TaftonWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-300200- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0015.121229T1000Z-121230T0200Z/ SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA- LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE... MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON... MILFORD...HONESDALE 1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK. * HAZARDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONO PLATEAU...AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. * TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING THE WILKES-BARRE SCRANTON METRO AREA...HAZLETON...AND MONTROSE...BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE POCONOS AND SULLIVAN COUNTY BY AROUND 9 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10 AM AND 4 PM...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. * WINDS...LIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. MORE ELEVATED STRETCHES OF INTERSTATES 80...81... 84... 380...AND 476 ARE LIKELY TO HAVE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threeyoda Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Personally I can't stand that guy. Actually my feelings are much stronger than that, but no reason to completely bash someone who can't defend himself. The gradual but steady strengthening of the northern stream s/w has been telegraphed for days and several people have observed and discussed it. The obvious implications are (are were speculated upon previously) increased snow from S IL through IN, OH, and PA. The problem is, the persistent strenghening of this s/w has not led to a significant increase in QPF or slowing of forward speed with the SLP along the coastal plain. More likely, this feature will result in more snow over W and C NY. It remains to be seen how the coastal will behave, but the stuff from Steve D is pure hype. Ok, thanks for letting me know. I wasn't sure about him, as I just found his twitter earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I told people to take the 2-4 and run and stop hounding on any little bit that pushed the totals to 6. Karma people karma...just hope we can get something to plow at this point. and this was never a big storm...the signals were never there for more than a 2-4 storm, now we trending the wrong way and the trend aint our friend. People here have been spoiled grotesquely over the past several years, 2-4" used to be far more common. Now winters are big or bust really. I think 2008-2009 was the last real nickel and dime winter I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched... His forcast map can be found here which was updated at 3:55pm http://www.nynjpaweather.com/ Again I see zero hype with that at that time period If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched... His forcast map can be found here http://www.nynjpaweather.com/ Again I see zero hype with that Personally I can't stand that guy. Actually my feelings are much stronger than that, but no reason to completely bash someone who can't defend himself. The gradual but steady strengthening of the northern stream s/w has been telegraphed for days and several people have observed and discussed it. The obvious implications are (are were speculated upon previously) increased snow from S IL through IN, OH, and PA. The problem is, the persistent strenghening of this s/w has not led to a significant increase in QPF or slowing of forward speed with the SLP along the coastal plain. More likely, this feature will result in more snow over W and C NY. It remains to be seen how the coastal will behave, but the stuff from Steve D is pure hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Some pretty heavy snow ongoing in S IL just north of that potent vortmax in association with strong mid-level forcing. That feature is progged to cross the area tomorrow afternoon. Although it will weaken a little, if the developing coastal does not shut off the forcing mechanisms, there could be some enhanced precipitation from roughly EPA through NNJ, SENY, and probably north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-300200- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0015.121229T1000Z-121230T0200Z/ SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA- LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE... MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON... MILFORD...HONESDALE 1104 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS...ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK. * HAZARDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONO PLATEAU...AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. * TIMING...STEADY SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING THE WILKES-BARRE SCRANTON METRO AREA...HAZLETON...AND MONTROSE...BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE POCONOS AND SULLIVAN COUNTY BY AROUND 9 AM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10 AM AND 4 PM...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. * WINDS...LIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. MORE ELEVATED STRETCHES OF INTERSTATES 80...81... 84... 