winterwarlock Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 With long range models showing a bigtime warmth possible next week starting with a quick warm up on Sunday after a possible frost/freeze late Friday night and Saturday morning, looks like we could be enjoying some Indian Summer next week. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sound+of+crickets&mid=F57AA3C479F287757FD7F57AA3C479F287757FD7&view=detail&FORM=VIRE3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 http://www.bing.com/...tail&FORM=VIRE3 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 http://www.bing.com/...tail&FORM=VIRE3 Haha, funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 With long range models showing a bigtime warmth possible next week starting with a quick warm up on Sunday after a possible frost/freeze late Friday night and Saturday morning, looks like we could be enjoying some Indian Summer next week. Discuss. We could use one. I miss summer already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Indian summer warmth doesn't happen unless we've seen freezing temperatures in the morning, which is possible for some areas Saturday morning although I'm betting most of the tristate misses out. So the warmth is basically a continuation of the never ending warmth we've experienced for nearly 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 how high can we go....Mt Holly has me for 71, 73 and 75 Sunday thru Tuesday. Do we have a shot at 80...hit 81 last Friday so wouldn't be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 With long range models showing a bigtime warmth possible next week starting with a quick warm up on Sunday after a possible frost/freeze late Friday night and Saturday morning, looks like we could be enjoying some Indian Summer next week. Discuss. Can you post the models that are showing this? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It might get to 75 on Monday, but the warmth looks to be a bit above normal. Definitely not an Indian summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The warmth is not that impressive and only for a few days. Outside of the usual hotspots most won't get much above 70 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 how high can we go....Mt Holly has me for 71, 73 and 75 Sunday thru Tuesday. Do we have a shot at 80...hit 81 last Friday so wouldn't be surprised Low to mid 70's in mid October... shocking! When will the insanity end???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The 00z GEFS have a weak transient ridge at 500 mb that will give us a couple 5-10 Degree above normal days on Sunday and Monday, and should be gone by either Tuesday or Wednesday. Not a very impressive outlook at 500 mb for those wanting some serious warmth. A trough moves in right after this ridge, and a -NAO/-EPO looks to develop after that. This is a pretty strong signal for a -NAO/-EPO to form, considering that this is 10 days out, and we have 24-36 dm height anomalies associated with the positive anomalies in Greenland and into Alaska. After this brief mild spell, it does not look like a very warm pattern by any means on the 00z GEFS. Hour 144 showing the trough moving in after the brief mild spell: The -NAO/-EPO in full swing at hour 228. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 it's not unusual to get into the 70's in mid October...We will probably get a few more warm days...It could linger into November like some other years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Im just hoping and praying we dont get that alaskan "kiss of death" vortex again parked there for entire winter like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Im just hoping and praying we dont get that alaskan "kiss of death" vortex again parked there for entire winter like last year. What a stubborn feature. Amazing how it doesn't waver for months on end sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I don't think we can really use that definition anymore. So many areas don't get to the freezing mark until well into November or even December now. I think if the cities drop below 40 and the outlying areas get frost or near freezing and then we have temps 10 above normal for at least 2 days that would qualify. Right now average highs are in the mid and upper 60s so we'd have to hit at least 76-78, preferably 80. Then again alot of people consider 90 a heat wave in July. Indian summer warmth doesn't happen unless we've seen freezing temperatures in the morning, which is possible for some areas Saturday morning although I'm betting most of the tristate misses out. So the warmth is basically a continuation of the never ending warmth we've experienced for nearly 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I don't think we can really use that definition anymore. So many areas don't get to the freezing mark until well into November or even December now. I think if the cities drop below 40 and the outlying areas get frost or near freezing and then we have temps 10 above normal for at least 2 days that would qualify. Right now average highs are in the mid and upper 60s so we'd have to hit at least 76-78, preferably 80. Then again alot of people consider 90 a heat wave in July. Maybe the immediate city, but majority of folks see 32F before November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The 00z GEFS have a weak transient ridge at 500 mb that will give us a couple 5-10 Degree above normal days on Sunday and Monday, and should be gone by either Tuesday or Wednesday. Not a very impressive outlook at 500 mb for those wanting some serious warmth. A trough moves in right after this ridge, and a -NAO/-EPO looks to develop after that. This is a pretty strong signal for a -NAO/-EPO to form, considering that this is 10 days out, and we have 24-36 dm height anomalies associated with the positive anomalies in Greenland and into Alaska. After this brief mild spell, it does not look like a very warm pattern by any means on the 00z GEFS. Hour 144 showing the trough moving in after the brief mild spell: The -NAO/-EPO in full swing at hour 228. we're not going to get that cold if the mean trof stays to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 real Indian Summer is a warm spell after the first freeze with colors at their peak...1974 and 1975 had real indian Summers...In 1974 NYC had three morning in a row with freezing or below temperatures...November 1st was 81 degrees and the return of bugs...1975 had a 32 degree day the end of October and a 78 degree day the first week of November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Im just hoping and praying we dont get that alaskan "kiss of death" vortex again parked there for entire winter like last year. Ever since Feb 2011, weve had to deal with that monster. Maybe we should all move to alaska, Fort Yukon nearly broke the record for coldest US temp last year and Anchorage had their snowiest winter on record. Meanwhile the rest of us had to deal with an epic torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 we're not going to get that cold if the mean trof stays to our west The GFS keeps insisting on getting colder in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 the ensemble mean has us normal to above days 6 through 14 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2_12z/tloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 the ensemble mean has us normal to above days 6 through 14 http://www.meteo.psu..._12z/tloop.html The departures have us only at above normal for days 5 and 8 in a 15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 The departures have us only at above normal for days 5 and 8 in a 15 day period. every day on the mean from 6-11 is +3f or greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 It doesn't look like a cold pattern with the unfavorable trough axis despite the Greenland ridging with a -NAO, -EPO and a -PNA as well, but I'm not quite buying a persistently warm pattern either. There's the Sunday-Monday surge of warmth which is followed by cooler temperatures, and although that weak trough isn't sustained, there doesn't look to be any sustained ridge building into the region behind it. My guess for this time period is at least slightly warmer than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 every day on the mean from 6-11 is +3f or greater Are we looking at two different maps? Only Day 8 is 3-6 Degrees F warmer than normal for NJ on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Mt. Holly has cooled the temperatures for this "warm spell" quite significantly. Now the temperatures IMBY don't even reach 70. The warmest it now gets on their forecast is 69 Degrees on Monday. They have cooled Tuesday's forecasted high by over ten degrees IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 i must have had an old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 i must have had an old run Is that Anthony's snowman in your avatar...... ...why is he dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 Indian summer warmth doesn't happen unless we've seen freezing temperatures in the morning, which is possible for some areas Saturday morning although I'm betting most of the tristate misses out. So the warmth is basically a continuation of the never ending warmth we've experienced for nearly 2 years. Well most of the area, except the core inner cities, got the freeze. Maybe not so much warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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