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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

Alpha5

By Alpha5,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Sounds like we may all be able to get into some lake effect.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND

THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION

BY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -12C BY THURSDAY

MORNING AND TO NEAR -16C BY THURSDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL

INITIALLY BE LACKING...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND

ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE RETURNS IN COMBINATION WITH A

RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE

INDUCED CONVECTIVE DEPTHS TO RISE TO ALMOST 10 KFT WITH MODIFIED

LAKE CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY REQUIRE

HEADLINES...BUT STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT TO GET SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT

BUT WITH THE FETCH LIKELY TO BE WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS JUST

SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS.

THE COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF

THE WEEKEND...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. 850 MB

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR -20C...CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO

KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GOING. WEAK WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE

UPPER TROUGH AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LAKE SNOW

PRODUCTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD IN A

GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUING TO PLACE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE

BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.

A CLIPPER LOW WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT

THE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING THE LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARD

INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND

SATURDAY NIGHT. AREA OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO DEVELOP INTO

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO WEST

NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER...BRINGING THE LAKE

SNOWS BACK TO FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE

LATEST ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS A STRONGER WAVE WORKING INTO THE GREAT

LAKES ALLOWING A FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE

BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Sounds like we may all be able to get into some lake effect.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND

THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION

BY THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -12C BY THURSDAY

MORNING AND TO NEAR -16C BY THURSDAY EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL

INITIALLY BE LACKING...BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND

ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE RETURNS IN COMBINATION WITH A

RESPECTABLE SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE

INDUCED CONVECTIVE DEPTHS TO RISE TO ALMOST 10 KFT WITH MODIFIED

LAKE CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY REQUIRE

HEADLINES...BUT STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT TO GET SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT

BUT WITH THE FETCH LIKELY TO BE WEST NORTHWEST FAVORED AREAS JUST

SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WILL LIKELY SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT

IMPACTS.

THE COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF

THE WEEKEND...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. 850 MB

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR -20C...CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO

KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GOING. WEAK WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE

UPPER TROUGH AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LAKE SNOW

PRODUCTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD IN A

GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

CONTINUING TO PLACE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS JUST SOUTH OF THE

BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.

A CLIPPER LOW WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT

THE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING THE LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARD

INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND

SATURDAY NIGHT. AREA OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO DEVELOP INTO

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO WEST

NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER...BRINGING THE LAKE

SNOWS BACK TO FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREA FOR SUNDAY. THE

LATEST ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS A STRONGER WAVE WORKING INTO THE GREAT

LAKES ALLOWING A FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE

BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

 

West/Northwest Flow again...Yuck.

 

Seems NWS is contradicting itself though...Says predominant W/NW flow and then goes on to state JUST SOUTH of Buffalo and Watertown which would mean WSW flow. ^_^

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

West/Northwest Flow again...Yuck.

Seems NWS is contradicting itself though...Says predominant W/NW flow and then goes on to state JUST SOUTH of Buffalo and Watertown which would mean WSW flow. ^_^

i have a feeling this ones gonna suck for us. Will literally prob be within 5 miles to the south of both of us most of the time. When the flow does back it will prob drift quickly through us and then to Buffalo before drifting back to the south and sitting just to the south of us once again. Bulls eye around here will prob be from Boston to Colden to Warsaw on the northern edge and Dunkirk to Perrysburg to Springville on the southern edge. Moisture looks much better than the last event and a predominately west (WNW to WSW) flow gives us much more fetch. At least we shouldn't have to go far to chase this event.

Edit to add: we will also prob see some good totals along the Chautauqua Ridge from Sherman to Cassadaga/Cherry Creek with some nice perpendicular upslope flow. This event may be one where Dunkirk sees less than 6" while inland 4-5 miles but 800-1000 feet higher someone sees 24"+.

Very excited as this may be our last good lake effect event of the season.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

i have a feeling this ones gonna suck for us. Will literally prob be within 5 miles to the south of both of us most of the time. When the flow does back it will prob drift quickly through us and then to Buffalo before drifting back to the south and sitting just to the south of us once again. Bulls eye around here will prob be from Boston to Colden to Warsaw on the northern edge and Dunkirk to Perrysburg to Springville on the southern edge. Moisture looks much better than the last event and a predominately west (WNW to WSW) flow gives us much more fetch. At least we shouldn't have to go far to chase this event.

Edit to add: we will also prob see some good totals along the Chautauqua Ridge from Sherman to Cassadaga/Cherry Creek.

Very excited as this may be our last good lake effect event of the season.

 

LOL how can you have a bad feeling about this yet. Its like 5 days away...Last event was predominantly NW/WNW and we got hit with like a foot of snow over 4 days. ^_^ Anything can happen! I really hope the airport gets clobbered, those north towners need a good hit. They've been hurting hard this year. I have a much better feeling about this event than the last. Also, I don't think it will be our last by any stretch. We have 2-3 weeks of straight cold to get that lake frozen. 40s and 50s for 3 days will remove whatever ice is on the lake. The middle to northeastern portion of the lake is the deepest and takes quite awhile to freeze than the rest.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

West/Northwest Flow again...Yuck.

