NorEaster27 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Weak storm is the main issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 NAM is the best model from 0-48 hrs out. At this time it is best to use the ECMWF and GFS models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Rain and snow showers on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Rain and snow showers on the GFS This run has some issues, h5 looks pretty decent imho but in actuality the sfc depiction is not producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 This run has some issues, h5 looks pretty decent imho but in actuality the sfc depiction is not producing. Agree. Should have been more north with a better precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Cold air not the issue...we just need the storm! Looking less amped...but still enough time for a north trend The boundary layer will be an issue even if we get the storm up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 00z UKMET looks like it gives NYC a good bit of precipitation from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 GGEM is also S and E. Congrats S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Starting to look like a non-event. SREF's are NOT impressive whatsoever. This has a good likelihood of heading out to sea with little development south of the benchmark. Pacific is looking like crap after 144 HR as well. I suspect there will be a reloading before real cold during early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 0z GEFS is still weak but the low is further northwest than the op run. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 00z UKMET looks vastly different from the GGEM and the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 EC still has it, but nudged it south and weaker... 0.37" NYC, 0.27" HPN, 0.08" SWF... BL is still pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I relize this isn't the right Queston for this page.. But does amyone have a clue what DJf are goimg to be like cold amd snow wise??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I relize this isn't the right Queston for this page.. But does amyone have a clue what DJf are goimg to be like cold amd snow wise??? Spelling fail. Wow. But the word going around is that we should get a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Wow didn't even see all those errors.. Can't stand this auto correct on this new phone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 HPC new qpf chart still giving us significant precip - half inch amounts in central NJ - they must be siding with the UK model http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Wow didn't even see all those errors.. Can't stand this auto correct on this new phone.... If you have Android get SwiftKey. It's incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 HPC new qpf chart still giving us significant precip - half inch amounts in central NJ - they must be siding with the UK model http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif The ECM model also still has a decent amount of precipitation into the area. Looked like widespread 0.4-0.5" of pcpn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 IMO those amounts will not verify - 1.2 in far eastern LI and only 1.4 at Newark ? Spread should be greater if its cold enough at the surface for eastern LI to accumulate Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 We will see but I could see those numbers verify. The models are trending southward and colder. If there is enough moisture in our area, it can result in a 1-3 inch snowfall. HPC has a strip of moderate precip in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 06z GFS is almost a bust, at best half and inch of snow here on LI if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 6z NAM was more NW than the 00z NAM, and gives the area more precipitation than the 00z NAM, but it's still a lot less than what the ECMWF/UKMET have for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 25, 2012 Author Share Posted November 25, 2012 6z NAM was more NW than the 00z NAM, and gives the area more precipitation than the 00z NAM, but it's still a lot less than what the ECMWF/UKMET have for the area. Have to go with the Euro models at this range - GFS has a habit of flattening things out to much at this range - should start correcting itself by tomorrows 12Z We are overdue for some significant precip - very little since the 7th/8th event beginning to remind me of one of the top analogs for this winter - 76/77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 12z nam looks to be slighty colder/south so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Have to go with the Euro models at this range - GFS has a habit of flattening things out to much at this range - should start correcting itself by tomorrows 12Z We are overdue for some significant precip - very little since the 7th/8th event beginning to remind me of one of the top analogs for this winter - 76/77 Looks like 12z NAM is more NW with the heaviest precipitation this run than the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 NAM is also wetter this run than the last run for places S and W of the City. Brings the .25" line into C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 This run just shows rain and snow showers for the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 This run just shows rain and snow showers for the entire area. Not necessarily. The C NJ area gets a good .25" of pcpn from this event on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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