GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 On the 12Z GFS, the 1/1-2 storm is largely delayed til 1/2-3 and there is not much of a cold high to the north (delay probably hurts since it allows the cold high to move away pre-precip.). This combined with a track well inland means relatively little wintry precip. for most of the SE US. So, this is not a good run to see, but there is such a long way to go. I'm sticking with a 25% chance for a sig. wintry precip. event (say 1"+ S/IP and/or 0.25"+ of ZR) around 1/1-2 for the bulk of N GA from ATL-AHN north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 horrible run. warm advection galore for christmas and now new year in the piedmont of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No concern. Gfs has flipped and flopped for several weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No concern. Gfs has flipped and flopped for several weeks True and hopefully this is just an ugly blip, but the GFS has been too cold on average going back at least to Oct. Examples: there were a couple of runs giving KATL a tie for their coldest on record (28) in Oct. Well, KATL STILL hasn't gotten down to 28! The colder runs have largely not been verifying while the warmer ones have been doing better. This reminds me a little of the winter of 2001-2 but not to that great a degree. During that winter, the MRF/AVN (now GFS) were bringing down epic cold airmasses galore. Whereas it was a great winter snowwise for N GA with that one major snow early in Jan. and there was some decent cold, the really severe cold stayed away. Also, like Dec. 2012, JB was terrible with his calling for so much severe cold throughout the winter. I assume he was partially riding the cold GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 2nd run I've seen with a strong PV split,this one goes up to 2 hpa!Almost a complete strat split. This run takes the split PV into far eastern Canada,tip of Greenland not like yesterdays run that put it near Hudson Bay.That's why we don't see the colder air.Need this feature to go there to get the ball rolling faster if not we're going to have to wait a while longer.Just another solution so just keep watching. Still have strong warming on guidance over the NW,Alaska but the -PNA is still trying to fight back.This could be a battle all winter. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 192 hr on Euro looks like a nice setup. Lets see where it goes from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nothing to really see on the 12z euro as far as a New Year storm goes. There's a storm that work's across the midwest that taps into some gulf moisture on 12/29 but floods the SE w/ warm gulf air. Looks like some nice rains for the SE though. As far as the system around 1/2 or 1/3, the euro never brings into baja and it just spins out in the pacific. I'm out to hr 222 so will see if anything interesting happens before the end of the run. One thing is it's cold, just cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 at hr 228 it does look like a nice split flow is setting up. I like the looks of the map at 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Still a real nice western ridge, probably need to see the trough back up a little west for the next wave to amplify. Still lots of time and some potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 at 240 there is a piece of energy coming across the southern jet. Looks like a good setup. We'll have to see where it leads in future runs. Ok, the wife is waiting on me to go to the mall to finish Christmas shopping. Yea, sounds fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Still a real nice western ridge, probably need to see the trough back up a little west for the next wave to amplify. Still lots of time and some potential I agree, it would be nice to see that ridge further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The 12Z Euro has dry, cold WNW flow as of 12z on 1/1 and no indication of any impending storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ENS is a good hit for the SE with the New Years day storm Snow for ATL CAE and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ENS is a good hit for the SE with the New Years day storm Snow for ATL CAE and points north. storm the other day was a let down and now what looked like a good storm after Christmas for wnc now looks like another disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 storm the other day was a let down and now what looked like a good storm after Christmas for wnc now looks like another disappointment The storm for Christmas has always been on the edge of being a let down and should have always been looked at as simply a bonus. For once cold air with a good setup is modeled something this one did not have going for it. Obviously it's so far away anything can happen but it's a great sign that in continues to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yes. I 100% agree with the statement below. This statement is very true around MBY as well as many east of the apps.. The storm for Christmas has always been on the edge of being a let down and should have always been looked at as simply a bonus. For once cold air with a good setup is molded something this one did not have going for it. Obviously it's so far away anything can happen but it's a great sign that in continues to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Euro ensembles and I would like to wish everyone in the southeast a happy new year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 storm the other day was a let down and now what looked like a good storm after Christmas for wnc now looks like another disappointment Calm down young weenie, our time will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yes. I 100% agree with the statement below. This statement is very true around MBY as well as many east of the apps.. It's going to take a couple of cutters to lay down enough Midwestern and Ohio valley snow-cover to