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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread II

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awesome pics powderfreak! Hoping for a little snow shower/squall love tomorrow in Williston.

You able to take a drive to Bolton? The BTV discussion is getting me stoked for this weekend and upslope, haha. It would be worth the 25 minute ride from Williston up to 2,100ft at Bolton Valley.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 345 PM EST FRIDAY...FCST FOCUS WL SHIFT FROM THE WINDS TO

POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU SAT. WL

ISSUE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DACKS FROM 00Z TONIGHT THRU

06Z SUNDAY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. IN ADDITION...WL ISSUE

WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SLOPES/GREEN MTNS FOR 12Z SAT THRU

12Z SUNDAY...THINKING 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 10 INCHES NEAR

JAY PEAK/STOWE.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRES WL SLOWLY LIFT TWD SOUTHERN CANADA...AS THIS

HAPPENS COOLER AIR WL BE PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...WATER

VAPOR SHOWS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT ROTATING ACRS OUR

CWA...THEREFORE PRECIP WL BE VERY SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION AND GOOD MID

LVL MOISTURE ON BACKSIDE...WOULD EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP

AFT 03Z ACRS NORTHERN NY. THIS ACTIVITY WL REDEVELOP ACRS THE GREEN

MTNS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AS WIND TURN TO THE

WEST/NORTHWEST. QPF TONIGHT WL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER

0.20"...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2" POSSIBLE ACRS THE

NORTHERN DACKS. LITTLE ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WITH SOUTHERLY

WINDS AND CLOUDS ACRS THE CPV WL STAY IN THE MID 30S WITH U20S NEK

TO M20S DACKS/SLV.

SATURDAY...LOW PRES ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA WL ADVECT A SECONDARY

ARCTIC COLD FRNT ACRS OUR CWA. THIS SFC BOUNDARY WL HELP PRODUCE

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS. THIS

FRNT WL ALSO HELP CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTION TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST

AND REFOCUS UPSLOPE PRECIP. HIGH RESOLUTION BTV4 AND NAM12 SHOW GOOD

RH IN A DEEP FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WITH SFC TO 800MB WINDS

OF 20 TO 35 KNTS...FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LATEST 12Z BTV4 SHOWS

TOTAL QPF OF 0.62" AT JAY PEAK BY SUNDAY MIDDAY...ALONG WITH

INCREASING SNOW RATIOS OF 30 TO 1 BY SAT NIGHT...WL RESULT IN A

MODERATE SNOW EVENT. IN ADDITION...FAVORABLE WINDS AND GOOD 850 TO

700MB RH AND ENHANCED UVVS ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS/GREENS WL

PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THRU SAT NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS

WL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12

INCHES POSSIBLE FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE TO SUGARBUSH BY SUNDAY

MIDDAY. WL ISSUE ADVISORY TO COVER THIS SNOW EVENT.

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Thank you! I am only here until Jan 3rd. Need to get a decent snow before then. I have pretty much ruled out a White Christmas in the CPV.

Euro op/ens give you some love Xmas day.

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awesome pics powderfreak! Hoping for a little snow shower/squall love tomorrow in Williston.

I'm not sure where you are in Williston, but you could pick up a couple inches tomorrow and tomorrow night I think.

The BTV WRF is showing 0.1< QPF over Williston between 7am Sat and 7am Sun. Honestly to me this looks like an event with some decent blocking so I'm not going gung-ho for here in Stowe Village. I think we end up with 1-3/2-4" (plus temps are pretty marginal during the day tomorrow with 31-34F) out towards the Village area...with a sharp gradient as usual as you drive RT 108/Mountain Road towards the ski resort.

Anyway with these events that show more blocking and west side QPF, Williston is usually about where the snow starts. Sometimes you'll have a dusting or less in BTV but then 2-3" of fluff by the time you are going over French Hill in Willison on I-89. But as usual, the ski resorts of Bolton Valley, Stowe, and Smuggs will clean up. Jay Peak to the north (outside of image) also sees >0.5" QPF and also has to be a favored location in this type of set-up.

