ZackH Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Its interesting to note that the latest runs of both the NAM and GFS have the upper level trough taking on a negative tilt. On the NAM especially, there looks to be some major upper level diffluence to work with that the intensifying low should tap into. That would support pretty substantial intensification and a slowing of the system. Bufkit soundings also show some elevated CAPE present in the GFK area around the time of the change over in both the NAM and GFS. The NAM shows some pretty pronounced Theta E folding around the same time, as well (thundersnow?). If the NAM verifies (having a hard time believing it will, but its fun to play the what if game), we are looking at 15 inch accumulations at GFK with an 8:1 ratio. That being said, that is not what I'm predicting, that is just what the bare bones NAM is showing. I think we're more realistically looking at something in between the NAM and GFS and the warm surface temps will mitigate extreme totals in the GFK area. However, the heavy snowfall rates should overcome those warm surface temps and I am still thinking at this point we will be seeing 5-8 inches in Grand Forks. I know that's a bit high, but confidence is growing IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The NAM definitely had Borho excited this morning. I'm always pessimistic about these early season storms with no cold air. I'm thinking 3-5 inches in the GFK area. Nice tight temperature gradient already though, in the low 50's around Fargo, 70's in Fergus Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=48.847091161328&lon=-95.76348629560448 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://forecast.weat....76348629560448 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/textforecast_e.html?Bulletin=fpcn12.cwto for northwestern Ontario, the morning zones for kenora and red lake are hinting 5+ cms (2+ inches) by late tomorrow afternoon. It'll be interesting what these zones will say for the evening publishing, and seeing where the boys/girls at Toronto-Downsview as well as either Edmonton or Winnipeg (not sure who does the Manitoba zones these days). the Zones for Red Lake, Kenora, Ear Falls in nw Ontario and Winnipeg, Emerson/Altona, Whiteshell/Bisset, Sprague, Grand Beach, Gimli, and Portage la Prairie in Manitoba will be the ones to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 http://www.weatherof...tin=fpcn12.cwto for northwestern Ontario, the morning zones for kenora and red lake are hinting 5+ cms (2+ inches) by late tomorrow afternoon. It'll be interesting what these zones will say for the evening publishing, and seeing where the boys/girls at Toronto-Downsview as well as either Edmonton or Winnipeg (not sure who does the Manitoba zones these days). the Zones for Red Lake, Kenora, Ear Falls in nw Ontario and Winnipeg, Emerson/Altona, Whiteshell/Bisset, Sprague, Grand Beach, Gimli, and Portage la Prairie in Manitoba will be the ones to watch. EC out of WInnipeg has issued a winter storm warning for areas southeast of Winnipeg to the Ontario border, including Steinbach, Whiteshell and Sprague regions. Calling for 10-20 cm (4-8") Thursday except up to 30 cm (12") over Sprague region. http://kamala.cod.edu/Canada/latest.wwcn11.CWWG.html Forecast for Winnipeg calling for a rain/snow mix Thursday, changing to all snow in the afternoon into Thursday night with an inch or so accumulation possible. No warnings or watches yet for NW Ontario, however special weather statement calling for 3-6" of snow for regions near MB border, with up to 10" possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 I certainly think a rumble or two is possible with the snow there, I mentioned it earlier. That's one good temp gradient at 850. Seems like a nice tropopause lowering to coming right into the cyclone center further destabilizing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 330 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012 ...EARLY WINTER STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND 10 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO AREAS OF NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022-023-051500- /O.UPG.KFGF.WS.A.0003.121004T1200Z-121005T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KFGF.WS.W.0003.121004T0600Z-121005T1500Z/ ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON- RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN- SOUTH CLEARWATER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...NEWFOLDEN... RED LAKE...THIEF RIVER FALLS...RED LAKE FALLS...FOSSTON... BAGLEY...BEMIDJI...MAHNOMEN...LAKE ITASCA 330 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ON THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. * WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND BECOME 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CONTINUING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. * VISIBILITIES...MAY BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * WIND CHILL VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. * OTHER IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ON TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES MAY CAUSE THEM TO BREAK. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS... HALSTAD...HALLOCK...WARREN...CAVALIER...GRAFTON...GRAND FORKS... MAYVILLE 330 PM CDT WED OCT 3 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. * WINDS...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND BECOME 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. * VISIBILITIES...MAY BE NEAR ZERO ON THURSDAY WITHIN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * WIND CHILL VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. * OTHER IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ON TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES MAY CAUSE THEM TO BREAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The latest SREF really ramping up totals now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Even mid level instability showing up right against the arc of precip (CCB) to a rumble or two is definitely possible. Areas just over the border especially could see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 What a incredible early season storm. Because of the timing of it, while not unheard of, it is quite rare to get this kind of snows outside of the Rockies this early. There will be wide spread power outages, along with trees blocking the roads not to mention white out conditions. Look at the area of coverage that the SREF shows, (thundersnow12 posted above) now transplant that over the MSP/RST area or the Chicago/Milwaukee region, let alone the east coast and one would have to ask this question of TWC. Would this storm be named Athena? The answer IMO is a resounding yes. Will it happen? Absolutely no, because it doesn't affect a major metropolitan area. Looks to me as if the decision to name winter storms is largely based on a marketing theme. Shame on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 this looks good to me as the ECMWF has been showing this for it last three runs, the 8-!2" area IMO will have a couple of pockets approaching 15". Keep in mind that the Red River Valley of the North is as flat as a table top, with nothing to stop the winds I would expect near blizzard conditions, if not exceeding that threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The radar in Minot has that