Rainshadow Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 SP - great answer... haha. I think the NWS has this forecast as well as you can given the aforementioned uncertainty. Well with the cold pool lingering and a lake effect trajectory for days, would think the Poconos would do ok even without a back end change thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Probably catch some lake effect flurries down this way Friday-Saturday that survive over the mountains I would think. It beats 50 and fog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What do you guys make of this? Not much, and usually doesn't work out, but back end snow in the LV/Poconos very late Thursday night/early Friday on consecutive GFS runs... Show me hour 93. Remember, the QPF is for the PREVIOUS 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Show me hour 93. Remember, the QPF is for the PREVIOUS 6 hours. dry is your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 DT is honking for the 26-27th time frame. Pretty decent write up with his argument. Check it out on his fb page or wherever. (Now has been paid 5$ for advertising) ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well with the cold pool lingering and a lake effect trajectory for days, would think the Poconos would do ok even without a back end change thursday night. I hope so. I saw the winds over the weekend and thought hmmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 DT is honking for the 26-27th time frame. Pretty decent write up with his argument. Check it out on his fb page or wherever. (Now has been paid 5$ for advertising) ;-) It will be interesting to see if that "general rule" about rex blocks holds up as he's forecasting () it to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 totally disagree about the last 2 guys...... DT I guess I can give a pass to. Steve D. is a joke, though. Not going to go any further than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 totally disagree about the last 2 guys...... DT I guess I can give a pass to, although the way he often conducts himself is a real no-no. Steve D. is a joke, though. Not going to go any further than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Can we keep this med-long range talk.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Which is worse, the long range or the mod in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Which is worse, the long range or the mod in this thread? Whoa.. No need to bash. We can do a little self moderation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Can we keep this med-long range talk.... doing some "self mod" now......but am excited about DT's explanation of the rexblock and possible storm on the 26th/27th......Rob G is hinting at that time frame too for the MA (http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=4331&topicid=15045&Itemid=179) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 00z GFS looks much colder in this area for 26/27 storm so far. Cold air much better entrenched in NE at hr 168. Primary weaker. edit: still cuts to midwest but further SE than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 0z GEFS has a Miller B signal around D8, showing that, despite several op GFS and op Euro runs honking the full-on Lakes Cutter, perhaps some hope remains. The individual members are only out to 54 on Allan's site right now, but it will be interesting to see what they show. The overall idea though is that with a persistent -PNA, a Miller A is off the table at this point (not that it necessarily was on the table at any recent point, but nonetheless...). With a pretty persistent signal for a -NAO/-AO in the period along with this -PNA, the door remains open for a Miller B. I wouldn't say the pattern favors it over a full-blown Lakes Cutter, but at least the door is open. Edit: Yes I know it's bad to talk about track from ensemble means and disregard things you don't like, like how 850 temps would be marginal at best. But I'm just as snow-starved as you fools at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The Canadian has some sort of energy transfer from a 995 mb Low on the TN/KY border to a 986 mb Low over DC that strengthens as it rides right up the I-95 corridor. Verbatim would probably be rain to snow with some light accumulations on the back end for the cities. Not that we're worried about that at this point, but it's just nice to see at least one model that doesn't keep the primary in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro op is rain as the primary goes through Chicago with the 26th-27th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro op is rain as the primary goes through Chicago with the 26th-27th storm. Ensemble mean goes from an open wave over MS at 192 to a weak-ish signal over Nova Scotia 24 hours later. Who knows what happens in between on the various solutions, but the quickness that it gets north makes me think that there is some other solution on the table besides a GLC primary running into an Arctic block, because if it was, it wouldn't get east that fast. God I'm grasping at straws... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Ensemble mean goes from an open wave over MS at 192 to a weak-ish signal over Nova Scotia 24 hours later. Who knows what happens in between on the various solutions, but the quickness that it gets north makes me think that there is some other solution on the table besides a GLC primary running into an Arctic block, because if it was, it wouldn't get east that fast. God I'm grasping at straws... at 216 the mean has a very elongated mess of low pressure from Ohio to VA. Looks like the mean is split between a Lakes track and a coastal (or perhaps Miller B setup). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Which is worse, the long range or the mod in this thread? Geez, really? There's a reason why I started a poll on this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 This is a probably a situation where the ensemble means for the 26'th are too far SE and too cold. The OP runs consistently show strong trough amplification in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 This is a probably a situation where the ensemble means for the 26'th are too far SE and too cold. The OP runs consistently show strong trough amplification in the SW Not saying one is right or the other...but when you are 192 hrs out i would think the ens mean is prob a little more reliable than an op run. I can easily see this storm going under us just as easily as it going west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0Z GGEM screaming Miller B due to blocking at high latitudes: HP in a great spoot as well. Shame it's 9 days away ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Don't get bent out of shape over run to run details. Things can and will change. I remember that the Boxing Day storm was initially modeled to slide through the TN Valley and then OTS off the Mid-Atlantic coast. We all know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 0Z GGEM screaming Miller B due to blocking at high latitudes: HP in a great spoot as well. Shame it's 9 days away ! that high in my opinion is to far nw...you want it just above vt/nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 that high in my opinion is to far nw...you want it just above vt/nh The fact it is showing up is critical. We can hatch out details later, we have 9 days to do that. Quasi 50-50 low in place as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 What's up with the wishcasting in here today? What are your thoughts? I can see this going under us if that high and block is correct. I can also see it going well west if it really phaes in the northern stream and connects the se ridge with the block. The -pna is the kiss of death for snow. Til that gets out of here chances of snow are very low unless and uber block forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What are your thoughts? I can see this going under us if that high and block is correct. I can also see it going well west if it really phaes in the northern stream and connects the se ridge with the block. The -pna is the kiss of death for snow. Til that gets out of here chances of snow are very low unless and uber block forms. I'm not Adam, but IMO it is predicated on if the block verifies as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 What are your thoughts? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/hovsdetmjo/7.5S_7.5N/2012.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 http://www.atmos.alb...S_7.5N/2012.png For us who are a little bit more "weather" challenged could you spell it out? I'm assuming though it's probably not good if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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