ZackH Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 If things pop early though, initial cells very well could remain discrete for a bit with very good directional shear and capping in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 First winter type storm event possible fri-sat for parts of the n plains...gfs/ecm/cmc all have snow for parts of the ne ph, black hills and other parts of sd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 18Z NAM is quite bullish, backs the low up a tad. Rather ideal location of the low at H7 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 2, 2013 Author Share Posted October 2, 2013 fwiw: 0Z NAM thumps se ND with good snows fri night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The NAM continues to get stronger with the wave and now with a 95kt jet at H5 on this thing and the low levels are slightly cooler looking at thickness values. What a beast on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 15, 2013 Share Posted October 15, 2013 Wouldn't you know it - it's snowing in Deadwood again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted October 17, 2013 Share Posted October 17, 2013 GFS paints a possible snowfall for the RRV Sunday morning. Soundings indicate sfc temps > 32 but not by much. My thinking is that we'll get a little snow in the early morning hours when the lowest layer is dry but then it'll switch to a slushy rain/snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 407 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2013 ...EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING A BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ICY AREAS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS. NDZ006>008-015-016-026-027-054-201800- /O.NEW.KFGF.WW.Y.0017.131020T0600Z-131020T1800Z/ TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-NELSON-GRAND FORKS- WESTERN WALSH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CANDO...LANGDON...CAVALIER... DEVILS LAKE...GRAFTON...LAKOTA...GRAND FORKS...ADAMS 407 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT SUNDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted October 20, 2013 Share Posted October 20, 2013 we got about 1/2 inch on the grass this morning in East Grand Forks MN.... a first snow....but nothing to write home about.... as usual always hard to get that immediate layer near the ground to cool enough unless you have very intense snowfall rates to overcome melting. But that is the way it goes with mid October snowfall. A month from now....different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 MPX has just issued a winter storm watch for most of its CWA disco: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MPX&issuedby=MPX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 still lots of trees with leaves on them in SE MN.....hoping for a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 looking at the latest models, it looks like they are starting to converge on a heavier snow band going from FSD to CMX, including the twin cities metro. and when it starts for the metro, evening rush hour (21z timeframe). also on tuesday, it's municipal election day, with major races in St Paul and Minneapolis. low end storm total with the GFS says 4", NAM is saying 10", Canadian regional says 2-3" between 18Z tuesday and 00z wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 0z NAM. 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 This is going to be purely a strong mid level frontogenesis event for portions of the Twin Cities. Doesn't look impressive at first glance, but there is a well defined split stream aloft with a well defined moist conveyor belt associated with the southern stream. The timing has to be perfect for sufficiently heavy rates as there is no cold air (850s are barely -4C) on the northern edge of the front. Moreover, time of day makes a difference with these events, and the beginning will be during the late afternoon Tue. I would bet on the lower end of guidance for now, but I can see why they opted for a watch at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 looking at the latest models, it looks like they are starting to converge on a heavier snow band going from FSD to CMX, including the twin cities metro. and when it starts for the metro, evening rush hour (21z timeframe). also on tuesday, it's municipal election day, with major races in St Paul and Minneapolis. low end storm total with the GFS says 4", NAM is saying 10", Canadian regional says 2-3" between 18Z tuesday and 00z wednesday. I think there will be a strong gradient in snow accumulation near the Twin Cities. The 4km NAM (06z) has over 10" for a few areas of Nebraska and South Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think there will be a strong gradient in snow accumulation near the Twin Cities. The 4km NAM (06z) has over 10" for a few areas of Nebraska and South Dakota. agreed, it also doesn't allow much room for error, as a grid point or two may mean the difference between a dumping and squat. and the models are very consistent on that. now it's just a matter of does the line set up where the models say, or does it waver a bit, and in what direction. and the 12Z nam continues that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Winter wx advisory for a stripe through the Cities. Snowing at least as close as Hutchinson right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 5, 2013 Author Share Posted November 5, 2013 snowing good here...almost 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 615 PM CST TUE NOV 05 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0608 PM SNOW 4 ESE CAMDEN STATE PARK 44.33N 95.86W 11/05/2013 E7.0 INCH LYON MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0608 PM SNOW 6 ESE MARSHALL 44.42N 95.67W 11/05/2013 M8.5 INCH LYON MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0910 