andyhb Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 That's a nice looking cell tracking along the WF north of Willmar, MN. Moving towards the Twin Cities area should it maintain strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 VIL is nasty on that one approaching the western MSP burbs and the one halfway up to Duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 That's quite a string of hail reports west of the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Looks like a bunch of hail damage in the southern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 There are a couple of tornado warnings already storm near Colfax, North Dakota 2013_08_06_2103z_ABR_colfax.png Here is the storm survey results for that storm in far southeastern ND https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201308072319-KFGF-NOUS43-PNSFGF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 supercell with a 3D volume view (with BWER overhang) Pringle, South Dakota (Rapid City Radar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MnWeatherman Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 That's quite a string of hail reports west of the Twin Cities. Was out chasing that day and saw a large, low hanging wall cloud- really wanted to put down a tornado. What struck me was how crisp and strong the anvil cloud looked, which was the best looking one I've seen to date. On the side note, my house was in the line of fire with tennis ball size hail totaling one of our vehicles and busting out 3 windows, along with significant siding and roof damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Looks like north central to NE ND may have a chance at some interesting weather for a change this weekend. Still too early to talk specifics but there has been a consistent shortwave coming through for multiple days on the GFS effecting the area on Sunday. Placement of the mid level wave has been all over the place, sometimes way up in Canada, but mostly further south. The 00z suite is the most impressive so far with 25 knot low level jet also showing up. With the directional shear profile, it looks more like an MCS/line segment type threat at this point but with very impressive instability and strong speed shear values in the northern part of the state we could see some nasty storms if the 00z run were to verify. Finally watching something interesting locally that looks to take place on a weekend. Knowing my luck, it will probably stall until Monday or just fizzle out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Nice potentially tornadic supercell moving across Wadena/Otter Tail Counties in MN currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 There's a new tornado warning for the squall line in Douglas County, WI. I wonder if this will beat the (other) long-lived supercell in MN for actual tornado reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Pretty good heat wave in the upper midwest for late August. Two record highs already at MSP. No positive daily climo departures through the 18th there, and yet the month is going to finish maybe +3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Pretty miserable around the eastern Dakotas the past week or two. So very dry in many areas and the heat/humidity. Many schools opened up last week and some school districts have cancelled school for those students going to schools without A/C or in the case of Grand Forks students have been dimissed at 1 pm each day this week. Been having highs of 90-92 and lows around 70 with HI 95 to 100. Much cooler Sunday and more normal temps next week after Labor Day when most Minnesota schools start. They were saying first time in 26 years there have been cancellations due to high heat in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Confirmed large, damaging tornado west of Hill City, MN. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ITASCA...NORTHWESTERN AITKIN AND EAST CENTRAL CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PMCDT...AT 645 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF REMER...JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXPECT TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...HILL CITY...HAYPOINT...SWATARA AND SPLIT HAND LAKE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLYTORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVETO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOIDWINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THECLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THETORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Good thing that tornado didn't last long. Could this be the start of something big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Good thing that tornado didn't last long. Could this be the start of something big? The start of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 The start of what? Active autumn tornado season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Tornado watch issued for NW MN and N WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Radar estimates some baseball size hail in the storm near Duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Might be a red box for the Kimberly MN storm soon, the circulation is tightening over Rice Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Might be a red box for the Kimberly MN storm soon, the circulation is tightening over Rice Lake. Low level rotation is still broad/weak at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 The start of what? Active autumn tornado season. Ah, I got ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 I wonder if there will be any 104s or 105s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 for Andyhb- Cell that moved out of Rapid City, isosurface, showing a huge overhang with heavy rain and hail aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Flying eagle supercell coming down I-94 towards Bismarck. