Harry Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wouldnt take much but a significant stratosphere cooling event to "reset" things so to say. Happened in Novemeber. Not how that works. Plus we had no significant warming event prior to that either. NOT anything close to what we have now which has not been seen since the Jan 85 event i do believe. Unless a big record is at risk i'll pass on the extreme stuff as well. Despite what a few may think the LES would suck ( dust size flakes is what we would get) with that kind of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sorry, I'll pass on the extreme cold. Anything below 10*C is too much for me, and I would strongly prefer anything at/above 20*C. Not how that works. Plus we had no significant warming event prior to that either. NOT anything close to what we have now which has not been seen since the Jan 85 event i do believe. Unless a big record is at risk i'll pass on the extreme stuff as well. Despite what a few may think the LES would suck ( dust size flakes is what we would get) with that kind of cold. I'm all for the extremes. Need to freeze up those small lakes and ponds, kill the pests and insects and also make a point to the media that, yes, extreme cold can still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm all for the extremes. Need to freeze up those small lakes and ponds, kill the pests and insects and also make a point to the media that, yes, extreme cold can still happen.wait! Don't you know that extreme cold is linked to agw too! You can't escape them. Any extreme event that takes place from now on has been determined by academia to be cause by agw. I don't think there is anything that can happen anymore that they haven't already pre linked to it. Smh. I'll get back to your other question I have to look what kind of 850 temps are left over you guys and need to covert c to f haha. I'm on the road on phone. To hard to do by phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 wait! Don't you know that extreme cold is linked to agw too! You can't escape them. Any extreme event that takes place from now on has been determined by academia to be cause by agw. I don't think there is anything that can happen anymore that they haven't already pre linked to it. Smh Good point. After all, wild temperature swings like this? Who's ever heard of such a thing? We all know that back in the day there always used to be two feet of snow on the ground every Christmas, without exception, that every January saw days on end of temperatures in single digets and that every May saw the tulips bloom right on cue. Surely our weather must be messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 snow pac isn't the greatest here at MSP, some peeps up here are calling for -20 to -25° F, that simply won't happen, minus 15f is possible though, if we had a fresh snowpac than I believe the - 25 would be possible. BTW those of you that like cold, check our record low temps for each day in Jan, which is shown by low minimums. http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/climate_calendar/ccjanuary1981_20101.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 it looks like it will get cold up here, but it should stay well south of any records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 snow pac isn't the greatest here at MSP, some peeps up here are calling for -20 to -25° F, that simply won't happen, minus 15f is possible though, if we had a fresh snowpac than I believe the - 25 would be possible. BTW those of you that like cold, check our record low temps for each day in Jan, which is shown by low minimums. http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/climate_calendar/ccjanuary1981_20101.htm You can keep that crazy cold. lol I am sure there is others around here though who might not mind that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The record cold temperature occurred in MN on Feb 2nd 1996, I'm not sure if that was in Embarrass MN or Tower MN, but really it doesn't matter where it was, the Media gathered that night to witness the cold. A news and weather crew from the 50,000 watt clear channel radio station WCCO am 830 (which I believe most of you can get in this sub forum if conditions are right) left a banana out over night and used it to drive a nail into a 2x4 piece of wood the next morning. The official record low that night was...... -60° F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The record cold temperature occurred in MN on Feb 2nd 1996, I'm not sure if that was in Embarrass MN or Tower MN, but really it doesn't matter where it was, the Media gathered that night to witness the cold. A news and weather crew from the 50,000 watt clear channel radio station WCCO am 830 (which I believe most of you can get in this sub forum if conditions are right) left a banana out over night and used it to drive a nail into a 2x4 piece of wood the next morning. The official record low that night was...... -60° F Oh how i do remember that. Some very brutal stuff there. Meanwhile that same day snow had just begun to fly at my location a few miles in from the coast that would end up dropping almost 30" by the time it ended a few days later. The front responsible for that cold in MN got just far enough south and stayed long enough for two systems to ride it ( second system finally pushed it well out to sea ) which is what did the deed. It was very localized with the 18-30" totals across S.DE and parts of MD eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 You can keep that crazy cold. lol I am sure there is others around here though who might not mind that.. I agree, those in this forum that want to witness extreme winter weather should make a trip to NW MN where they have a fresh snow pack. I would expect temps to get to -30°F or lower sometime in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 a reanalysis of the event, a massive upper level low passes along the border. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1996/us0202.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Is it my imagination, or is the 0z GFS shifting the PV way to the east, thus leading to a warmer solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Is it my imagination, or is the 0z GFS shifting the PV way to the east, thus leading to a warmer solution? Not really, its just not as cold... Probably a realistic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Not really, its just not as cold... Probably a realistic solution. That would MAJORLY suck for the LES cause as the flow would be more northerly with that/this run. Hopefully that IS wrong. Thankfully plenty of time for that too change. And yeah if it is between what we have had vs this run of the GFS i'll take what we had. Hell i'll take a torch over this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Is it my imagination, or is the 0z GFS shifting the PV way to the east, thus leading to a warmer solution? First of all I don't put much store in the GFS beyond 192 hrs. Second there is a strong SSW event that is going on or just ended ( I didn't look to see if it is still going on) Third, it looks like the cold air should try and move to the south over the Lower 48, that signal is and has been very strong. But the MJO according to the models should not get out of