Cashtown_Coop Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 26/22 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 joe snedeker says 1 to 3....maybe 2 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ABC27 is calling for 4-6 in Harrisburg north and 6-10+ in mifflin and juniata counties. So that 2-5" call for Williamsport makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wmsptwx I think that I am leaning towards what Mags forecast is for us. I think we got more Cad in place than the models are predicting. I think they are having a hard time handling that. I do think there is going to be more snow to the west of us as depicted in his map. It's a shame yesterday the models still couldn't come to an agreement. "24 hours out" Did anyone hear what the Euro run was showing last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Basically same as 12Z, slightly cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just a warning the snow has been changing to sleet very quickly in northern va as the precip pushes in. There is a warm layer making progress north. Not a good sign. I am very familiar with climo there and in pa and northwest va usually has good cad. Euro and gfs kept leesburg snow until midday but they went to sleet almost immediately. Might mean the nam is correct about the warm layer blasting north. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If the NAM scoops the Euro I'll eat my hat. FWIW CTP overnight bumped MDT from 1-3" to 2-4" and tool out verbiage regarding .1" of zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Haha, so now it's sleet & freezing rain around leesburg, va and snowing 40-50 miles to the South. It's going to be an interesting day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Oh boy so it begins....if it starts as sleet look out..major ice storm coming. 20 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I meant to include "south of leesburg". But apparently they have all changed back over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If the NAM scoops the Euro I'll eat my hat. FWIW CTP overnight bumped MDT from 1-3" to 2-4" and tool out verbiage regarding .1" of zr. Last night I thought the Nam was outlier in my opinion. With the higher QPF, holding the precipitation back some and the warmer temps. Euro has been pretty steady with it's runs. So hopefully the CAD will help you out. Nam is showing 5-6" for us. Snow moving into to Pa. http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Pressure falls along the NC coast, looks maybe a bit S of previous modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here is a nice radar from NWS http://www.srh.noaa....12890625&zoom=7 Edit: 850 temp not looking bad on HRRR http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Snowfall till 2200 hrs. UTC HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET * ACCUMULATIONS...THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW...MIXING WITH SLEET...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. Word. what's interesting about that is they have not changed Harrisburg area from 2-4" yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 what's interesting about that is they have not changed Harrisburg area from 2-4" yet... I saw that, but I'm sure it's coming. They probably wanted to get us updated ASAP since there were no headlines at all down here. Wonder if this means the WWA will switch to WSW for Cumberland, Dauphin, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Probably because they had already had the wording in place and did not make change to amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 NWS did change the WSW here to slightly upgrade amounts...still forecasting mixing. * LOCATIONS...SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE AREA...POCONOS AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 precip shield has been overhead for almost 30 mins now but nothing has made it to the ground. 30/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 heavy snow here. snow started fast. roads covered. temp 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 still 4 to 8 here with mixing forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nothing yet here in the southern end of Huntingdon County. Still seem to be the battleground between 2-4/3-6 and 4-8/5-10 depending on whom you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 big question of the morning folks. with the missing raob from ILN, did they correct the warm bias between 800 and 900 that plagued the 00Z model runs down at NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Holy ****! Right out of the gate storm's looking for the knockout. I posted "Snow" 3 minutes ago and it was just a light flurry action and BOOM. Visibility gone, winds have picked up. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Closest observing I found in W-B was WBRE rooftop...23.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 22 and overcast imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 big question of the morning folks. with the missing raob from ILN, did they correct the warm bias between 800 and 900 that plagued the 00Z model runs down at NCEP? Jim that’s a good point! NWS has a good discussion http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS MEAN SHOW A 5 TO 6 SIGMA 850MB EASTERLY U-WIND ANOMALY WHICH IS A CLASSIC SYNOPTIC FRONTAL-TYPE HEAVY PCPN SIGNAL. COMBINE THE PATTERN WITH SOME PTYPE/THERMAL PROBABILITIES AND YOU END UP WITH A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE NW AND N-CNTRL MTNS. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO INVOLVE PTYPES OVR THE CENTRAL ZONES FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND RIDGE-VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE SRN EDGES OF THE PCPN SHIELD /AS NOTED BY HPC WWD DISCUSSION/...STILL FEEL THAT FZRA MAY BE OVERDONE ESP OVER THE INTERIOR SXNS OF THE CWA AS FCST SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW A WEAK WARM INTRUSION AROUND H8 WHICH SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY WET-BULB EFFECTS. THIS FAVORS A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET AS OPPOSED TO FZRA. THE EXPECTED WINTRY MIX WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC REGARDING FINAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Edit: Nice comma http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Current obs from downtown Harrisburg. Cloudy and cool, 29 degrees. No snow. Bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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