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 WNW PIPESTONE 44.02N 96.41W 11/05/2013 E10.0 INCH PIPESTONE MN TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 snowing good here...almost 2" PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD615 PM CST TUE NOV 05 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0608 PM SNOW 4 ESE CAMDEN STATE PARK 44.33N 95.86W11/05/2013 E7.0 INCH LYON MN TRAINED SPOTTER0608 PM SNOW 6 ESE MARSHALL 44.42N 95.67W11/05/2013 M8.5 INCH LYON MN TRAINED SPOTTER 0910 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 WNW PIPESTONE 44.02N 96.41W11/05/2013 E10.0 INCH PIPESTONE MN TRAINED SPOTTER Impressive! I have seen some snow pics coming from the cities. Not much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 One of the snow map plots from earlier- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 6, 2013 Author Share Posted November 6, 2013 had just over 4" here for a total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Great pics Prinsburg! I'm surprised you still have corn standing. Like the combo of early morning light and fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 Great pics Prinsburg! I'm surprised you still have corn standing. Like the combo of early morning light and fresh snow. Lots of corn still standing around here...planting was late and been too wet for harvest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKevinM Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Models seemed to do a pretty good job with placement of heavier snow bands from event on 11/20 - 11/21. There was quite a bit of wind, so I think these snow fall totals are possibly a little low. Looking at another shot with a another front Friday morning/early afternoon. 12Z NAM seems to keep heavier QPF to the west of the RRV for now. Definitely going to feel the cold. Horray winter is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 if you take the euro seriously than most of ND gets rocked with 1-2 ft of snow next week followed by surface temps of -25 below next sat morning. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND248 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013...SNOW AND COLD RETURN NEXT WEEK...WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTASUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A BAND OF ONE TO TWO INCHES OFSNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM CROSBY THROUGH MINOT AND JAMESTOWN ONSUNDAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET ORFREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAYAND WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING REMAINS.HOWEVER...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL...BLOWING SNOW AND TRAVELHAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM...VERY COLDARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 if you take the euro seriously than most of ND gets rocked with 1-2 ft of snow next week followed by surface temps of -25 below next sat morning. Been so busy up here, but the trough currently affecting us with our second major polar outbreak and a strong outflow gap wind event will be the trough digging through the intermountain W. This is a pretty classic setup for a very high ratio/low density snow followed by blizzard as the polar air wraps around the low...especially over the flat expanses of Nodak. Just briefly looking looks impressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 All the potential snow fall coupled with the polar air and we might struggle to reach daytime highs above -10 F next weekend. The GFS is downright nasty with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 looking at the models here, looks like two camps for the northern plains/canadian prairies. with the 18Z solutions coming in on the early-week prairies/mid-week great lakes storm. Camp one is the modified 3dvar model runs (NAM/GFS) and camp 2 seems to be the foreign 4dvar-based models (Canadian Global/Euro/UKMET) in the other. Both of them are going with Alberta getting nailed as well as the southern Cypress Hills and Superior-West/northern Ontario. The differences seem to be how to handle the Manitoba Lakes and the Red River Valley, with the 4dvar solutions going much colder and drier there while the 3dvar goes wetter and snowier. As for the leaning, I am currently thinking the 4dvar solutions are a bit more probable, but I'm not totally discounting the modified-3dvar solutions either until i can gauge the depth of the cold air this system can gather. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 328 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PART OF THE REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WATCH IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO RED WING IN MINNESOTA...AND ELLSWORTH AND CHIPPEWA FALLS IN WISCONSIN. THIS INCLUDES THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE... CHECK BACK ON LATER WINTER WEATHER MESSAGES FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM. MNZ054>070-073-WIZ023>025-027-030530- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0013.131204T0000Z-131205T1800Z/ LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN- ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY- CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO... WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE... ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON... GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...REDWOOD FALLS... HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE... BOYCEVILLE...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER 328 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * TIMING: SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. * IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WHICH COULD MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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