Phase 6-7 which would favor above normal temps east of the Mississippi River. So will the cold drop on in? Yes I think it will, will temps be below normal? yes they will. But will we see wide spread temps setting cold records? I don't think so. I think the MJO signal is just strong enough to keep the coldest of the air just to our NE, where I believe it will get caught in the flow until it feels a strong east based NAO and drop down into Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So, realistically for a place in suburban Toronto I could maybe expect a high of -15C (5F) if the coldest air moves in the week of the 21st? With the December 26, 1993 outbreak, Toronto managed a high of -18C (0F) with bare ground. Ottawa saw a high of -26C (-15F)! I wouldn't mind seeing a morning low of -15F just to tie or surpass my previous thermometer record. Feasible but I don't think likely IMHO. I'm going to guess with UHI effect you would need to see -31C 850's over you. I think the coldest with air we see 24th or later will be -33C either in N. MN, UP of MI, or around Maine. Just a guess...not a forecast but a guess; for as far south as Toronto to hit -31 I think would be pushing it. But who knows, it could happen. I feel confident in my temp ranges I give but pin pointing where the air goes 10-15 days out is out of my expertise. I just know east of the Mississippi and west of the Atlantic haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 wait! Don't you know that extreme cold is linked to agw too! You can't escape them. Any extreme event that takes place from now on has been determined by academia to be cause by agw. I don't think there is anything that can happen anymore that they haven't already pre linked to it. Smh. I'll get back to your other question I have to look what kind of 850 temps are left over you guys and need to covert c to f haha. I'm on the road on phone. To hard to do by phone Keep the CC stuff in CC, we don't need it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I have no idea, they seem to last through the winter quite often... Patterns don't die easy.. The ling range shows the polar vortex rooted into place for the most part. Thanks for the answer, I have been often wondered the effects such ssw events have on summer months. Honesty though the Midwest is due for a below normal summer.. Last 3 dating back since 2010 have been awfully hot. Sitting at 32 degrees with wintry precipitation being observed, no snow accumulations likely, but seeing the temperatures drop 30 degrees in one day is always kinda mind blowing. Still waiting on that 6-8 inch snow event here, according to the models could be awhile..brutally cold and dry FTW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 00z Euro = Big Pun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 00z Euro = Big Pun It was quite zonal until day 9. I don't like this cold snap being pushed back more and more, almost like the elusive GFS cool down every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It was quite zonal until day 9. I don't like this cold snap being pushed back more and more, almost like the elusive GFS cool down every year. You gotta figure that it may happen one of these times considering the stratospheric developments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 You gotta figure that it may happen one of these times considering the stratospheric developments. Yes, but it sucks waiting so long for it to happen, the concern I have is with the MJO possibly stalling in phase 6/7 would favor warmer outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 With all the model biases (too cold, bring in cold too early) this is certainly no run-of-the-mill GFS LR fantasy cold snap. This is some serious cold. With the cold mongers griping the model is cutting back the cold, and the snow mongers lamenting imminent storm suppression...really makes you wish for the middle ground and just give everyone highs in the 20s, lows in the teens, and plenty of snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 6z GFS keeps the majority of the cold north of boarder. But of corse by 240hr it shows a fantasy arctic "drip". Yet another model run where the cold never really settles in and we are stuck with a quasi zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Cold keeps getting pushed back. Thats odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 First of all I don't put much store in the GFS beyond 192 hrs. Second there is a strong SSW event that is going on or just ended ( I didn't look to see if it is still going on) Third, it looks like the cold air should try and move to the south over the Lower 48, that signal is and has been very strong. But the MJO according to the models should not get out of Phase 6-7 which would favor above normal temps east of the Mississippi River. So will the cold drop on in? Yes I think it will, will temps be below normal? yes they will. But will we see wide spread temps setting cold records? I don't think so. I think the MJO signal is just strong enough to keep the coldest of the air just to our NE, where I believe it will get caught in the flow until it feels a strong east based NAO and drop down into Europe. Feasible but I don't think likely IMHO. I'm going to guess with UHI effect you would need to see -31C 850's over you. I think the coldest with air we see 24th or later will be -33C either in N. MN, UP of MI, or around Maine. Just a guess...not a forecast but a guess; for as far south as Toronto to hit -31 I think would be pushing it. But who knows, it could happen. I feel confident in my temp ranges I give but pin pointing where the air goes 10-15 days out is out of my expertise. I just know east of the Mississippi and west of the Atlantic haha. Well, that's a bit dissapointing. I guess the coldest we'll likely get is the 20s or low teens for highs, which admittedly is colder that the upper 50s we saw yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 In late Dec the storm pattern was very similar to this one. The major difference was the amount of cold in the storm and the major snows on the cold side. Each month had 4 rounds of sytems each ushering in the colder weather to the SE. So I'm thinking it might be a very long time before any substancial snow fall from the sky. At least 14 days, if this general pattern keeps up. Looking at the models this AM makes me think of how much snow we has last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I want the snow as much as anyone here, but also want the cold, in order to bring the mean temperature of this January down. You may have seen my list of Januaries in Toronto and their mean temperatures. I want to see if we can get this month's mean down to -5 or -6 celcius by the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Showing basically normal condtions, which are cold this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Showing basically normal condtions, which are cold this time of year. Yea, this usually has a warm bias too... We might get extreme cold as the euro is still showing, but it will moderate too soon to give us big negative departures.. We have a +5 to +10 departure to overcome on the month... Just not a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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