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Historic Sandy Oct 26th - 31st, SE hybrid obs/disco thread....

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

12Z WSI RPM shows a much farther south landfall, accumulating snow in the NC Piedmont and the north GA mtns, 2 feet of snow NC mtns. This the TV model.....(12KM WRF)

Hey Cheez, how much weight do you give to the in house WSI? It seems to have done just OK last year. I know Brandon mentioned that the models could have a hard time with the phase and if interacts early there would be some surprises. Is that what the WSI is seeing and what can us novices look for in real time to signal it could be coming further south?

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Clap clap clap. Anything further south just wraps everything else further south. I would love to have snow that close to mby.

Last several model runs have done away with that wide sweep out into the Atlantic which keeps the landfall further south. Perhaps it will trend further.

This would be awesome, several of us down here in the east are considering heading to Kitty Hawk tomorrow and I need it 100 miles closer would like to see some hurricane force gust if I am going to head out there.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

12Z nam equals wow for snow in wv and good stuff for nc high country. I think a foot is very possible in areas like beech mtn.

I would not be surprised to see winter storm watches go up for the high country of wnc.

The totals for the WV mountains the last number of runs are insane with anywhere from 2 to 3 feet on the nam and gfs. Regardless of which model is right that is crazy crazy stuff. As for nc, I agree with you. I think given the very strong upslope flow combined with moisture rapping around and the shortwave, it's hard to believe there won't be warning criteria snow down to some rather low levels.

Wow. That would catch a lot of folks off guard I'm just happy to see a flizzard if possible.

Sent from my EVO 2

Yep. How is the leaves up there right now? This would be a heavy wet snow most likely and you combine that with the very high winds, I can't imagine there wouldn't be a lot of trees down and power outages. I hope WV and the mountains of far western va have lost a lot of their leaves because they are going to be "destroyed" if the models are close to being right due what I mentioned.

Wow, 12z gfs landfall at 936mb in jersey.

Haven't checked on other sites but I see it in the 940s at least on plymouth while the nam is showing it in the 955 to 958 mb range or so. Regardless, that is insane to say the least. This will put the Perfect storm to shame if true. It's lowest pressure was 972 mb...and this could be 20 to 35mb deeper. Not to mention the expected track which will likely devastate the NY city/long island area with flooding. I've seen those shows on the discovery channel about how a storm taking a track like this would be so awful and it seems we are on the cusp of seeing it.

I'm really surprised, to be honest, to see such a drop in pressure already. Even though it's purely tropical at the moment, I didn't expect it..nor did anyone else I don't think. So it's already well on it's way to those extreme pressures being advertised by the models, which at first I thought were likely too low..but now...I think it's a real possibility obviously.

I wish this storm would effect Ga more but soak this in because this will be history in the making.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

speaking of winds, check out elkins wv...63 knots at 850mb (which is 3600 feet given the low pressure)

Date: 66 hour AVN valid 6Z TUE 30 OCT 12
Station: KEKN
Latitude: 38.88
Longitude: -79.85
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0 1000 -141
1 950 278
2 900 715
SFC 898 733 0.6 0.3 98 0.3 0.4 283 22 282.3 283.0 278.8 294.4 4.34
4 850 1174 -0.5 -0.8 98 0.3 -0.6 307 63 285.6 286.4 280.3 297.7 4.25
5 800 1659 -0.7 -1.2 96 0.6 -0.9 323 77 290.4 291.2 282.6 303.1 4.36
6 750 2174 -1.6 -2.4 94 0.8 -2.0 331 78 294.9 295.6 284.4 307.4 4.27
7 700 2722 -3.3 -4.1 94 0.8 -3.7 334 75 298.8 299.5 285.7 310.9 4.03
8 650 3308 -4.5 -5.4 93 0.9 -4.9 337 66 303.9 304.6 287.4 316.0 3.94
9 600 3937 -6.0 -6.8 94 0.8 -6.4 341 55 309.1 309.8 289.1 321.1 3.83
10 550 4616 -8.3 -8.8 97 0.5 -8.5 348 47 314.2 314.9 290.5 325.8 3.59
11 500 5352 -11.1 -11.3 99 0.2 -11.2 357 40 319.5 320.1 291.7 330.0 3.22
12 450 6157 -14.3 -14.4 99 0.2 -14.3 7 36 325.3 325.8 293.0 334.7 2.78
13 400 7044 -18.2 -18.2 99 0.1 -18.2 20 33 331.4 331.8 294.1 339.3 2.27
14 350 8032 -23.1 -23.1 100 0.0 -23.1 38 41 337.6 338.0 295.2 343.8 1.70
15 300 9145 -30.6 -30.8 98 0.2 -30.6 51 44 342.2 342.4 295.7 345.9 0.98
16 250 10411 -40.9 -41.3 96 0.4 -40.9 70 41 345.3 345.4 296.0 346.9 0.41
17 200 11895 -51.0 -51.2 98 0.1 -51.0 108 32 352.0 352.0 297.2 352.7 0.17
18 150 13745 -56.4 -70.7 15 14.2 -56.7 102 20 372.8 372.8 301.1 372.9 0.02
19 100 16288 -60.3 -78.2 8 17.8 -60.6 149 21 411.2 411.2 306.6 411.2 0.01

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Yep. How is the leaves up there right now? This would be a heavy wet snow most likely and you combine that with the very high winds, I can't imagine there wouldn't be a lot of trees down and power outages. I hope WV and the mountains of far western va have lost a lot of their leaves because they are going to be "destroyed" if the models are close to being right due what I mentioned.

Actually today has done a good job of stripping a lot of the leaves off with the breeze that we have...but it would still be a pretty big issue as most trees have atleast 70% or more coverage. Given it would be a heavy wet snow and my house is surrounded by trees (thankfully older mature ones) it might literally be a huge issue in MBY if that were to verify.

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Rob

Rob

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Posted

I am going to Gatlinburg tomorrow and preparing to hike the summit of Mt Leconte. With a summit of 6594ft I have witnessed snow conditions change rapidly around 4500-5000ft, Snow at lower elevation can really make it impossible to get to the trail heads so sometimes higher elevation snows are a treat .I went for the first snow of the season several years ago, I hiked from a dusting of snow up to a foot at the summit. Around 850mb the snowline really picked up and there was 8" by 5000ft. I am worried about limited moisture despite enhanced upslope and decent 850mb moisture.

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WilkesboroDude

WilkesboroDude

Posted
Posted

I am going to Gatlinburg tomorrow and preparing to hike the summit of Mt Leconte. With a summit of 6594ft I have witnessed snow conditions change rapidly around 4500-5000ft, Snow at lower elevation can really make it impossible to get to the trail heads so sometimes higher elevation snows are a treat .I went for the first snow of the season several years ago, I hiked from a dusting of snow up to a foot at the summit. Around 850mb the snowline really picked up and there was 8" by 5000ft. I am worried about limited moisture despite enhanced upslope and decent 850mb moisture.

Won't be a pretty sight. Visibility will suck. Don't get blown away.

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