famartin Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I have placed a topic in the general forum regarding the revised NWS snow measurement guide... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 410 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE... LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD... FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON... MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS... BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA... HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...REDWOOD FALLS...AMERY... BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON... NEW RICHMOND * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 9 INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. * TIMING: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL BECOME STEADIER TONIGHT AND HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DANGEROUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATLY IMPACTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 410 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE... LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD... FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON... MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS... BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA... HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...REDWOOD FALLS...AMERY... BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...HUDSON... NEW RICHMOND * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 6 TO 9 INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. * TIMING: OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL BECOME STEADIER TONIGHT AND HEAVY AT TIMES BY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. * IMPACTS: TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DANGEROUS ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATLY IMPACTED. You should fare quite well with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 looking at the models here, looks like two camps for the northern plains/canadian prairies. with the 18Z solutions coming in on the early-week prairies/mid-week great lakes storm. Camp one is the modified 3dvar model runs (NAM/GFS) and camp 2 seems to be the foreign 4dvar-based models (Canadian Global/Euro/UKMET) in the other. Both of them are going with Alberta getting nailed as well as the southern Cypress Hills and Superior-West/northern Ontario. The differences seem to be how to handle the Manitoba Lakes and the Red River Valley, with the 4dvar solutions going much colder and drier there while the 3dvar goes wetter and snowier. As for the leaning, I am currently thinking the 4dvar solutions are a bit more probable, but I'm not totally discounting the modified-3dvar solutions either until i can gauge the depth of the cold air this system can gather. thoughts? I haven't been watching terribly close, but close enough to know the American models really struggled mightily with the leading shortwave...and the amplification as it ejected the N Rockies into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 You should fare quite well with this storm. 5" here so far...for once the euro out performed the gfs on a winter event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Record daily snowfall at the airport of 7.3 inches yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 a warm-up through the week here in MSP with another shot of cold air on Fri/Sat. looks too progressive right now for much of anything from Thursday's event, but maybe some lows in the -20s by Fri night per MPX. nice cold weather for the winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 From 11 days ago... RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND200 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT BISMARCK ND WEDNESDAY...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -22 DEGREES WAS SET AT BISMARCK NDYESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -21 SET IN 1945. Bismarck hit -31 this morning (Dec. 23)...but not cold enough for a record. It was -40 on this date back in 1983. On 12/24/1983, the high/low IMBY (western suburbs of Chicago) was -11/-25, which is 41 degrees below normal. One of the all-time great arctic outbreaks. I was only 9 years old at the time, but for some reason I can still remember that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Blizzard with heavy snow in North Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Fargo, ND. freezing rain with 38 knot wind gust. That's adding insult to injury KFAR 281826Z 34033G38KT 1/2SM FZRA FZFG OVC007 M08/M10 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 34038/1826 UPB14E21FZRAB26SNE14 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 43F here at FCM last hour. crazy warm outside and sunny to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Probably one of the more impressive arctic fronts I have seen in the Plains in a while. Meteogram for my hometown: 43 degree F temperature drop in 15 hours. It sounds silly now, but these were the type of fronts that used to have major impacts on society 50-60 years ago. It wasn't uncommon for significant fatalities to occur during these, now it is common information with mostly minimal societal impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 MSP now at 46F, breaking the record high temp for today (a record from 1896 no less). MSP hasn't been this warm since mid-November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 MSP may also come close to a record low Monday morning (record is -20F). the forecast is for -16F currently. This would be a 62 degree drop in temperature within 36 hours. crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Grand Forks at the last obs. GRAND FORKS PTCLDY -13 -20 71 N25 30.38R WCI -42 Arctic air is flowing in quickly. http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Fargo area this Sunday afternoon along I-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 wow. that's quite a picture. once again, 24 hour temperature changes of over 40 degrees F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 The ECMWF continues to depict one hell of a polar outbreak day 6 and beyond. Some of the progged 850 Ts in the -35C range are almost unheard of. Even the tame GFS/CMC are progging a significant event. Haven't looked at EC ensembles, but the high latitude blocking over AK and PV dumping south could make things quite interesting...an 80s type cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted December 30, 2013 Share Posted December 30, 2013 Midnight Saturday I was at 30 (after a high of 45), midnight last night I was at -18. My thought is once it's -10 or -15 it doesn't really feel much different as long as it's calm. Baro, I remember December 1983 very well. The oil in my car actually was so cold, after having it sit outside for a few days, I had to get it in a heated area just to turn over to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 223 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014 .A POWERFUL ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY...HELPING LOOSEN THE SNOW PACK. