Harbourton Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z GFS pops a nice west coast ridge D8. Period just before xmas has some potential. Agree totally Chubbs. I really think we need the west coast ridge to fire the storm track and cold air. PNA WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Strongly agree. Without that west coast ridge it's been progressive city in regards to any systems traversing the nation. Pop a ridge out West and carve a trof in the East and things shound, in theory, become more favorable for stormy and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The Euro and its ensembles keep honking at something potentially good for us around the 22nd. Miller Bish signal it seems so we need to hope for the best there. At least the cold will be here by then. Looks like the trough axis is still a bit too far east for optimal results here but obviously that can change. PNA will be rising just prior to that timeframe so hopefully everything works out....even a few inches on the ground would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12Z EC has an interesting trough diving into the Plains at the end of its run... there's potential with that if it can round the bend and develop something. The cold air will be in place, per the EC. Of course, it'll change a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So...what's the latest on next's week's systems? Are we still expecting the parade of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So...what's the latest on next's week's systems? Are we still expecting the parade of storms? Yes, but they all look warm, cutting to the north/lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Bummer...that's what I thought...still time for a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Bummer...that's what I thought...still time for a change? Not for the first two, at least. First one runs to the lakes Sunday, second on Monday. Might be some wraparound flurries on Tuesday behind the second low. Wednesday and Thursday look dry, with the third running into the lakes Thursday night/Friday. While small details differ (relatively speaking small details considering this is the medium range), overall the GFS and EC aren't that far apart and both give this same general result. Maybe the third one will end up further south, but as depicted by both the GFS and EC right now, its rain. The GFS and EC both also depict next weekend as being cold and windy with wraparound flurries possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 2 things, one good one bad.. The mjo wave that everyone was hopeful of, current forecasts have that shatting the bed. Still very weak convection in the phase 7-8. On the other hand the mtn torque has actually crept into positive territory, which may argue for some broader trofs and or ridges, but its still only weakly positive so still pretty progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 2 things, one good one bad.. The mjo wave that everyone was hopeful of, current forecasts have that shatting the bed. Still very weak convection in the phase 7-8. On the other hand the mtn torque has actually crept into positive territory, which may argue for some broader trofs and or ridges, but its still only weakly positive so still pretty progressive pattern. Tom, I suppose it could look worse. Looks like a near normal progressive looking flow. Captain obvious post: farther north, better chances. All the torquing is tropical related so am not sure (maybe Adam can comment on this on Monday) if its good or if any torquing is better than no torquing. I see the new MJO outlooks starting turning toward warmer phases in January. More of a question of consistency than accuracy, just wondering how the Euro weeklies outlook. The CFS2 weekly outlooks seem almost always cold week 4 and then warm up as we get closer. My favorite the week 2 NAEFS has been hovering around near normal last couple of days which takes us back to the captain obvious post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS still has the eye-candy December 26th fantasy storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS still has the eye-candy December 26th fantasy storm... yeah a real gfs candycane there Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z GFS looks good for the post xmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z GFS looks good for the post xmas storm 3 posts in a row about the same thing, that's cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Where's Tom to crush our dreams with his "bl is warm" post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Where's Tom to crush our dreams with his "bl is warm" post? That far out, especially since its the low res extended GFS, I wouldn't worry about it at all. The track is favorable, cold air will at least be in place to start. The GFS does warm up the surface into the mid 30s along I-95. But unlike other progged possibilities, this one has a very tight gradient because cold air is available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Tweet from JB off the new ECMWF - "major arctic outbreak occurs northern plains into the old south and east 6-10 - Electric shock watch for all metal surfaces" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Tweet from JB off the new ECMWF - "major arctic outbreak occurs northern plains into the old south and east 6-10 - Electric shock watch for all metal surfaces" Euro giveth...Euro taketh away...so much for that Arctic outbreak being major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro giveth...Euro taketh away...so much for that Arctic outbreak being major. Yeah really, and that Christmas storm ends up being warm and inland. GFS hasn't trended well with it either. Eh, who knows, who cares. Christmas back east is usually green anyway. Hoping for white is not going to lead to a win, most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm no long range guru, but man do the models like teasing us with cold outbreaks 7+ days out, only to take them away. It's been happening for weeks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 cold by and large locked over Yukon, NW BC, and Alaska through after Christmas. Long, long range GFS tries to shove a piece of this across the Lakes the weekend between Christmas and New Years but models have teased before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm no long range guru, but man do the models like teasing us with cold outbreaks 7+ days out, only to take them away. It's been happening for weeks now. Now that I posted this, it will fail. Week 2 temperature probability outlooks by the NAEFS have not given false cold promises this month. Near normal temps most likely occurrence for 12/24-12/31. The last time they were cold leaning was for the last week of November. The CFS2 weeklies in particular have been cold leaning weeks 3 and 4 only to warm as we get closer. I don't see the Euro weeklies so dont know how good or bad they have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 A mild look to last night's D10 Euro ensemble with strong Pacific flow into NA re-established. If true need to push back any pattern change to January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 A mild look to last night's D10 Euro ensemble with strong Pacific flow into NA re-established. If true need to push back any pattern change to January. The mjo having no thrust again isn't helping. Their just isn't anything to change the pattern. Need that pna to get out of the neg phase. Whenever we have that and without much blocking its a transient pattern with chances of cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro op was a toaster long range and now i see the enembles were too. It has been far from good in the long range lately here's to hoping that was one garbage run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Got to love the back and forth with models....nothing dull with this pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 "The block is coming back. While the pattern today allows the lifting of the storm northeast enough for the warmth to still attack by day 6 this is forcing the major winter storm that comes out of the plains to turn due east under the block This will draw the arctic air strongly into it as the shortwave north of the lakes charges into the vortex near the east coast Consequently the weather bell snow idea on this looks like this (see below) the big cities that have set records for non snow accumulation are about to get hammered with heavy snow and big cold coming behind, with a major lake effect outbreak to boot The 11-15 day temps continue to go into the tank and in fact preceding this period from Christmas day in the southern and central plains through the ohio valley and into the mid and north atlantic the 26th and 27th a major snowstorm that starts in the southern and central rockies comes northeast with AXIS of heaviest snows likely to be near the 1 inch line in the storm above.. the 240 hour operational shows the block is back over the prime place to push the core of winter into the states Its ensembles show no reason to doubt the more southern track and the US ensembles in the 11-15 continue to grow even colder this is in C and the cold is going to spread after this. Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Clause and we are going to have winter this year... and for the rest of the nation too" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Ahhh wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lol the SLP tracks right through Chicago. No way NW Indiana sees 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Let's see what's more right -- the GFS or the JBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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