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND713 PM CDT FRI AUG 30 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA* UNTIL 745 PM CDT* AT 710 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF NEW SALEM...OR 36 MILES WEST OF BISMARCK....AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MANDAN...ALMONT...NEW SALEM...JUDSON...SWEET BRIAR LAKE...CROWN BUTTE LAKE AND ST. ANTHONY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 BTW, ThetaE=380K near Lincoln NE today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Large MCD out for much of MN and the E Dakotas. Fairly substantial vort max moving through the area this afternoon/evening. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN DAKOTAS AND MN. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 311910Z - 312115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SVR THREAT IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH AFTN...WITH INITIAL MIXTURE OF CONVECTIVE MODES POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO QUASI-LINEAR AND CLUSTERED SYSTEMS. ALL SVR MODES ARE POSSIBLE DURING FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS REGIME...EVOLVING TO WIND-DOMINANT. WW LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THIS AREA DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM PEMBINA COUNTY ND SWWD ACROSS PIR AREA...FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. LARGE AREA OF MIDLEVEL CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER IS MOVING EWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN SD...ERN ND AND NWRN MN AT ABOUT 30 KT...SOMEWHAT OUTPACING SFC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS CLOUD/PRECIP MASS REMAINS BEHIND FRONT...AND BULK OF CLOUD AREA AHEAD OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT BOTH PACE AND MAGNITUDE OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING IN WARM SECTOR. RELATED WEAKENING OF PREFRONTAL MLCINH IS GRADUAL...BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT SHOULD ALLOW RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED/SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS BY ABOUT 21Z. AS SUCH...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALREADY EVIDENT WITHIN CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME MAY BECOME SFC-BASED IN SITU. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE ALONG COLD FRONT ITSELF...AS WELL AS AREAS OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG SRN/ERN RIM OF CLOUD/PRECIP MASS. SFC MOIST AXIS...WITH PATCHY CONFIGURATION OF MOSTLY MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS...WAS DRAWN JUST AHEAD OF FRONT OVER ND AND SWD ACROSS ERN SD NEAR MHE/YKN AREA...WHERE LOW-70S VALUES WERE OBSERVED. AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF FRONT AMIDST SSWLY/SWLY SFC FLOW. RELATIVELY VEERED/5-10 KT SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT LOW-LEVEL SRH/CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER DEEP SHEAR STILL WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND FOR BOWING OF ANY QUASI-LINEAR MODES. DEEP SHEAR OVER ERN ND AND NRN MN SHOULD INCREASE WITH APCH OF HEIGHT-GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS PRECEDING SK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES INCREASING WITH TIME TO 45-55 KT RANGE OVER MORE OF ERN ND/NWRN MN AND 35-45 KT ELSEWHERE. ..EDWARDS/GOSS.. 08/31/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Large MCD out for much of MN and the E Dakotas. Fairly substantial vort max moving through the area this afternoon/evening. The "Minnewatch" for all but 6 counties of Minnesota, plus Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Here are a few videos from the last few days that were kind of cool: This is the bow echo that came through Grand Forks on the morning of 8/29 at sunrise: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WifsN-97GmM&feature=c4-overview&list=UUEXaLo_xhdnyk6JG_-WXvyA This is a GoPro timelapse of us approaching the supercells near Bismarck coming from Medora, ND on 8/30 (The day of the New Salem tornado): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOpteY38IYw&feature=c4-overview&list=UUEXaLo_xhdnyk6JG_-WXvyA And finally, a distant timelapse of a supercell near the US/Canada border in northeast ND on 8/31: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJbK1vkC3mo&feature=c4-overview&list=UUEXaLo_xhdnyk6JG_-WXvyA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 If storms can fire in North Central/Northeast ND tomorrow, they could get pretty nasty. Substantial helicity values with moderate to strong instability forecasts and very steep lapse rates. Cap and wave timing are the two big question marks. If storms fire early enough, there could be a tornado or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 If storms can fire in North Central/Northeast ND tomorrow, they could get pretty nasty. Substantial helicity values with moderate to strong instability forecasts and very steep lapse rates. Cap and wave timing are the two big question marks. If storms fire early enough, there could be a tornado or two. Tomorrow looks like a real good MCS set-up for northern ND/southern MB. Strong system and cold front slicing through 2,500-3,000 J/KG MUCAPE. LLJ looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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