usedtobe Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 writing's on the wall. snowy winter casts are gonna bust. despite thinking early december looks bad the strongly negative ao suggest the ao will probably average in the negative range for the next 2 months and I doubt the pna stays negative through that entire period so I think there is potential for us to get more than the median. I wouldn't yet pull the trigger on such a forecast but think the probability has gone up since my post of the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I always thought we would be backloaded, but maybe Dec 15-30 could be decent... I think the AO will be negative more than positive so we'll eventually get the pos pna, neg ao and neg epo look we want sometime in later in Dec or in Jan. I also think this might be one of those years where we get a 5.5" inch or greater event but.....that could be wishful, weenie thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I always thought we would be backloaded, but maybe Dec 15-30 could be decent... I'm just being disagreeable. I can't even forecast low temps 24 hours out correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 I'm just being disagreeable. I can't even forecast low temps 24 hours out correctly. How come you have a pro forecaster tag then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 How come you have a pro forecaster tag then . pro forecasters are the lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 pro forecasters are the lol I like the old Ian better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 1st measurable snow event 12/12-12/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 1st measurable snow event 12/12-12/16 GFS ensembles look decent in the long-range as far as 500mb pattern. Has a bit of a ridge out west and puts us in a trough along with a strong -AO and -NAO. Is it that sort of pattern evolution you're riding? Adam (am19psu) and HM seem to like this general period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 1st measurable snow event 12/12-12/16 Pretty much on the same page. Maybe a tad later? After a bit of a rough start to Dec I'm thinking the pattern goes favorable in noticeable steps with one of them having decent vort track below us as a ridge builds out west and then potentially a clipperish event after that. A slightly educated guess at best. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 GFS ensembles look decent in the long-range as far as 500mb pattern. Has a bit of a ridge out west and puts us in a trough along with a strong -AO and -NAO. Is it that sort of pattern evolution you're riding? Adam (am19psu) and HM seem to like this general period as well. yes...but it is just a WAG for fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I would agree Zwyts... EURO ensemble mean 2m temps looked atrocious first week of December per Maue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I would agree Zwyts... EURO ensemble mean 2m temps looked atrocious first week of December per Maue Pretty sure most people are talking about the 2nd and third week of DEC......pretty sure we all know its going to be above normal the 1st week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The big bowling ball in the pac is a perfect example of how a -ao can be rendered ineffective. This loops pretty much sums it up: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M The PNA has been negative sine the first week of Nov and looks to remain that way for another week or two. The good thing is that even though the pac sucks it's not "locked in". When it reshuffles a bit we'll have a much better idea of where we are going in Dec. A warm (and dry) start is all but a lock thanks to a crapacific. Edit: Just wanted to add that the gfs is hinting at a nice ridge centered just off the socal coast in fantasy range. Nice look. Chilly in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The big bowling ball in the pac is a perfect example of how a -ao can be rendered ineffective. This loops pretty much sums it up: http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M The PNA has been negative sine the first week of Nov and looks to remain that way for another week or two. The good thing is that even though the pac sucks it's not "locked in". When it reshuffles a bit we'll have a much better idea of where we are going in Dec. A warm (and dry) start is all but a lock thanks to a crapacific. Edit: Just wanted to add that the gfs is hinting at a nice ridge centered just off the socal coast in fantasy range. Nice look. Chilly in these parts. I'm kind of not worried about the PAC as long as it is not hostile which it doesn't look to be this winter...A ridge over the Aleutians has been our mean winter pattern since 2004....In our outlook I probably overestimate the importance of having a trough out there....I am not sure it matters that much....The AO/NAO will be even more important than usual.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I'm kind of not worried about the PAC as long as it is not hostile which it doesn't look to be this winter...A ridge over the Aleutians has been our mean winter pattern since 2004....In our outlook I probably overestimate the importance of having a trough out there....I am not sure it matters that much....The AO/NAO will be even more important than usual.... You definitely know the pac a heck of a lot better than I do. I'm still working on understanding the various patterns and how it affects the sensible wx downstream. I think the PNA may be more important than usual too. If the stj doesn't do anything we are going to need the amplified pattern to get any decent sized snows. I have done zero research but I have to assume that NS vorts cannot produce large (5"+) storms with a +pna. