PB GFI Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Any precip that falls on the " light " side because it doesnt involve deepening will make it hard for any precip to fall in the form of snow in the city . And right now outside of the UKMET s wetter scenerio there isnt much model support for the boundary level to be cool enough here . It could change , but dont just look at the 850`s we dont live 1 mile in the sky . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Yup, cold air mass already established and being reinforced as storm approaches....I think 90-100 percent of what falls area wide will be snow...just how much. A little more amped or if the 1st shortwave holds together a little longer would procure a more robus solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The NAM doesn't really generate heavy enough precip to cool the column here so it's rain from the city east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 GFS and the Nam are similiar. Prints out .10-.20 for the area. Rain and snow looks like the deal come Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 12z RGEM looks a little more amped up than the GFS and Nam http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Looks terrible. Barely any precip NW of LI, and mainly rain until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I kinda disagree with you here. I think what many are trying to say is that without a reasonable low pressure system, we are not going to advect much cold air from the north when it matters most. I agree that precip rates are going to be important, but once Tues. comes around, the airmass will be quite stagnant. What part of OVERRUNNING do you not understand? You need heavy precip, not storm strength. Overrunning storms are never strong, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I kinda disagree with you here. I think what many are trying to say is that without a reasonable low pressure system, we are not going to advect much cold air from the north when it matters most. I agree that precip rates are going to be important, but once Tues. comes around, the airmass will be quite stagnant. We're talking about 850 temps. Since when does that have anything to do with advection from the North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Looks terrible. Barely any precip NW of LI, and mainly rain until the end. Anything past hour 48, is last nights ggem. Rgem looks amped up. We'll see ggem soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Steve D brought up a good point. The sampling isn't going to come ashore until the 0z runs tonight. We have seen shifts at the last minute. I don't think anyone should give up yet. Also, he explains how some gulf moisture might interact with this storm. Interesting. It's only out to 48 The precip rates that end up verifying will dictate the P-Types for the city out across Long Island. The BL is cold enough either way for snow north and west, but we need heavy enough precip to get an accumulating snow near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Ok so this event looks to be a "non-event" for most.. Maybe a few inches of snow somewhere, but showers elsewhere..... What are these models depicting for early December and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'm more concerned about the surface. We're talking about 850 temps. Since when does that have anything to do with advection from the North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'm more concerned about the surface. IF precip comes down "decently", the surface will respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 This run has some issues, h5 looks pretty decent imho but in actuality the sfc depiction is not producing. Agree. Should have been more north with a better precip field. 12z GGEM is flat and horrible. Euro should go south based off the other runs. Maybe you should give the models more credit and not insist they're wrong for no reason. 12 hours is quite the flip flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Steve D brought up a good point. The sampling isn't going to come ashore until the 0z runs tonight. We have seen shifts at the last minute. I don't think anyone should give up yet. Also, he explains how some gulf moisture might interact with this storm. Interesting. Shocking. Funny how no one was whining about the "lack of sampling" when the models were showing snow for the area. How strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 At the moment it looks like a minor event...but even a coating to an inch of snow is a pleasant surprise in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro is further south. Looks like rain and snow showers for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 What part of OVERRUNNING do you not understand? You need heavy precip, not storm strength. Overrunning storms are never strong, i just saw ths so sorry to get back late. u dont accumulate overruning .10 inch liquid into 40degree air. 850s dont get to the surface unless u r precipatating hard and outside the ukmet. secondly u compared ths to nov 7 ths system and thats a little silly. ths time around. no deepening system. ugly boundary layer all spell yuck as far as im concerned. but enjoy ur sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Some members of the SREF look nice http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 HPC afternoon qpf update still going with .25 - .50 amounts in central NJ through most of NYC and LI - the northern part of this strip of higher precip will more then likely IMO be the area with 1 -3 inches of snow possible http://www.hpc.ncep....fill_9jewbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Mt. Holly's snow forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 just look at the speed of that trough crashin into the west coast .it breaks the ridge.down and keeps the pattern progressive si theres no real buckling of the jet of the east coast. this system just flies thru the flow and ejects ene. too flat for us. any deepening will b off to our east and northeast. ths one is looks fleeting to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Some really terrible posts in here the past 12 hours or so. Think before you post please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Mt. Holly's snow forecast: Is there any model even showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Some really terrible posts in here the past 12 hours or so. Think before you post please. Thanks for keeping me from reading all that crap, saved a bunch of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Thanks for keeping me from reading all that crap, saved a bunch of time. Lol, I just unapproved a ridiculous amount a posts a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Is there any model even showing that? The 15z SREF mean plumes show a half-decent chance of 1" accumulation in that general area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The 15z SREF mean plumes show a half-decent chance of 1" accumulation in that general area I ask cause that would lead me to believe that the HV sees accumulating snowfall as well and I just can't see that now considering the recent trends.. Upton seems to think we do as well.. Monday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 25. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Snow likely, mainly between 9am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Upton Heres the updated map from Upton.. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 a half inch of snow in November is about average and we already got 5" in the bank...November 2012 will turn out as one of the coldest and snowiest in many a year...It's making up for the lack of measurable November snowfall since 1996... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 a half inch of snow in November is about average and we already got 5" in the bank...November 2012 will turn out as one of the coldest and snowiest in many a year...It's making up for the lack of measurable November snowfall since 1996... This *1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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