snow look to it right now, however 925 mb temperatures are still above freezing.The latest HRRR has 925 mb temperatures dropping below zero around 04z in eastern North Dakota. This is probably due to the divergence in the favorable coupled 250 mb jet region and some evaporative cooling, depending on how dry the air still is at low levels. That is probably around when the precip will change over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Going to be a literal slopfest, very wet snow as thermals will never drop below 32. Not sure the higher amounts will verify well, I still think a 2-4" general amount for GFK seems realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I agree with Baro here. It is really dry in GFK, we were upgraded to exceptional drought a few days ago and with the warm surface temps and overall dryness of the area I think it will be tough to get more than 3" even with the dynamic cooling taking place after the change over around 00Z. Personally though, I'm interested to see if we get some CSI later on this evening and tomorrow morning. Bufkit sounding for KGFK earlier showed the nose of the Theta-E advection coinciding with the diffluence at 300mb and produced around 400J/Kg, so it is certainly a possibility. Going to be a literal slopfest, very wet snow as thermals will never drop below 32. Not sure the higher amounts will verify well, I still think a 2-4" general amount for GFK seems realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I'm just saying... if the deformation band sets up like most of the models prog over GFK, there will be some crazy snowfall rates, and I believe that will cause more than enough dynamic cooling to get past the warm surface temps. IMO its all about where and if that band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 same thing happened here last october. If it comes down hard it will accumulate and quick I'm just saying... if the deformation band sets up like most of the models prog over GFK, there will be some crazy snowfall rates, and I believe that will cause more than enough dynamic cooling to get past the warm surface temps. IMO its all about where and if that band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The 1z Rap 18 hr forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 The 02z forecast... And 6 hours prior to that, notice the tight pressure gradient, is the "B" word in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 I'm just saying... if the deformation band sets up like most of the models prog over GFK, there will be some crazy snowfall rates, and I believe that will cause more than enough dynamic cooling to get past the warm surface temps. IMO its all about where and if that band sets up. Oh I agree, but I that band will likely be just a tick eastward of GFK. Roseau and Warroad areas would be possible jackpot zones. I guess I was talking about GFK proper. Also don't underestimate the Valley and the 500 ft difference. Models usually don't catch it very well, but it makes a difference on temps...especially in a situation like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Oh I agree, but I that band will likely be just a tick eastward of GFK. Roseau and Warroad areas would be possible jackpot zones. I guess I was talking about GFK proper. Also don't underestimate the Valley and the 500 ft difference. Models usually don't catch it very well, but it makes a difference on temps...especially in a situation like this. That is true... I am worried it won't pivot just right over us. However, I am probably heading out east on HWY 2 with another grad student who has a 4x4 jeep. Looking for some nice blizzard type conditions for footage. You're right, the 500 ft difference could be a problem in a close situation such as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Easy to see the s/w trof axis on WV moving through ND currently, temps still in the mid-upper 30's. Freezing levels still too high but gradually coming down by the hour. The low-level baroclinic zone is just outrageous. Serious heat feeding the circulation (925mb temps near 20 deg C) Northwest MN will be jackpot zone tomorrow between 10-18z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 That is true... I am worried it won't pivot just right over us. However, I am probably heading out east on HWY 2 with another grad student who has a 4x4 jeep. Looking for some nice blizzard type conditions for footage. You're right, the 500 ft difference could be a problem in a close situation such as this. curious to what max sfc wind gusts end up being as 925mb winds still progged at 50kts for a time tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 That is true... I am worried it won't pivot just right over us. However, I am probably heading out east on HWY 2 with another grad student who has a 4x4 jeep. Looking for some nice blizzard type conditions for footage. You're right, the 500 ft difference could be a problem in a close situation such as this. I think you guys won't have to stray far for some epic shots. Honestly you could stay in GFK around early morning and get it. Either way, I am jealous. SHould see some ripping +SN by morning. Good ole cement sticking to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Easy to see the s/w trof axis on WV moving through ND currently, temps still in the mid-upper 30's. Freezing levels still too high but gradually coming down by the hour. The low-level baroclinic zone is just outrageous. Serious heat feeding the circulation (925mb temps near 20 deg C) Northwest MN will be jackpot zone tomorrow between 10-18z or so. Agreed, especially the italicized part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 curious to what max sfc wind gusts end up being as 925mb winds still progged at 50kts for a time tomorrow morning. The wind is already just roaring outside here on the second floor of our apartment building. Some light rain sounding like heavy rain because its hitting the building so hard. The winds will be crazy tomorrow, I think. NWS calling for gusts in the 50s. I should make a stipulation... crazy for me... I'm not used to being in wide open northern Plains snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 curious to what max sfc wind gusts end up being as 925mb winds still progged at 50kts for a time tomorrow morning. I am backing off on winds tmrw from what the potential could have been if the NAM verbatim occurred from a day ago. Lack of a cold air punch, a deep tropopause undulation/dry slot and associated sting jet, and greater than moist adiabatic profiles will probably keep things somewhat tame...mostly mid 30s with a few gusts to 45 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 If you believe the intellicast radar, we almost have some moderate snow/mix here... but I'm aware that its probably melting in that small surface area that the radar can't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Prinsburg, have any of your shiny new 4d-var RGEM maps to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Also, for those wanting a good surface map...one of the best out there. Can display station plots, present wx, ceiling categories, flight categories, etc. etc. http://www.wrh.noaa....1895&density=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Excellent MD - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2020.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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