380...AND 476 ARE LIKELY TO HAVE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. Perfect, I'll be arriving at the in laws in the Poconos (Exit 13, Route 380) starting tomorrow right at the height of the heaviest snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Perfect, I'll be arriving at the in laws in the Poconos (Exit 13, Route 380) starting tomorrow right at the height of the heaviest snows. it will be over by evening. this is a quick 8hr or so storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 19/14 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched... His forcast map can be found here http://www.nynjpaweather.com/ Again I see zero hype with that He has been doing it for many years... always making extremely "weenyish" comments about the radar and satellite and making very aggressive assertions about what it means. I consider him an amateur. But much worse because he masquerades as a professional. Judging a meteorologist's ability is not an objective thing. Everyone has their own preference. And I'm sure he makes an insightful comment once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 it will be over by evening. this is a quick 8hr or so storm. I know, but if that advisory verifies though then at least I will enjoy the best snows this storm will have to offer at this latitude lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 If you view Steve D's forecast map he is and has in no way hyped this storm. On twitter he is just pointing out observations and he clearly states in his tweets that he has no need to change his current forecast but as with any storm things must be watched... His forcast map can be found here http://www.nynjpaweather.com/ Again I see zero hype with that He had one of the best forecasts on Sandy a week out and was consistent all the way through. I have to give him props for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I know, but if that advisory verifies though then at least I will enjoy the best snows this storm will have to offer at this latitude lol. what time are you leaving NJ for PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 He has been doing it for many years... always making extremely "weenyish" comments about the radar and satellite and making very aggressive assertions about what it means. I consider him an amateur. But much worse because he masquerades as a professional. Judging a meteorologist's ability is not an objective thing. Everyone has their own preference. And I'm sure he makes an insightful comment once in a while. I have no doubt he has some good knowledge about meteorology in general. No way you can say he doesn't with some detailed discussion on legit features of a storm or synoptic setup....but the way in which it is applied or hyped can be totally counter productive. I think he lost most of his credibility in the Vday 2007 storm...when he kept insisting even 12 hours before the event that I-95 would get hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 what time are you leaving NJ for PA? Probably late morning. Drive is probably going to be awful. If it is too risky, we will wait until it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 24.8/23.1 in Muttontown. Bring on the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I understand your point but this is not considered hyping. Unless his snow map and forecast show hyping then it is not hyping. He is just making an observation and stating that it can lead to a different solution. This being said he merely states its something to be watched but no change in the forecast is needed. If its amateur to look at current observations and compare them to the models/current forecast then I'm not to sure what professional means... His map is fine especially at the time it was created. He has been doing it for many years... always making extremely "weenyish" comments about the radar and satellite and making very aggressive assertions about what it means. I consider him an amateur. But much worse because he masquerades as a professional. Judging a meteorologist's ability is not an objective thing. Everyone has their own preference. And I'm sure he makes an insightful comment once in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Probably late morning. Drive is probably going to be awful. If it is too risky, we will wait until it ends. yea, either get ahead of the precip or wait til its almost over. unless you have the right vehicle, then it could be a fun drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 But we have all been wrong at some point : ) Anyway back to discussing the storm and less talk about what met is good or bad I have no doubt he has some good knowledge about meteorology in general. No way you can say he doesn't with some detailed discussion on legit features of a storm or synoptic setup....but the way in which it is applied or hyped can be totally counter productive. I think he lost most of his credibility in the Vday 2007 storm...when he kept insisting even 12 hours before the event that I-95 would get hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Down to 26.7/24....falling fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My family has a second home in Gouldsboro in the Pocono region just off of I-380. I have endured the worst driving conditions of my life on I-380 (which says a lot given the fact that I lived in Erie, PA for 2 years and Buffalo, NY, for 5 years). Waiting later in the day for the drive would likely be in your best interest. Be safe. Probably late morning. Drive is probably going to be awful. If it is too risky, we will wait until it ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 yea, either get ahead of the precip or wait til its almost over. unless you have the right vehicle, then it could be a fun drive. Certainly do not have the right vehicle. Nissan Altima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 My family has a second home in Gouldsboro in the Pocono region just off of I-380. I have endured the worst driving conditions of my life on I-380 (which says a lot given the fact that I lived in Erie, PA for 2 years and Buffalo, NY, for 5 years). Waiting later in the day for the drive would likely be in your best interest. Be safe. Lol I definitely know that waiting it out would be best. Big Bass Lake? My In Laws have their second home