prinsburg_wx Posted April 17, 2013 Author Share Posted April 17, 2013 MPX decided to pull the trigger and has issued a wsw thu morning thru fri. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN859 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013...YET ANOTHER LATE SEASON WINTER STORM EXPECTED THURSDAY INTOFRIDAY....TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLEOF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSSWESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 2TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A SECOND AND MOREPOTENT SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND INTOSOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEMCOULD SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREABEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTINDICATIONS SUGGEST AROUND 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER A BROADSWATH OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALSPOSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TOTIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...HOWEVER PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO POST AWINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.MNZ043>045-049>053-056>070-073>078-082>085-091-092-WIZ014>016-023>025-171100-/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0011.130418T1500Z-130419T1500Z/MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...BOYCEVILLE859 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHFRIDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNINGTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE RAIN SNOW LINE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.* SNOW ACCUMULATION: AROUND 6 INCHES.* OTHER IMPACTS: STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 18, 2013 Share Posted April 18, 2013 MPX decided to pull the trigger and has issued a wsw thu morning thru fri. Snowing yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 18, 2013 Author Share Posted April 18, 2013 yes, snowing good...schools letting out around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 19, 2013 Share Posted April 19, 2013 2 3/4" (7 cms) snow on the ground attm outside my apt. but the accumulation is a combination of sleet and snow, and is compacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 20, 2013 Share Posted April 20, 2013 St. Cloud, MN all time record April snow so far, from MSP. Does not bode well for those of us down river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Looks fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Looks like the flip switches late this week. GFS MOS is 72 at MSP on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Looks like the flip switches late this week. GFS MOS is 72 at MSP on Sunday. Any chace that could be an anomalous reading? MOS guidance has wanted GFK to be in the 50s for the last few weeks especially after NCEP switched the parameterization schemes over to the Summer modes but we've only seen our first 40 of the year yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 another beautiful winter day. 2 inches on the ground, roads a slushy mess, 4 inches predicted by NOAA, 6-8 by GFS and NAM, looks like they might be right, snow will not be ending any time soon. Very pretty. I'd take pictures but you all know what snow looks like. No virga with this stuff, it's coming down really good for what the radar shows it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Any chace that could be an anomalous reading? MOS guidance has wanted GFK to be in the 50s for the last few weeks especially after NCEP switched the parameterization schemes over to the Summer modes but we've only seen our first 40 of the year yesterday. Sure, I haven't been following how well (or not) MOS has been handling the upper midwest. Actually, the deterministic run of the GFS is even warmer than that for MSP and actually has 70s into GFK. Surface temps can be especially tricky with the snowcover and maybe potential fog issues, but looking at 850, it is probably nice for you guys to see a +10 instead of a -10! KGFK had 40 on 1/10/13, but the fact that I had to even look that up at this point is obscene. What an awful spring up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 another beautiful winter day. 2 inches on the ground, roads a slushy mess, 4 inches predicted by NOAA, 6-8 by GFS and NAM, looks like they might be right, snow will not be ending any time soon. Very pretty. I'd take pictures but you all know what snow looks like. No virga with this stuff, it's coming down really good for what the radar shows it to be. I think a lot of the snow totals will tend to the low end. Not sure about the Winter Storm Warning for the Twin Cities. Tough to get that much snow to actually accumulate this late when snow falls during the daylight hours (needs to dump). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Found a webcam from Willmar, near Prinsburgwx. Beginning to accumulate out west nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 22, 2013 Author Share Posted April 22, 2013 3" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 I think a lot of the snow totals will tend to the low end. Not sure about the Winter Storm Warning for the Twin Cities. Tough to get that much snow to actually accumulate this late when snow falls during the daylight hours (needs to dump). That's what I was saying last week, saying 3" or so based on the system before. and momma nature gave me 6" or so out of that. So I'm not doubting anything at this point. btw, it's all snow in the north end of st paul at the moment. a fairly wet snow, but snow none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 That's what I was saying last week, saying 3" or so based on the system before. and momma nature gave me 6" or so out of that. So I'm not doubting anything at this point. btw, it's all snow in the north end of st paul at the moment. a fairly wet snow, but snow none the less. It switched over here around 2:00, a nice moderate snow..But that late April sun angle wasn't having it. It took a good three hours to get a inch in the grass. We had seven inches last week and that melted within 2 days. Rates are really ramping up now, as we lose daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Now it is coming. 3.5" LSR from Burnsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Now it is coming. 3.5" LSR from Burnsville. 