 

Seems NWS is contradicting itself though...Says predominant W/NW flow and then goes on to state JUST SOUTH of Buffalo and Watertown which would mean WSW flow. ^_^

Yeah, it might be a typo. It looks like the Euro and GFS have a mainly westerly flow at 850 mb, with the band likely to oscillate north or south as a few shortwaves move through the region. The Tug Hill will probably have the greatest accumulations if this scenario pans out.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Yeah, it might be a typo. It looks like the Euro and GFS have a mainly westerly flow at 850 mb, with the band likely to oscillate north or south as a few shortwaves move through the region. The Tug Hill will probably have the greatest accumulations if this scenario pans out.

 

yes.

 

that's almost always a good bet anyway lol.

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

Looks like a typo to me. The way I take it literally, the AFD suggests the possibility of Southern Erie to Southtowns Friday/Friday night, shifting northward with the trough into Buffalo and points NW Saturday and Saturday night, then returning south on Sunday before tapering off. Correct me if I'm wrong.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Looks like a typo to me. The way I take it literally, the AFD suggests the possibility of Southern Erie to Southtowns Friday/Friday night, shifting northward with the trough into Buffalo and points NW Saturday and Saturday night, then returning south on Sunday before tapering off. Correct me if I'm wrong.

i hope your right. That would make alot of us happy here in WNY. A nice widespread 6"+ anywhere from Boston and Colden to Tonawanda and N Amherst. Its been a while since theres been a LES Warning for both Northern and Southern Erie County.
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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

Well, this is based on parsing the AFD, not any meteorological knowledge. Since this is my first winter in western NY, I don't know enough to be disappointed, but I am a bit surprised that I've seen less snow in North Buffalo this year than I got in good years in NYC or Boston. Reputation isn't everything, right? But I'm going to play the weenie card for once and say that this has me more optimistic than anything else I've seen this winter.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Well, this is based on parsing the AFD, not any meteorological knowledge. Since this is my first winter in western NY, I don't know enough to be disappointed, but I am a bit surprised that I've seen less snow in North Buffalo this year than I got in good years in NYC or Boston. Reputation isn't everything, right? But I'm going to play the weenie card for once and say that this has me more optimistic than anything else I've seen this winter.

 

Yeah, last winter and this one so far are far from "Normal" around here. However, North Buffalo receives some of the lowest snowfall totals of all of WNY due to needing a SW/SSW flow to hit them. Majority of WNY receives 50-70% of its yearly snowfall from Lake effect or lake enhanced snow. Hopefully things change around here later this week.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

BUF metro looks nice for Friday night through possibly Sunday.

 

You mean this?   =0

 

What's your early thoughts on this possible event?

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OFTHE WEEKEND...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. 850 MBTEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR -20C...CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TOKEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GOING. WEAK WAVES RIDING THROUGH THEUPPER TROUGH AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LAKE SNOWPRODUCTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD IN AGENERAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING TO PLACE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS JUST SOUTH OF THEBUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.A CLIPPER LOW WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFTTHE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING THE LAKE SNOWS NORTHWARDINTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS FOR A TIME SATURDAY ANDSATURDAY NIGHT. AREA OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THECLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO DEVELOP INTOTHE SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD SHIFT BACK TO WESTNORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER...BRINGING THE LAKESNOWS BACK TO FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREA FOR SUNDAY. THELATEST ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS A STRONGER WAVE WORKING INTO THE GREATLAKES ALLOWING A FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THEBEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECTSNOWS.HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXTWEEKEND WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY INTHE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE LIKELYAT TIMES.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

yeah they mentioned it in the disco the other day.  The euro was quite gung ho last night on WSW/SW flow for a good period.  GFS looks a bit more like a 260 type thing...and the NAM is backing the flow towards the direction as it stops running at 84 hours.

 

Are moisture, Delta Ts, Shear all in check as well? Any detrimental conditions that would prevent a good band going for Buffalo? I mean Friday Night to Sunday is a LONG time for LES if its on a WSW/SW flow. You really think someone is going to get feet possibly?

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Are moisture, Delta Ts, Shear all in check as well? Any detrimental conditions that would prevent a good band going for Buffalo? I mean Friday Night to Sunday is a LONG time for LES if its on a WSW/SW flow. You really think someone is going to get feet possibly?

 

well i don't think it would be that persistent...I didn't mean the band was going to be over the city the whole time lol.  Just synoptically it's a good period...it may end up being 2 times...since there is 2 clippers that pass through in that time frame.

 

I could see feet...but it's too early to go that crazy yet. 

 

Shear conditions look good...delta-ts aren't fantastic...but plenty sufficient.  And mositure and some synoptic lift should be good as the shortwaves approach.

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scottmartin49

scottmartin49

Posted
Posted

This AM's change in the Jet forecasts don't look good for central Tug snow Thurs./Fri.; Any LES updates?

 

 

what do you mean?

Monday nights' 300mb forecast maps showed a good steady westerly flow for Thursday into Friday- Tuesday AM's went WSW shifting to WSE. That's usually just a blowby for us- no steady snowfall.

 

Here's where I watch them; http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html

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