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS2 model weekly forecasts are really warm for the 1st two weeks of Dec especially the 1st week and then moderate and become cooler than normal by week 4. The good news is they are not particularly skillful though all the models look pretty warm during the 1st week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS2 model weekly forecasts are really warm for the 1st two weeks of Dec especially the 1st week and then moderate and become cooler than normal by week 4. The good news is they are not particularly skillful though all the models look pretty warm during the 1st week of the month. Shorts on Dec 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 You definitely know the pac a heck of a lot better than I do. I'm still working on understanding the various patterns and how it affects the sensible wx downstream. I think the PNA may be more important than usual too. If the stj doesn't do anything we are going to need the amplified pattern to get any decent sized snows. I have done zero research but I have to assume that NS vorts cannot produce large (5"+) storms with a +pna. I could be wrong. we are going to have to time those PNA spikes...we even had them last winter...but the raging pac jet made them futile...we should be able to capitalize more this winter....lol at 2011/2006 decembers and their +PNA's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Shorts on Dec 5? Who knows. I never make guesses about temps for a individual day so far out there in time. Does look like a warmer than normal period, also drier than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Who knows. I never make guesses about temps for a individual day so far out there in time. Does look like a warmer than normal period, also drier than normal. good...Dec 1-15 is a bad time to waste a cold pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Who knows. I never make guesses about temps for a individual day so far out there in time. Does look like a warmer than normal period, also drier than normal. I haven't looked much myself and it probably doesn't matter but we're into a decent dry streak now.. any reason to think that rolls through winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 good...Dec 1-15 is a bad time to waste a cold pattern I'm not certain how long the above normal will last in the 2nd week. The CFS2 likes it but we do have a neg Ao which may exert some influence especially as we roll forward. Don Sutherland has nice seasonal snowfall stats for snowfall when the AO tanks like it is forecast to do. we average over 20 with a median of 17. Both about 5" more than a typical year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I haven't looked much myself and it probably doesn't matter but we're into a decent dry streak now.. any reason to think that rolls through winter? I don't think it will with the ao tanking that eventually should get the jet farther south giving us a few events where we tap the gulf. Of course that may have to wait until the pacific gets a little less hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 12z Euro has a megatorch next Sunday-Wednesday.....highs in the 60s....near 70 at least 1 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 12z Euro has a megatorch next Sunday-Wednesday.....highs in the 60s....near 70 at least 1 day I haven't looked at the panels but it doesn't surprise me. The GFS totally had the look of pumping up a ridge (and possibly a big one) in the east half of the country next week before pushing a pretty big ec trough down. I think we all know how this would work out if that kind of ridge builds. Expect it to take longer than modeled to break down. And that's fine too. Just don't do it again during the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Both GFS and Euro ensembles have a pattern that looks to be developing well for us in the long range, similar to what we're looking for/expecting. Bering straight ridge retrogrades just a bit toward Siberia, which allows a trough north of HI and then pumps the PNA ridge up along the west coast. AO looks quite negative and the NAO is also negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 WxUSAF, do you have those kind of maps for the setup for Snowmageddon or the Dec. '09 storm, or know where I can find them? I've got the model runs archived but I'm curious if there is a way to find those maps for those events to compare. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 WxUSAF, do you have those kind of maps for the setup for Snowmageddon or the Dec. '09 storm, or know where I can find them? I've got the model runs archived but I'm curious if there is a way to find those maps for those events to compare. Thanks. I use this site all the time. It's shows actual conditions and not progs though. Is that what you are looking for or are you looking for the various solutions leading up to the events? I don't think there is a site for pulling old runs. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I use this site all the time. It's shows actual conditions and not progs though. Is that what you are looking for or are you looking for the various solutions leading up to the events? I don't think there is a site for pulling old runs. http://www.esrl.noaa...composites/day/ Yeah, this is awesome! Thanks, exactly what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yeah, this is awesome! Thanks, exactly what I was looking for. Excellent. I love that site. I've wasted plenty of hours pulling maps. Data is available for as recent as a couple of days ago can be accessed. Another great feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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