1.8"/4.5cms as of last check outside my apt a few mins ago. fairly wet snow. feels like a 9-1 to 10-1 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Just switched over down here. I'm just north of the mix/snow line per radar. Measured .58" liquid from today's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 8-1 snow here to this point (7cms/2.8" snow on the ground, and just under 1cm water equivalent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 Sure, I haven't been following how well (or not) MOS has been handling the upper midwest. Actually, the deterministic run of the GFS is even warmer than that for MSP and actually has 70s into GFK. Surface temps can be especially tricky with the snowcover and maybe potential fog issues, but looking at 850, it is probably nice for you guys to see a +10 instead of a -10! KGFK had 40 on 1/10/13, but the fact that I had to even look that up at this point is obscene. What an awful spring up there. This has to have been one of the coldest March/Aprils on record for many places in the northern plains. For instance, Minot, ND saw a -14.5 anomaly in March, and is -16.6 so far in April. That's unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 This has to have been one of the coldest March/Aprils on record for many places in the northern plains. For instance, Minot, ND saw a -14.5 anomaly in March, and is -16.6 so far in April. That's unreal. That is nasty. March was ND's 15th coldest on record. Put another top-15 or better next to it and I'm sure it will be way up there, if not #1. Pretty amazing stat from Minneapolis (per Paul Douglas I think) Kent from Eden Prairie writes "I heard that we set a record low temperature last Saturday, the first record low for the Twin Cities in nearly a decade (2004). For the sake of comparison, how many record high temps. have we set during this time?" Great question. 42 record highs for MSP since 2004. 1 record low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
f2tornado Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The seemingly ever expanding MSP heat island effect is very real and I wonder what the stats would look like in places like St. Cloud, Mankato, or Eau Claire. Grand Forks has had fair number of record lows during this stretch, and probably half a dozen or so this spring alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The seemingly ever expanding MSP heat island effect is very real and I wonder what the stats would look like in places like St. Cloud, Mankato, or Eau Claire. Grand Forks has had fair number of record lows during this stretch, and probably half a dozen or so this spring alone. Definitely a combination of warming and heat island at MSP. I quickly took a look at St. Cloud's records on MPX's site. From 2000 forward: 53 record highs set or tied 20 record lows set or tied What is interesting is how dramatic the difference is between the first half of the year and the second half. From July through December, record highs only outnumber record lows 16 to 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Definitely a combination of warming and heat island at MSP. I quickly took a look at St. Cloud's records on MPX's site. From 2000 forward: 53 record highs set or tied 20 record lows set or tied What is interesting is how dramatic the difference is between the first half of the year and the second half. From July through December, record highs only outnumber record lows 16 to 13. Eau Claire's seasonal difference is stunning From 2000 forward: 62 record highs set or tied 15 record lows set or tied October through April - 53 highs, 3 lows May through August - 9 highs, 12 lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 GFS showing a few convective signals for Monday night into Tuesday morning for ND and portions of the RR Valley. This is less than ideal for flood concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 GFS showing a few convective signals for Monday night into Tuesday morning for ND and portions of the RR Valley. This is less than ideal for flood concerns. Was discussing this this morning with WPC QPF and RFC... though it would take a lot of rain to cause issues it seems....throwing in 2 inches of rain at Fargo pushes crest closer to 40 ft versus near 38 ft with less than half inch. Latest models indicate a bit more qpf in nrn nd and with snowpack in nrn Devls Lake basin much more in tact maybe more issues there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Could also pose issues for Minot if they get a big warm up and then training thunderstorms in the same week. They have a much bigger snow pack to deal with than we do here in the RRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Did anyone see this? Embarrass, MN fell to -14 on 4/20/13, which is the coldest temperature ever seen after 4/15 in MN. http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/264892/ Overall, this sums up the month quite well: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/04/23/record-shattering-cold-and-snow-stun-rockies-north-central-u-s/ What a complete 180 from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Could also pose issues for Minot if they get a big warm up and then training thunderstorms in the same week. They have a much bigger snow pack to deal with than we do here in the RRV. Biggest issue facing Minot is area northwest of there in the upper Souris basin again....they have had record snows in places like Moose Jaw and Regina and very very wet conditions with flood conditions expected to be worse than 2011 according to the Sask Water Agency. What happened in 09 was very un-precidented 9+ inches of rain in May to early June in that area of Sask...... and with that much water little could be done downstream. I did see that very recently the Sask Water Agency and the NWS have a MOU to better share information as the lack of data sharing across the border was a key problem between the RFC and the Sask Water Agency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Definitely a combination of warming and heat island at MSP. I quickly took a look at St. Cloud's records on MPX's site. From 2000 forward: 53 record highs set or tied 20 record lows set or tied What is interesting is how dramatic the difference is between the first half of the year and the second half. From July through December, record highs only outnumber record lows 16 to 13. April 2013 is certainly bucking that trend. Nationally, record lows outnumber record highs about 5 to 1 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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