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12/29 Winter Storm OBS/Disco Part II


earthlight

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Hey my account still works, apparently.

Anyway, I feel good about 2.5 to 5 or 3 to 6 area wide (save immediate shores). Two other comments: I saw someone link to MOS data as a sounding in the prior thread... It's not. Second, I was surprised that the NWS includes all the boros in the same advisory, and then notes that higher amounts will be away from the shore. Why not just split the southern boros (or southern part of Queens and BK for instance) into their own advisory... then include the northern boros in the one for the northern suburbs? Cutting hairs I know.

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I think there's still outside potential for the CCB to develop overhead and this to tick NW one more time. 11 or 12 of the SREF members have a QPF bomb over NYC and east as the best lift develops to the northwest of a surface low which is tucked in closer to the coast than most other models.

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I don't think there will be any heavy bands with this system....just a 6-8 hour quick hit of light snow sometimes moderate that leaves a large area of a few inches with some areas receiving up to 6 or 7....and in New England some areas receiving closer to a foot

The 12Z SPC WRF from earlier today sort of agrees with that idea, shows a decent hit but no notable banding as it often does show somewhere....00Z run may be different..

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/

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