get StrongWx in Ellenboro and the rest of us where we want to be once we turn the page into January always in favor of the -10C 5000ft isotherm laying along the Ohio River and that is certainly not the case at the present time to help turn the pattern down the road, I'm all for this deepening and riding the Apps or slightly west along a Gadsden, AL to Crossville, TN line as long as severe weather doesn't rip someone's face off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The storm for Christmas has always been on the edge of being a let down and should have always been looked at as simply a bonus. For once cold air with a good setup is modeled something this one did not have going for it. Obviously it's so far away anything can happen but it's a great sign that in continues to show up. its the old getting hyped up for the christmas storm because we all want snow for christmas even if its a day after. even though i knew it was on the edge i was hoping it would come south and east with time but it doesn't look like its going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The weather gods are determined to cram as many cutters as possible before years end! Another one right before New Years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The weather gods are determined to cram as many cutters as possible before years end! Another one right before New Years... It's a strung out mess in the gulf but it does not cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's going to take a couple of cutters to lay down enough Midwestern and Ohio valley snow-cover to get StrongWx in Ellenboro and the rest of us where we want to be once we turn the page into January always in favor of the -10C 5000ft isotherm laying along the Ohio River and that is certainly not the case at the present time to help turn the pattern down the road, I'm all for this deepening and riding the Apps or slightly west along a Gadsden, AL to Crossville, TN line as long as severe weather doesn't rip someone's face off Thanks for the input...and you def. win for screen name of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Folks ... I would like to welcome chief met of fox 21 Carolina in Spartanburg - greenville Andy Wood to AMWX!!!! Show this great dude some love here! Look forward to hearing your thoughts here bro!!! It's going to take a couple of cutters to lay down enough Midwestern and Ohio valley snow-cover to get StrongWx in Ellenboro and the rest of us where we want to be once we turn the page into January always in favor of the -10C 5000ft isotherm laying along the Ohio River and that is certainly not the case at the present time to help turn the pattern down the road, I'm all for this deepening and riding the Apps or slightly west along a Gadsden, AL to Crossville, TN line as long as severe weather doesn't rip someone's face off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Folks ... I would like to welcome chief met of fox 21 Carolina in Spartanburg - greenville Andy Wood to AMWX!!!! Show this great dude some love here! Look forward to hearing your thoughts here bro!!! I thought that was him, we had a falling out on facebook last year. but welcome aboard Andy! Another great track in fantasy land for the New Yearish storm on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's going to take a couple of cutters to lay down enough Midwestern and Ohio valley snow-cover to get StrongWx in Ellenboro and the rest of us where we want to be once we turn the page into January always in favor of the -10C 5000ft isotherm laying along the Ohio River and that is certainly not the case at the present time to help turn the pattern down the road, I'm all for this deepening and riding the Apps or slightly west along a Gadsden, AL to Crossville, TN line as long as severe weather doesn't rip someone's face off It's about time you started posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thanks for the input...and you def. win for screen name of the year. If there was a "Best Username OTY" award he would easily win it. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Welcome Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I thought that was him, we had a falling out on facebook last year. but welcome aboard Andy! Another great track in fantasy land for the New Yearish storm on the 18z. before I get banned or told to take this to the banter thread... Strong, I really appreciate the Fox promotion to chief.. so where do I send the check? your addr sir? Franklin is a good friend... and Burger, nothing but love for ya... you are one of the better posters on here and have enjoyed your Euro play-by-plays since you seem to get the maps more quickly than anyone on the eastern seaboard Delta, msuwx & Foothills are all good friends and have knowledgeable input, but I'm not telling you anything you don't know Back on topic: let's hope the subtropical jet keeps kicking and the SOI can at least stay negative at times. The more systems we get to roll across the higher the probability we cash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 before I get banned or told to take this to the banter thread... Strong, I really appreciate the Fox promotion to chief.. so where do I send the check? your addr sir? Franklin is a good friend... and Burger, nothing but love for ya... you are one of the better posters on here and have enjoyed your Euro play-by-plays since you seem to get the maps more quickly than anyone on the eastern seaboard Delta, msuwx & Foothills are all good friends and have knowledgeable input, but I'm not telling you anything you don't know Back on topic: let's hope the subtropical jet keeps kicking and the SOI can at least stay negative at times. The more systems we get to roll across the higher the probability we cash. Awesome. You're my favorite winter weather TV weatherman....(Hopefully, that brief welcome will not be deleted ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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