Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I continue to be intrigued by the storm system in the day 6-7 range. It wouldn't take much to make this a pretty decent snowstorm for the area per the 12z GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Euro weekes out , Cold and Blocky next 4 weeks , was warm in its last run in week - 3 and week 4 . totally flipped . Looks cold all the way through .... Adding here to keep the Feb discussion going. GFS hinting at threats 2/15 and into Presidents day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 What an epic pattern coming up if the GFS is right. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 would be a very cold and snowy feb. MJO ftw...realllllly activated that STJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I hope it's like 2010. Was in Philly at the time, Feb was absolutely ridiculous with 30-40" of snow on the ground at one point. Then in early March, a switch was flipped and it was summer, and by April we were in the 90s. Awesomeness all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I hope it's like 2010. Was in Philly at the time, Feb was absolutely ridiculous with 30-40" of snow on the ground at one point. Then in early March, a switch was flipped and it was summer, and by April we were in the 90s. Awesomeness all around. This year will likely be opposite if it ends up being snowy....-qbo and mid winter pattern change. Think we go all the way to mid march this winter. Cold and stormy throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 LC, does not sound to promising. http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-february-9-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 January will end up averaging around 35.0...max. of 61 and a min. of 11...Some years that started similar... season.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb..... 2012-13....41.5....35.1....??? 1971-72....40.8....35.1....31.4...la nina year...frequent snows and a near miss KU in Feb... 1979-80....41.1....33.7....31.4...neutral positive year...biggest snow came in mid March... 1990-91....42.6....34.9....40.0...neutral positive year...biggest snow came in late February... 1982-83....42.8....34.5....36.4...Strong el nino year...Biggest snowstorm in February was a KU event... 2011-12....43.3....37.3....40.9...la nina year...February and March were the warmest on record... 2006-07....43.6....37.5....28.2...el nino year...Feb. and Mar. sleet storms...very cold Feb.... 1994-95....42.2....37.5....31.6...el nino year...Feb. had a KU event... of the seven winters on the list two had very warm February's...Another above normal...four below normal...one very cold Feb. 2007...four snowy Febs...three not so snowy... February should end up with temperatures below average...Snowfall above average...enso is neutral negative now...of these seven analogs only 1972, 1980 and 2007 had snowfalls in March...the other four years had less than an inch combined...1972 is not a bad analog now and it had two snow and sleet events in March...The cold continued into early April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 What a cold and blocky GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 LC, does not sound to promising. http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-february-9-2013-at-7-30-p-m-ct-part-2 He's usually either way too stormy or too dry, last night I remember he called for only a few inches in NYC. Guess he could've been right if everything were shifted 75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Big pattern change to warmer on tap after D10 or so if the Euro ensembles are correct about going into MJO phase 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 that 500mb pattern looks similar to the long range GFS after 348. I like the idea of about 10-15 more days of wintry weather, moderation in the form of a warmer pattern while continuing to be stormy. By the end of the 1st or wk of March I expect a change back to more wintry conditions. So I say we still have a "month" of winter left although it probably comes in two parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Big pattern change to warmer on tap after D10 or so if the Euro ensembles are correct about going into MJO phase 4. ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif FebruaryPhase4.gif I've noticed that the MJO progression usually occurs slightly slower than progged, and the resultant sensible wx effects on the US tend to take a bit longer as well, especially if we have either -AO or -NAO blocking in place prior to the MJO phase change. In this particular case, the high latitude blocking doesn't look impressive, so the resistance exerted by those indices will be very small. So if we account for slightly slower MJO timing, I do like the idea of the winter pattern breaking down probably around the 25th of February +/- a couple days. But by that point, hopefully we'll have another couple good snow events in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Feb. 1972 had a few snow events the second half of the month but it also had a big warm up on the 29th...March 1st and 2nd 1972 had temperatures in the 70's before another shot of cold with a little snow...I could see the month playing out similar to 72 and a storm in mid March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I've noticed that the MJO progression usually occurs slightly slower than progged, and the resultant sensible wx effects on the US tend to take a bit longer as well, especially if we have either -AO or -NAO blocking in place prior to the MJO phase change. In this particular case, the high latitude blocking doesn't look impressive, so the resistance exerted by those indices will be very small. So if we account for slightly slower MJO timing, I do like the idea of the winter pattern breaking down probably around the 25th of February +/- a couple days. But by that point, hopefully we'll have another couple good snow events in the books. Yeah, the timing usually needs to be refined as we get further into the forecast period. I would guess that we start to transition to milder sometime in the 11-15 day range. First, the return to colder again around next weekend matches up nicely with a phase 3 in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yeah, the timing usually needs to be refined as we get further into the forecast period. I would guess that we start to transition to milder sometime in the 11-15 day range. First, the return to colder again around next weekend matches up nicely with a phase 3 in February. FebruaryPhase3500mb.gif 