widespread area of 60+ DP's into central and northern IL by this afternoon, along with temps in the mid 60's. Still showing an area of 750J/KG of CAPE too.

 

There is an expanding area of clearing in C. IL, so we'll see if it has the right idea.

[Hoosier]

LOT with a nice updated mesoscale discussion.

[cyclone77]

The cells between Peoria and Macomb continue to organize and intensify.  These will have to be watched as they head into north-central IL, where there's been some sun this morning.