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Approaching Thanksgiving and the Rest of November


moneypitmike

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That's a great weenie H5 pattern on the GEFS towards the end.

Scott I typed a response to your Edmunds question and of course the forum crapped out in IE10. Answer was yes the forums do a good job of listing the hidden incentives, when ready let me know and I'll point you to the right information.

Next week looks fun for most of you.

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Yeah Scooter lemme know when you go vehicle shopping. I used Edmunds and several other websites. You can even have the dealers blind bid against each for business without knowing who you are. You'll never get a better price than negotiating the price online before you ever step foot in the dealer or even talk to them. Do everything online and then when you have 2-3 dealers who are serious about earning your business and you have them as low as they will go before telling you to walk,, then and only then do you go in and sit down with them. Also never ever give them a deposit.

Jerry it's up to you but walking in with cash and an ultimatum is not the way to do it. Trust me. They'll find ways to pull the wool over your eyes. We can talk when you are ready

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Yeah Scooter lemme know when you go vehicle shopping. I used Edmunds and several other websites. You can even have the dealers blind bid against each for business without knowing who you are. You'll never get a better price than negotiating the price online before you ever step foot in the dealer or even talk to them. Do everything online and then when you have 2-3 dealers who are serious about earning your business and you have them as low as they will go before telling you to walk,, then and only then do you go in and sit down with them. Also never ever give them a deposit.

Jerry it's up to you but walking in with cash and an ultimatum is not the way to do it. Trust me. They'll find ways to pull the wool over your eyes. We can talk when you are ready

I may need you for this soon as well.

When I bought a car about 10 years ago, I used guidance from another friend - ask to see the "invoice" price of the car, Not the sticker price, and say you will pay 500.00 over that price. Some dealers are reluctant to show that price, but should if asked.

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Thanks guys. We got a decent deal I think for my Accord...it was one of those we are the lowest and not going lower deals, but I felt like it was a decent deal for the prices I saw. It's always hard when getting a used car because it will never be apples to apples as every used car is different.

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Yeah its not an ideal pattern...but it would make it colder for us beyond that range. There's a rapidly building scandanavian block toward the pole which is trying to push the Baffin Island vortex southeast.

Its the OP Euro though...the ensembles are more what I would look at beyond D7. They have a more modified versuon of that pattern. Mostly for New England its a seasonable pattern tempwise with a pesky high influencing us from the north and eventually onshore flow with that storm system offshore.

Some encouraging signs on the tail end of the GFS ensemble mean as well...it looks like the long range guidance is starting to hint pretty strongly at some changes to the large scale pattern by Thanksgiving.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f372.gif

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Some encouraging signs on the tail end of the GFS ensemble mean as well...it looks like the long range guidance is starting to hint pretty strongly at some changes to the large scale pattern by Thanksgiving.

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f372.gif

That dip off of Alaska is a wee bit concerning. I imagine a number of the GFS ensemble members have a pretty big GOA vortex.

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If you blend the euro and gefs, it's a pretty good pattern. Even if the euro ensembles are more right than wrong..I'd take it. I think the biggest issue is not which suite is right or wrong, but the timing of these changes. Will they be pushed back or look to be on target? I honestly don't see signs of a push back on either suite...if anything the euro ensembles improved over the last two days.

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How is it that we've given up late Feb and March for late Novie and Dec.

I don't know...but how many times was I pumped up for February vacation when I was younger.

I guess if you looked back in the 50s and 60s, we did have some good Decembers. So just the ebb and flow of cycles...but give me February anytime.

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If you blend the euro and gefs, it's a pretty good pattern. Even if the euro ensembles are more right than wrong..I'd take it. I think the biggest issue is not which suite is right or wrong, but the timing of these changes. Will they be pushed back or look to be on target? I honestly don't see signs of a push back on either suite...if anything the euro ensembles improved over the last two days.

Are the euro ensembles showing more cold and snow potentials toward the end of the run?

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That dip off of Alaska is a wee bit concerning. I imagine a number of the GFS ensemble members have a pretty big GOA vortex.

As much as the goa low can be a death wish to winter patterns around here at times -- its not too terrible to have it where the GEFS are signaling it might be (if it has to be there at all, lol). That still allows room for some amplification of the ridge on the west coast into British/Columbia and Western Canada. Also good to see the signal for more blocking over Greenland and extending to the Davis Straight.

We made it through a decent majority of 10-11 with a GOA low in a similar position-- having it there definitely magnifies the need for blocking though if you want to get a wintry pattern a month from now in a similar setup.

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As much as the goa low can be a death wish to winter patterns around here at times -- its not too terrible to have it where the GEFS are signaling it might be (if it has to be there at all, lol). That still allows room for some amplification of the ridge on the west coast into British/Columbia and Western Canada. Also good to see the signal for more blocking over Greenland and extending to the Davis Straight.

We made it through a decent majority of 10-11 with a GOA low in a similar position-- having it there definitely magnifies the need for blocking though if you want to get a wintry pattern a month from now in a similar setup.

Oh no doubt. A GOA low like that would be fine. PNA neutral is fine as long as we have some nice downstream blocking.

Early in the season it may be tough to get much snow with an unfavorable Pacific... but the blocking is great to see. I'll take it.

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If the GOA is oriented properly, it can pop a weak ridge in western Canada like the GEFS have...but you obviously rather just see a ridge. Food for thought in case that is the hand that's dealt.

Yeah with a 15 day forecast ensemble mean I'm guessing some have a big trough others have a weak ridging.

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