Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[weathafella]

Bitter by Thursday per gfs.

[ORH_wxman]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I got the goose egg (0.0") last FEB.  

 

BOS had 0.9" last February. The Feb 28 event got them.

[N. OF PIKE]

Will how did bos do in feb 69 , must have been very big?

[weathafella]

BOS had 0.9" last February. The Feb 28 event got them.

Screwed us out of futility...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

1993 march was great, 2005 and 2011 had epic January's, 2003 February. We've lived well the past 20 years and we may be paying.

 

BOS had a 19 year average of like 48.7" going into last year and ORH 77.5"...there's definitely some payback that is still to come. Lets hope it doesn't happen this winter....we already got a dose last winter. The 1980s and early 1990s was payback for the late 1950s through the 1970s. Hopefully we have more epic stretches. We can always pay the bill 40 years from now, lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Will how did bos do in feb 69 , must have been very big?

 

2nd all time with 41.3"....Feb 2003 broke it by 0.3"

[CT Rain]

GFS is brutal on Thursday for NNE. 

[weathafella]

BOS had a 19 year average of like 48.7" going into last year and ORH 77.5"...there's definitely some payback that is still to come. Lets hope it doesn't happen this winter....we already got a dose last winter. The 1980s and early 1990s was payback for the late 1950s through the 1970s. Hopefully we have more epic stretches. We can always pay the bill 40 years from now, lol.

Probably not for me to worry about...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Probably not for me to worry about...lol.

 

Well isnt that the way to do it? lol. Rack up the tab and then never have to pay the piper.

[weathafella]

Medium range has the entire Canadian territory (almost) sub 500 thickness on op gfs.

[NorEastermass128]

Well isnt that the way to do it? lol. Rack up the tab and then never have to pay the piper.

 

[insert Washington or Congress reference here]

 

I'm just hoping for average snow.  That means BOS is due for 40" more this season!

[NorEaster27]

zonal graident pattern forms as the PNA breaks down

[Clinch Leatherwood]

zonal graident pattern forms as the PNA breaks down

 

This my huge fear.  I hate that this keeps rearing its head on the models here and there. 

[weathafella]

This my huge fear. I hate that this keeps rearing its head on the models here and there.

But the PNA quickly rebuilds in later frames and EPO is off the scale.

[N. OF PIKE]

For the interior the key is to just get into a stormy pattern and then the rest should be gravy wrt racking up some snowfall, I guess the coast could have the same strategy

[ORH_wxman]

GFS almost does a total recall of 1994 in clown range...eerie looking. Even has the +NAO and the monster block in the E Siberian Sea and the PV over Hudson Bay.

[weathafella]

So op has big arctic d6-8, relaxes and reload d11 onward. Hi Steve.

[weathafella]

Damned this is a heckuva run. Nor'easter spoke too soon and went running...lol.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

But the PNA quickly rebuilds in later frames and EPO is off the scale.

 

I know, the same up and down we've been talking about.  It does look like we get the initial glancing blow, a break, and then another.  I think there's good agreement on this at this stage.

 

I think we're okay, I trust the Euro.  My concern is just that this first cold shot looked like the 2nd cold shot on the GFS/models at 10-15 days.  IE, nationwide, dominant, and lasting...not the way it's going to play out.

[ORH_wxman]

Damned this is a heckuva run. Nor'easter spoke too soon and went running...lol.

 

Has a lot of similarities to your fav winter.

 

 

Clown range, but kind of entertaining to look at.

[weathafella]

Moving block rotating PVs around in a fairly stable pattern with some relaxant but biased quite cold. Just the op. time for bed.

[ORH_wxman]

Thicknesses in the 470s in the northenr plains, lol....I cannot remember the last time we saw that. Maybe Feb '96

[weathafella]

Has a lot of similarities to your fav winter.

Clown range, but kind of entertaining to look at.

I thnk either way we're going to have some fun.

[mitchnick]

Thicknesses in the 470s in the northenr plains, lol....I cannot remember the last time we saw that. Maybe Feb '96

 

doesn't seem to do the east coast much good though snow-wise verbatim

[Clinch Leatherwood]

merry go round pattern which would actually be a lot of fun.  I'll take changing weather with storms versus anything else.

 

Still not sold yet, scooter caution flags are armed and ready.

[ORH_wxman]

We get a -40 contour to show up at 850mb at the end of the run just N of MN.

[OSUmetstud]

really drives home how much uncertainty there is out there...even more than normal.

 

 

[TalcottWx]

Cold is coming, that I am confident. The bigger question is snow.

[TalcottWx]

We get a -40 contour to show up at 850mb at the end of the run just N of MN.

International falls will be frigid

[CT Rain]

Has a lot of similarities to your fav winter.

 

 

Clown range, but kind of entertaining to look at.

 

What was your favorite winter?

 

As great as 95-96 was (and 1/96 blizzard was just perfect) and 10-11 was... something about 93-94 just made it really cool.