Pattern change on our doorstep - will it deliver the goods? General Discussion/ banter

[OSUmetstud]

not sure how it works out sensibly for snow but that would be an awesome pattern.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

What was your favorite winter?

 

As great as 95-96 was (and 1/96 blizzard was just perfect) and 10-11 was... something about 93-94 just made it really cool. 

 

'92-'93 easily for me...but I do love '93-'94.

[CT Rain]

'92-'93 easily for me...but I do love '93-'94.

 

92-93 just wasn't so great in KHVN in terms of total snow... but it was a fun few months. 

[ORH_wxman]

not sure how it works out sensibly for snow but that would be an awesome pattern.

 

There would prob be a ton of snow and ice overrunning events in that pattern...GFS verbatim cuts a few of those lows into NY State and changes us to rain, but unlikely with those filthy arctic airmasses to the north. Probably a lot of overachievers when you have that type of cold around.

[H2Otown_WX]

What was your favorite winter?

 

As great as 95-96 was (and 1/96 blizzard was just perfect) and 10-11 was... something about 93-94 just made it really cool. 

Was it that we got it done without the benefit of a -NAO?

[OSUmetstud]

that's probably a -5 or -6 AO there.

 

[TalcottWx]

Canada is in the icebox. Really sick to look at

[ORH_wxman]

92-93 just wasn't so great in KHVN in terms of total snow... but it was a fun few months. 

 

Yeah...up here we had two >20" storms and a frigid Feb/Mar with plenty of other major events. 2nd snowiest winter on record...but an appeal better than '95-'96 which was the snowiest on record.

 

I liked '00-'01 over '95-'96 too...and '93-'94.

[ORH_wxman]

Canada is in the icebox. Really sick to look at

 

Maybe a bit of payback for them. Its been a few winters since the dominant PV parked over them for a long period. Maybe this is the time now...we still don't know though.

[mitchnick]

CFS2 has finally given up on a colder than normal JAN in the east (essentially) after showing one for weeks on end

anyone know where I can order those caution flags online

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

[H2Otown_WX]

CFS2 has finally given up on a colder than normal JAN in the east (essentially) after showing one for weeks on end

anyone know where I can order those caution flags online

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

Luckily we don't need colder than normal here to get snow.

[mitchnick]

Luckily we don't need colder than normal here to get snow.

 

nope, but you do need precip

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

[ORH_wxman]

Luckily we don't need colder than normal here to get snow.

 

Well that is taking into account the current torch. The 2nd half of this month is absolutely going to be colder than normal I think. We'll see if it outwighs the current positive anomalies. A GFS type scenario would blow them into the stratosphere (no pun intended). But that is an extreme solution.

[WeatherX]

CFS2 has finally given up on a colder than normal JAN in the east (essentially) after showing one for weeks on end

anyone know where I can order those caution flags online

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usT2mMonInd1.gif

 

Lol...troll.

[mitchnick]

Lol...troll.

 

dude, I'm just posting an updated model that has been posted in every forum at one time or another on this board so I have no clue what you are talking about

[H2Otown_WX]

Well that is taking into account the current torch. The 2nd half of this month is absolutely going to be colder than normal I think. We'll see if it outwighs the current positive anomalies. A GFS type scenario would blow them into the stratosphere (no pun intended). But that is an extreme solution.

Lol, the tropopause would be relatively close to the ground in some parts of the CONUS on the 00z GFS. What do you make of the GFS losing the frontal wave OTS?

[H2Otown_WX]

nope, but you do need precip

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif

Meh, I'm not too worried about the CFS forecast for precip. I think we're going to get a chance at something big in the last week to ten days of January.

[ORH_wxman]

Lol, the tropopause would be relatively close to the ground in some parts of the CONUS on the 00z GFS. What do you make of the GFS losing the frontal wave OTS?

 

Meh, I'll wait until the Euro, lol. GGEM actually delays the storm until Thursday and produces a big one.

 

Models will be all over the place with this thing until we get closer.

[TalcottWx]

He's not trolling he posted this in the mid atl earlier

[Typhoon Tip]

Again, too much gradient aloft is damping that Tuesday deal - 

[WeatherX]

He's not trolling he posted this in the mid atl earlier

 

Misery posting in the snow zone. 

[WeatherX]

Snow for the hovel in central NJ? Looks close for those poor souls...

 

[ORH_wxman]

Misery posting in the snow zone. 

 

Eh, cut Mitch some slack...he is a bonafide snow weenie like many of us. They pretty much have to punt the winter down there with this not being a Nino, and hope for a well timed system. The pattern looks pretty good for NE and we'll likely get ours in this pattern somewhere along the way.

[OSUmetstud]

GEFS got colder in the longer range...looks pretty decent.  Less of -NAO, but more -AO...basically moves the -NAO block west to right over the pole.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS got colder in the longer range...looks pretty decent.  Less of -NAO, but more -AO...basically moves the -NAO block west to right over the pole.

 

Yeah that is very cold for NE...also a pretty good LES pattern. Prob have the PV near James Bay at times on that. It is def liking the idea of keeping the Canada PV the dominant cold PV on the globe and some bitter air rotating around it.

 

We'll have some great chance if that verifies...both in overrunning events and lots of northern stream clippers....and of course those clipper patterns are great for your LES there...they can turn that wind SW ahead of them and give you guys great snow.

[CT Rain]

Meh, I'll wait until the Euro, lol. GGEM actually delays the storm until Thursday and produces a big one.

 

Models will be all over the place with this thing until we get closer.

 

Yeah you can almost envision a situation where the PV/trough orientation is sharper and west (a la the GGEM) and it allows some of the moisture from the Gulf and the stalled out boundary to amplify.

 

That would be nice. 

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah that is very cold for NE...also a pretty good LES pattern. Prob have the PV near James Bay at times on that. It is def liking the idea of keeping the Canada PV the dominant cold PV on the globe and some bitter air rotating around it.

 

We'll have some great chance if that verifies...both in overrunning events and lots of northern stream clippers....and of course those clipper patterns are great for your LES there...they can turn that wind SW ahead of them and give you guys great snow.

 

yeah the greenland/ak ridge bridge with the a nice PV tucked underneath is what tends to give the lakes some big events.

 

not quite a KU pattern since the PV is pretty strong...but good for clippers and maybe a redeveloper.

[ORH_wxman]

yeah the greenland/ak ridge bridge with the a nice PV tucked underneath is what tends to give the lakes some big events.

 

not quite a KU pattern since the PV is pretty strong...but good for clippers and maybe a redeveloper.

 

Yeah, classic great LES and New England pattern....I'd hit it. We'd probably see some good event from that. Clipper redevelopers can turn into big ones sometimes when the PV goes through relaxation/relocaton....regardless, we'll see. Its not a surprise we are seeing huge model shifts. We can see the great potential in the pattern, but we've had runs where we see how it goes ugly too.

 

I'd say cautiously optimistic is the way to go right now.

[WeatherX]

Eh, cut Mitch some slack...he is a bonafide snow weenie like many of us. They pretty much have to punt the winter down there with this not being a Nino, and hope for a well timed system. The pattern looks pretty good for NE and we'll likely get ours in this pattern somewhere along the way.

 

No one who loves snow lives in Virginia. But yeah, Mitch is a special case......

[ORH_wxman]

No one who loves snow lives in Virginia. But yeah, Mitch is a special case......

 

Well he lives in MD. Still a tough place. But I'm sure people in MD say that about those in NC...its all relative. Vim Toot in N Maine thinks we're all morons for hoping for snow too.