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KMPV coming in with a high gust of 35mph on the hourly obs. Must have been higher at some point, it was howling. Temp got up to 45F. Same as my house. Pretty nice drop over the last couple of hours, down to 33.3F with stars showing. Still some snow cover though the exposed fields got whacked. Would like to see a little accumulation to brighten things back up but not counting on it away from the spine.

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Power back on. Trees and power lines down across roads in quite a few places. 62 mph gust here at home in Bath when the squall line came through. Shortly after, winds dropped off substantially to gusts around 15 to 20 mph. Now just a gentle breeze. Currently 43.8°F. Snowfall this morning was 1/2 inch and rainfall today 0.89 inch.

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I drove from Burlington to Waterbury in the mid afternoon period today, so I’ll pass along some temperature and snowpack observations from the area. In Burlington the temperature was 47 F and there was no sign of any snow in the ground. In fact, I didn’t see a single trace of snow until I got to Jonesville, where the only snow that remained was some old plow piles at the main town junction with the bridge. Beyond that, traces of old snow from drifted areas began to appear right in the town of Bolton, and they began to get a little more numerous through Bolton Flats, but even at the far east end of Bolton Flats there’s essentially nothing for snow cover. The snow cover then starts to build as one rises past the Bolton/Waterbury line, and eventually you get to full cover except for south facing slopes. Here at the house we’ve got 1-2” of snow on the ground, down a bit from the 3” that I recorded this morning. Boy was it pouring once I got into the mountains this afternoon – I’m sure some places received much more, but there’s another 0.70” of liquid here in the rain gauge to add to the 0.25” from the snow this morning. Another notable change through the trip were the temperatures, which stayed up near 46-47 F for almost the entire route, before falling quickly once I approached the east side of the Greens. It was 40 F when I arrived at home, so quite a difference from areas to the west despite minimal elevation change. It’s 36 F now here at the house, and the current point forecast says 11:00 P.M. range for the change back to snow, although there’s not much accumulation called for until tomorrow.

The snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield stake is up a couple inches to 22” from the front end of this system.

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There's some sort of meso-scale (within the meso-scale precip) feature that must just be crushing someone in western Chittenden County...that pencil thin heavy line has got to be ridiculous snowfall rates given the fluff factor here right now.

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There's some sort of meso-scale (within the meso-scale precip) feature that must just be crushing someone in western Chittenden County...that pencil thin heavy line has got to be ridiculous snowfall rates given the fluff factor here

Just glanced at the dualpol hydrometeor classification quickly and it was detecting graupel in those bands. Not sure how close to reality that is, but those cells did look convective.

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35/30 for the last 4 hours with S winds. I would almost give up snow the rest of the month to kick this flu, but I'm not that delirious yet.

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Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.95” L.E.

It looks like snow had just started prior to my morning observations, with a tenth of an inch found on the snowboard, but recently it has really ramped up in intensity – presumably in association with that band of 30-35 db echoes that just crashed through the area:

22DEC12A.gif

When I went to check the result on the snowboard, my wife said it had just been squalling very hard outside, and it dropped about a half inch of snow in the span of a few minutes. Hopefully there will be more of that today. The point forecast actually calls for less than a half inch of snow during the day today, but I think we’re going to get at least that since we’ve had 0.6” this morning already. I’ve added the latest advisory and accumulations maps, and the advisory text below:

22DEC12A.jpg

22DEC12B.jpg

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

335 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

VTZ003-006-008-016>019-222100-

/O.CON.KBTV.WW.Y.0016.121222T1200Z-121223T1200Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...

MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...

RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

335 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS

MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...FROM 7 AM THIS

MORNING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER

AMOUNTS FROM JAY PEAK TO STOWE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE WEST

SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW

WILL BE HEAVIER AT TIMES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE

TAPERING OFF BY SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING

SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S THIS MORNING...DROPPING

THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT

VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND

BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN

AREAS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: T

Temperature: 34.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 1.0 inches

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I don't know the local micro climates all that well yet here but I appreciate the thoughts and yes I will drive to Bolton once it begins to crank today. We had some light snow overnight which left a dusting (that dusting is disappearing a bit now). We could luck out once the winds go NW as stated above. Yeah the Euro apparently gives us snow from an ULL on Monday Night-Tues (which would be awesome!). Also still looking decent for Thu.

