Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well looks like the MJO is still outlooked to get to Phase 1, not the best, but not the worst either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well looks like the MJO is still outlooked to get to Phase 1, not the best, but not the worst either. Modeled MJO PS diagrams are out of sync with the stat guidance from both Roundy and the Aussies. I wouldn't trust their results (and therefore, the long range outlooks, either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Modeled MJO PS diagrams are out of sync with the stat guidance from both Roundy and the Aussies. I wouldn't trust their results (and therefore, the long range outlooks, either). Wasn't Roundy phase 8 toward the end of the month? The correlation coefficient with P1 is kind of poor for us even under more synchronized scenarios, all looks kind of meh by me. Even when I lived in NYC it didn't seem like winter "started" until the last week of December anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 That's exactly what I don't get. Around our area; Mt. Holly area, winter never really, REALLY picked up until last week of Dec. / early January and went through begining - mid March. To the many people expecting record breaking snows in Nov / Dec. have been and are going to be disappointed. Yea, we may escape with one or two storms (see 12/2005) but honestly - this general time frame isn't prime, ripe for our snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 That's exactly what I don't get. Around our area; Mt. Holly area, winter never really, REALLY picked up until last week of Dec. / early January and went through begining - mid March. To the many people expecting record breaking snows in Nov / Dec. have been and are going to be disappointed. Yea, we may escape with one or two storms (see 12/2005) but honestly - this general time frame isn't prime, ripe for our snows. At PHL, the 1981-2010 average date of the first daily snowfall of 1" or more is December 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 DT says it will be a cold, snowy January... maybe some relaxation in February: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 DT with a pot of gold for january lol but the 80's winter concern me snow wise, don't think much snow in 80 and 85 just cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 DT with a pot of gold for january lol but the 80's winter concern me snow wise, don't think much snow in 80 and 85 just cold No you're right, snow may be moderate, but the cold appears to be coming... 1980 was decidedly the worst of the analog years. Jan 1971 PHL Temp 27.8, Snow 7.7 ABE Temp 22.0, Snow 11.2 ACY Temp 28.8, Snow 7.2 Jan 1980 PHL Temp 31.7, Snow 6.1 ABE Temp 30.6, Snow 1.0 ACY Temp 30.8, Snow 6.3 Jan 1985 PHL Temp 27.3, Snow 11.9 ABE Temp 24.9, Snow 6.7 ACY Temp 26.7, Snow 15.1 Jan 2004 PHL Temp 26.1, Snow 7.6 ABE Temp 22.0, Snow 16.2 ACY Temp 26.8, Snow 7.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 so gfs wants it to snow sunday and euro doesn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 so gfs wants it to snow sunday and euro doesn't? gfs isn't snow, its mainly rain...might be a brief period of some frozen, but its mainly rain south of the pocs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 All you can ask for right now is that their will be a heck of a lot of storm chances in the next 2 weeks. The next thing is to try and get some cold air into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 gfs isn't snow, its mainly rain...might be a brief period of some frozen, but its mainly rain south of the pocs. thats why ur the should be met and i just need snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I personally think theres not much of a chance for snow in the city in the next 10 days. I do think that day 8-10 storm showing up on GFS/EURO has legs. Youd figure the semi block we have would manufacture some kind of a big storm...Just not much cold air to play with. The Euro even bombs the day 6-7 storm out yet theres still not cold enough temps laid down. I do see a nice pattern change in the long range which could mean we switch to having a cold-snow pattern by January 1st. My semi-educated opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 I personally think theres not much of a chance for snow in the city in the next 10 days. I do think that day 8-10 storm showing up on GFS/EURO has legs. Youd figure the semi block we have would manufacture some kind of a big storm...Just not much cold air to play with. The Euro even bombs the day 6-7 storm out yet theres still not cold enough temps laid down. I do see a nice pattern change in the long range which could mean we switch to having a cold-snow pattern by January 1st. My semi-educated opinion. IMHO, its not a lack of cold air, its the wind flow that causes it. If we had winds that usher in colder air then it would be colder. You can't get a snow storm on southerly winds. Look at the source region for southerly winds, its warm air. If the areas that i circled wind direction was from the n or ne, those temperatures would be colder. You also notice from this once the winds shift to that direction it cools off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 IMHO, its not a lack of cold air, its the wind flow that causes it. If we had winds that usher in colder air then it would be colder. You can't get a snow storm on southerly winds. Look at the source region for southerly winds, its warm air. If the areas that i circled wind direction was from the n or ne, those temperatures would be colder. You also notice from this once the winds shift to that direction it cools off. And the wrong-direction, warm winds are driven by the fact that the pattern has the storm centers pass to our west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 And the wrong-direction, warm winds are driven by the fact that the pattern has the storm centers pass to our west? yes or to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Nice blocking signal on 8-10 day outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS mega storm on the 19th, only marginal cold air to work with yet suppressed like the 2010 analog, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Both winter events so far this year trended colder as it got closer...if a storm took the verbatim track on GFS someone would get clobbered...We need the preceding low to become strong so we get a pseudo 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Both winter events so far this year trended colder as it got closer...if a storm took the verbatim track on GFS someone would get clobbered...We need the preceding low to become strong so we get a pseudo 50/50. yes as shown the same people who got crushed in the christmas storm 2010 would again, with a similar rapid qpf gradient decline going north. 50/50 shunts storm eastward. All that can be taken from this is there is a large storm signal showing up for the 19th received 10" locally from that weeks storm, sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I am really liking the potential for the 19th weather it be rain or snow I think it will very soon become a storm we can nail down well in advance. the signal just keeps showing up. Probably will see the euro come in play soon Providing it looses the cutting off it does with the energy out west for the storm. Should be interesting runs ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Better cold pattern been showing in the long range as well, stress level dropping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 What a run on the GFS. Jesus Christ. So much for a warm up. Vodka cold verbatim that run. Oh yea, and a nice Feb 5 2010 repeat. no big deal. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 before ppl starting gooing in their pants, just remember the gfs is the only one showing this...that should be enough to settle down some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 before ppl starting gooing in their pants, just remember the gfs is the only one showing this...that should be enough to settle down some people. reported! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 before ppl starting gooing in their pants, just remember the gfs is the only one showing this...that should be enough to settle down some people. that is why i said "as shown" lol but good signs the second half of december could be much better than the first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Hey Tombo, I totally agree with what you said on the GFS. If the Euro were to do that, then that would grab our attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Hey Tombo, I totally agree with what you said on the GFS. If the Euro were to do that, then that would grab our attention. euro 12z coming soon for reality check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Hey Tombo, I totally agree with what you said on the GFS. If the Euro were to do that, then that would grab our attention. im not saying this solution won't happen just merely saying before we really start going nuts lets get a little more model support. If people also remember a week or so ago i said the dec 10-20 period was the time to watch specifically 15-20...just glad to see a storm, if its rain or snow who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 euro 12z coming soon for reality check fwiw comparing the 12z euro from last nights run its def colder and is actually a snow storm for new england states...so the trend in the models is to definitely see that block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.