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif Yeah, we're also going to have to monitor whether or not the MJO continues amplified into phase 4. Some of the Euro ensemble members take it into the COD or very weak phase 4. If this occurs, the MJO might not have enough of an influence to flip us to a blowtorch pattern. We'll moderate but I'm not sold on the magnitude of warmth just yet. We might end up w/ near normal temps or maybe slightly above normal for the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 take a look at the gfs from our vday threat forward. I see 4 possible storm threats going forward with the storm track pretty much south of here, for each one. Some of them as modeled are rain verbatim but there is cold air available across the northern US and the pattern overall is very conducive to snow and cold. It also goes to show how active a pattern were entering, starting with the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 take a look at the gfs from our vday threat forward. I see 4 possible storm threats going forward with the storm track pretty much south of here, for each one. Some of them as modeled are rain verbatim but there is cold air available across the northern US and the pattern overall is very conducive to snow and cold. It also goes to show how active a pattern were entering, starting with the blizzard Historic February may be on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That lakes cutter next week has trended weaker...wouldn't be surprised if this ends up giving some frozen precip to the region, especially northwest areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Could we actually see something in March given the blocking pattern set to develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Anyone notice the GGEM is now showing a snowstorm for the mid-week system that was supposed to be a lakes cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Every model has realized that you cannot run a storm into a block. The result is what you're seeing on the 00z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 February temperature departures for the area: NYC: -1.5 LGA: -1.0 JFK: -1.5 EWR: -0.8 All stations will see large negative departures today and tomorrow with lows in the teens and highs in the upper 20s/low 30s. Another cold shot approaches the area on Wednesday and Thursday, so a below normal month is looking highly probable. November was the last month to finish below normal with -3.8 departure at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 most of south jersey has more snow so far this season then NYC - does that tell you something ? Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NYC should easily get into the teens tonight so the idea of no more lows below 20F after early February was a bust. My idea of arctic air returning mid month was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Temps in the teens right now at the airports. Cold night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 February temperature departures for the area: NYC: -1.5 LGA: -1.0 JFK: -1.5 EWR: -0.8 All stations will see large negative departures today and tomorrow with lows in the teens and highs in the upper 20s/low 30s. Another cold shot approaches the area on Wednesday and Thursday, so a below normal month is looking highly probable. November was the last month to finish below normal with -3.8 departure at Central Park. It's quite a feat for NYC to be running -2.5 through the 18th so far. The last time that we were able to finish February with a negative departure after a positive January departure during a non El Nino year was back in 1993. It's interesting that even though the El Nino faded in the early fall , February will have the coldest temperatures relative to the means for DJF. So we got a colder February with a blizzard as a bonus without the El Nino. Cold and snowy finishes to the winter have been generally associated with El Ninos in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It's quite a feat for NYC to be running -2.5 through the 18th so far. The last time that we were able to finish February with a negative departure after a positive January departure during a non El Nino year was back in 1993. It's interesting that even though the El Nino faded in the early fall , February will have the coldest temperatures relative to the means for DJF. So we got a colder February with a blizzard as a bonus without the El Nino. Cold and snowy finishes to the winter have been generally associated with El Ninos in the past. I can't help but think how similar this February is to 1995...The difference between the two so far is the November snowstorm...I hope March 2013 isn't as mild and snowless as 1995...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 we are averaging around 32.0 for February and over the next few days that average should be sustained...But after the next cold spell it's up hill for a while...How long?...with that said the winter in NYC Dec-Feb should end up averaging around 36.5 or slightly higher...We have close to 19" in the park that was measured and we could see more if it stays cold enough for snow...Last year it was over before it started...here are the winters that averaged in the 36.2 37.3 range... season.....temp.....snowfall...big snow 2012-13...36.8..........18.8".......11.4" Feb... 2007-08...36.4..........11.9".........6.0" Feb... 2006-07...36.5..........12.6".........5.5" Mar... 2005-06...37.3..........40.0".......26.9" Feb... 1999-00...36.2..........16.3".........5.5" Jan... 1994-95...37.1..........11.8".......10.8" Feb... 1991-92...37.2..........12.6".........6.2" Mar... 1984-85...36.4..........24.1".........5.7" Feb... 1951-52...37.0..........19.7".........5.8" Jan... 1918-19...36.6............3.8".........1.4" Mar... 1912-13...37.2..........15.3".......11.4" Dec... 1908-09...36.7..........20.3".........5.1" Jan... 1905-06...36.7..........20.0".........6.5" Mar... 1897-98...36.5..........21.1".........5.0" Jan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I can't help but think how similar this February is to 1995...The difference between the two so far is the November snowstorm...I hope March 2013 isn't as mild and snowless as 1995...... it's always a plus when we can get that rare colder February outside of an El Nino pattern with the steadily rising February means. The February mean temperature is just about 2 degrees warmer than it was during the 70's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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