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There's some sort of meso-scale (within the meso-scale precip) feature that must just be crushing someone in western Chittenden County...that pencil thin heavy line has got to be ridiculous snowfall rates given the fluff factor here right now.
Just glanced at the dualpol hydrometeor classification quickly and it was detecting graupel in those bands. Not sure how close to reality that is, but those cells did look convective.

Indeed I think the dualpol knows it’s stuff, because when I went down to check on the snow, my wife asked me if I “heard” what just went through. I hadn’t heard anything upstairs, but she said it was like heavy sleet was hitting the windows. Based on what you’ve said, I bet it was graupel – I’ll have to see what’s in the snow core later today.

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Just glanced at the dualpol hydrometeor classification quickly and it was detecting graupel in those bands. Not sure how close to reality that is, but those cells did look convective.

You're right... when it moved through we had some heavy snow mixed with graupel. It was still pretty heavy precipitation with a quick half inch when that moved through.

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You're right... when it moved through we had some heavy snow mixed with graupel. It was still pretty heavy precipitation with a quick half inch when that moved through.

When I went to check the result on the snowboard, my wife said it had just been squalling very hard outside, and it dropped about a half inch of snow in the span of a few minutes. Hopefully there will be more of that today. The point forecast actually calls for less than a half inch of snow during the day today, but I think we’re going to get at least that since we’ve had 0.6” this morning already. I’ve added the latest advisory and accumulations maps, and the advisory text below:

lol... sounds about right. We need more of those bands, haha.

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There's some sort of meso-scale (within the meso-scale precip) feature that must just be crushing someone in western Chittenden County...that pencil thin heavy line has got to be ridiculous snowfall rates given the fluff factor here right now.

That band was associated with a frontal boundary and wind shift that propagated through. Drove through it between Jonesville and Richmond and it was dumping heavy snow and graupel. Quickly covered the roads.

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Quite a day yesterday--went from lovely fresh snow to the wet, mild & windy.

Topped out at 44F, picked up 0.45" of rain and the 6" we had on the ground here was knocked down to 2".

Awaiting some snow squalls today--not here yet but hopefull they're on the way....And don't look now but I see flakes as I type...!

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The rain/wind exited abruptly at 8 PM last night, though at my place gusts never topped 40 mph. Storm totals: 2.5" snow 5-9 AM, with 0.19" LE. Rain noon-8 PM, 1.78", most coming after 4 PM. High temp was 44. Still 7" at the stake, down from 8" pre-storm. That 8" was so dense - perhaps 3:1 - that no settling occurred, only some melting and the well-above-freezing temps lasted only a few hr.

Cloudy and near 32 here at 9 AM, and plenty of use for the wood ashes on driveway and paths.

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Forecasting for Vermont AOT today. Thinking southern Vermont will be ok with just a few inches except on the Western slopes and should see 2-5" of snow. Head north though along the greens on the western side they should see anywhere from 4 to as much as 9 inches of snow. Wouldn't put pass someone getting a solid 12" though. I love orographic precipitation forecasting!

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Forecasting for Vermont AOT today. Thinking southern Vermont will be ok with just a few inches except on the Western slopes and should see 2-5" of snow. Head north though along the greens on the western side they should see anywhere from 4 to as much as 9 inches of snow. Wouldn't put pass someone getting a solid 12" though. I love orographic precipitation forecasting!

We haven't recieved much accumulation between 8-11am... wind is so strong it seems to be falling more sideways and less "down."

However, just in the last 15-20 minutes snow growth has improved marketly to big snow globe flakes and its coming down pretty hard now on Mansfield. I saw earlier it looked like the Sugarbush/Mad River Glen area was getting hit hard with a persistent 25-35dbz area which usually equates to near 1"/hr in these situations.

Here's the composite radar on top and a lower elevation scan on the bottom. Moisture just getting shoved up into the mountains. I love this stuff.

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