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. INTENSE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 30 MPH TO 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGH WINDS...CURRENT SNOW PACK AND ADDITIONAL FRESH SNOWFALL COULD COMBINE TO BRING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY EVENING...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE ENTIRE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS STORM COULD RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONGEST ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH FRIGID TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO 30S BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO LIFE THREATENING LEVELS AROUND 40 TO 60 BELOW ZERO. MNZ001>003-027-029-030-040-NDZ024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053- 041800- /O.NEW.KFGF.WC.Y.0001.140102T2200Z-140103T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KFGF.BZ.A.0001.140104T0000Z-140104T1800Z/ WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-WEST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-GRANT- EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM- SARGENT-RICHLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS... HALSTAD...MOORHEAD...DETROIT LAKES...BRECKENRIDGE... FERGUS FALLS...ELBOW LAKE...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS... COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE...VALLEY CITY...FARGO...LISBON... GWINNER...WAHPETON 223 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS BLIZZARD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * TIMING...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE VALLEY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE MILE AT TIMES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTH VALLEY. * WIND CHILL VALUES...25 TO 35 BELOW TONIGHT...WITH LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS 40 TO 60 BELOW DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. * OTHER IMPACTS...BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL LIFE THREATENING WINTER WEATHER BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA...BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ground Blizzard going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Glad I'm in the valley, although the wind is whipping around. Got a good stack of wood moved into the garage....bring on the -30's!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the real deal is starting in northern North Dakota, with some winds near gale force and snow. Saw your pics, Prinsburgwx. Dang. You have a ground blizzard with a south wind picking up snow that was already on the ground. Don't see that too much. Southerly winds are usually pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the real deal is starting in northern North Dakota, with some winds near gale force and snow. Saw your pics, Prinsburgwx. Dang. You have a ground blizzard with a south wind picking up snow that was already on the ground. Don't see that too much. Southerly winds are usually pretty warm. ground blizzard lasted a few hours with wind gusts near 50...was awesome while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Mark Dayton closed school in the entire state of MN for Monday for the impending polar outbreak. I remember a few of those when I was a kid, but they have been incredibly rare the last 15 years. http://mn.gov/governor/newsroom/pressreleasedetail.jsp?id=102-107322 Governor Dayton Announces Minnesota Public Schools Will Be Closed MondayJanuary 03, 2014 With forecasts predicting dangerously cold weather, all K-12 schools will be closed on Monday, Jan. 6th ST. PAUL, MN – To protect Minnesota schoolchildren from forecasted dangerously cold weather, Governor Mark Dayton announced today that all of the state’s K-12 public schools will be closed next Monday, January 6th. The National Weather Service predicts that most of the state will experience the coldest temperatures in a decade next Monday, with lows reaching -30 degrees and wind chills predicted to reach as low as -50 degrees. High temperatures from International Falls to Rochester are forecasted to be only -15 degrees. “The safety of Minnesota’s schoolchildren must be our first priority,” said Governor Dayton. “I have made this decision to protect all our children from the dangerously cold temperatures now forecasted for next Monday. I encourage Minnesotans of all ages to exercise caution in these extreme weather conditions.” The decision to close schools across the state was announced today in order to give school administrators, teachers, and parents sufficient time to plan for these closures. The Minnesota Department of Education will be coordinating with school districts throughout the day to notify the public about Monday’s school closings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ground blizzard footage from the outskirts and in town of Grand Forks, ND last night. Was pretty intense and I measured a 44.6 mph gust with my kestrel at one point. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrZ1-I2G6d4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Ground blizzard footage from the outskirts and in town of Grand Forks, ND last night. Was pretty intense and I measured a 44.6 mph gust with my kestrel at one point. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrZ1-I2G6d4 Nice footage, brings back semi-fond memories of GFK. Worst blizzard I got stuck in was driving out to take obs at the airport. Was one of the most white-knuckle driving experiences of my life. A year later a woman was killed on that highway in similar conditions when a semi smashed into her in whiteout conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Near Aberdeen SD Thursday: Widespread blowing snow and scattered snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Windy, with a north northwest wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. ----- ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY NIGHT.* WEATHER CONDITIONS...ON THURSDAY MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT MORE AVERAGE 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE. WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD QUICKLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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