there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 But we have all been wrong at some point : ) Anyway back to discussing the storm and less talk about what met is good or bad You're sure right about that. Any met who hasn't had a big bust is either lying or has only forecast for like 2 storms in their career, lol. That said, that one was indefensible with a 12h lead time...so I don't feel bad about bringing it up. But I'm not going to bash a forecast by someone any longer who can't defend himself. So I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 mount holly at 922 pm AS FAR AS MODEL VERIFICATION GOES WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS OF00Z, THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE DONE THE BEST JOB WITH BOTH THE AREA EXTENT AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. POOREST JOB BY THE WRF-NMMB. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL PROJECTION AND THE GFS`S DOUBLE BARREL LOW LOOK LOOKS THE BEST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. PHL FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 1K OFF OF ACARS AND BWI AROUND 1200 FT, EWR NEARLY COMPLETELY BELOW. THE PHL ACAR SOUNDING ALSO HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10C IN THE LOWEST 5K. WITH SOUNDINGS LIKE THAT EVAPORATION AL COOLING SHOULD HELP MOST PLACES START AS SNOW ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES FOR PLACES AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST HOW LONG BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. THE 00Z SOUNDING 925MB TEMPS UPWIND OF US ON AVERAGE WERE 1-2C COLDER THAN WHAT THE MODELS WERE FORECASTING AND 0-1C COLDER AT 850MB. ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL AND WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM COMPENSATING FOR IT, WOULD THINK THE MODELS SHOULD BE COLDER WITH THE 00Z RUN OR AT LEAST COLDER THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AT 500MB THE GFS FCST VERIFIED THE BEST WHILE AT 250MB THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE, THE NAM FAILED TO BIFURCATE THE STREAKS. THE LATEST SREF RUN HAVE TRENDED WETTER VS WHITER SOUTHEAST OF THE FALL LINE AND THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING CLOSER TO THE LATE NOVEMBER EVENT WHERE ELEVATION WAS THE KEY FOR SNOW. ALBEIT THE SOUNDINGS WILL BE COLDER AND DRIER AT THE START EVERYWHERE. STILL TRYING TO WRAP OUR HEADS ON HOW THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMING SO EFFICIENTLY WITHOUT A BIG WIND PUSH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE LACK OF A SURFACE HIGH (LIKE WE HAD NORTH OF NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY) MAY BE THE REASON. WE DID NOT CHANGE ANY OF THE PRESENT HEADLINES OR FORECAST PENDING THE COMPLETE SUITE OF SOUNDING RUNS, BUT BASED ON THE TREND WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CURRENT OUTCOME NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE AND IT GETS SHAKIER IN THE I95 CORRIDOR, CONFIDENCE GROWS AGAIN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. CURRENT TEMPS ARE HOLDING WELL AND NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. WINDS WILL RELAX AND ONLY SOME CIRRUS WILL STOP US FROM RADIATING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER STAT GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE PUT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN PASS BY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 06Z, AND THAT WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO OCCUR. WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN OVERNIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS A LITTLE SOUTH), BUT THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN I295 AND I300 WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK, AND THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW EVERYWHERE IT FALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE FIRST PERIOD SOUTH AND WEST ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH ONE-HALF INCH. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Big Bass Lake indeed. We really have a lot of fun up there. It becomes a circus up there for New Year's Eve. The rest of the winter it's very, very quiet. Lol I definitely know that waiting it out would be best. Big Bass Lake? My In Laws have their second home there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Strongly disagree...a lot of LI, especially the North Shore, is going to do very well with this storm. North Shore if SE of I-95 but could have some impressive totals. I agree and am cautiously optimistic at the moment. Here in Port Jefferson, I think the worst would be a period of mixed precip between 3:00 PM and 6:00 PM...and a good chance for an accumulation of 3 inches or possibly more. At least one to two inches of snow should fall out here after 7:00 PM, maybe more if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 mount holly at 922 pm http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on Sounds like the lack of HP is the cause of the Models showing more rain for the I-95/SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Text output for NYC from 0z euro: .40" of precip Starts at 32 degrees at 7am. Then 35 degrees at 1pm with .11" fallen Then back down to 33 degrees by 7pm with .22" fallen Then down to 31.5 degrees by 1am with .07" fallen Not bad. Close call. Prob snow, mix, snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 BDR has .53". Surface is fine. At one point it jumps to 34 degrees bt is mostly around 31-32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 EWR is a similar temp profile to NYC. Precip is .36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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