blizznd Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Lots and lots of more rain in the southeastern ND and parts of northwestern MN in and around Fargo-Moorhead areas. 8-9 inches just south of the metro area will push the Red river at Fargo to just over major flood stage of 30 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Geez, Fargo can't get a break this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Just thought I'd put up the timelapse I made of the aurora a couple nights ago if anyone wants to see it. It was the most impressive display I've seen since I've been up here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NkP5Y-OGmM4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Just thought I'd put up the timelapse I made of the aurora a couple nights ago if anyone wants to see it. It was the most impressive display I've seen since I've been up here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NkP5Y-OGmM4 Very cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Looks like a marginal threat for some severe storms this weekend in the Northern Plains. Still a bit far out for specifics but its at least something to keep an eye on with this abysmal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Looks like a marginal threat for some severe storms this weekend in the Northern Plains. Still a bit far out for specifics but its at least something to keep an eye on with this abysmal pattern.Do you honestly expect a good pattern for early July... Not too much left on the bone at this point in the year, even for the Northern plains really. But dual-ridges certainly don't help, one in the Rockies and one in the western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I don't recall ever saying I expected an active pattern right now. I just made the comment that its nice to have something remotely interesting to follow in said rotten pattern. We are approaching the climatological severe peak for this area, however... So any other year I would be expecting some more action. Not quite sure what you're trying to argue about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I don't recall ever saying I expected an active pattern right now. I just made the comment that its nice to have something remotely interesting to follow in said rotten pattern. We are approaching the climatological severe peak for this area, however... So any other year I would be expecting some more action. Not quite sure what you're trying to argue about. He arguing because he likes to "start arguments"... And jojo, get off your high horse, what was the need for the first part of that comment, I'm pretty sure Zack knows plenty of Northern Plains climatology to back up his statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 He arguing because he likes to "start arguments"... And jojo, get off your high horse, what was the need for the first part of that comment, I'm pretty sure Zack knows plenty of Northern Plains climatology to back up his statement. I was arguing? lol... Wasn't meant to be argumentative, just a little sarcastic, because this time of year is pretty dull typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Friday is actually looking pretty interesting supercell and tornado wise for eastern Saskatchewan going off the lastest NAM runs verbatim Impressive helicity values and more than enough instability... great directional shear. Upper level support could be stronger. I wish I could make it up there... I still want my first Canada tornado. Saturday could be more interesting for North Dakota/Minnesota with some threat Sunday also. EDIT: 12z data isn't as bullish for Canada Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 6, 2013 Share Posted July 6, 2013 Friday is actually looking pretty interesting supercell and tornado wise for eastern Saskatchewan going off the lastest NAM runs verbatim Impressive helicity values and more than enough instability... great directional shear. Upper level support could be stronger. I wish I could make it up there... I still want my first Canada tornado. Saturday could be more interesting for North Dakota/Minnesota with some threat Sunday also. EDIT: 12z data isn't as bullish for Canada Friday. This appears to be the first plains severe outlook in several days. I think North Dakota will get a severe thunderstorm watch today. This threat may carry over to Minnesota. Not too much is going on now. It would appear that higher moisture convergence, about 2500 J/kg of CAPE, and about 30 knots of shear will be present in North Dakota, and some multicells will fire up in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 7, 2013 Share Posted July 7, 2013 Derek if you're around, you might want to keep an eye on what is on the GFS from 120-144 and the Euro from 144-168 (Euro is slower with the s/w ejection) currently, if things setup properly it could be a rather substantial threat for the southern Prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Derek if you're around, you might want to keep an eye on what is on the GFS from 120-144 and the Euro from 144-168 (Euro is slower with the s/w ejection) currently, if things setup properly it could be a rather substantial threat for the southern Prairies. Thursday looks prime in SE SK. I will likely be heading out to chase the set-up if things continue to look good. NAM paints an ominous scenario out that way Thursday evening. Main concern is the cap but that's to be expected at this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I'm slightly intrigued by SD/ND/MN on Friday. Low-level backing and shear leave something to be desired, particularly on the NAM, but it looks about as impressive as anything the region saw in June (sadly). Thursday looks insane for SE SK, possibly into SW MB. Boy, I need to get on that passport thing I keep putting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I'm slightly intrigued by SD/ND/MN on Friday. Low-level backing and shear leave something to be desired, particularly on the NAM, but it looks about as impressive as anything the region saw in June (sadly). Thursday looks insane for SE SK, possibly into SW MB. Boy, I need to get on that passport thing I keep putting off. Impressive soundings coming out of there, especially on the GFS, that is quite a nasty looking surface low and trough in general (120+ kt UL jet streak to boot) for this time of year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 4km NAM is UGLY. Shows discrete supercells persisting into the late evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Um...yikes at that graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 Strong wording from the Prairie SPC for tomorrow. FOR THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR WX OUTBREAK IN ERN SK/ WRN MB AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR BRING 20+ DEWPOINTS INTO AREA, GIVING PROGGED SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND FAVOURABLE HODOGRAPH PROFILES. IF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP (NOT A GIVEN), DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY UNDERGOING UPSCALE GROWTH TO A CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Cap is a major, major concern. Everything else looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 If the H7 temps get as warm as the GFS is suggesting, there likely will be problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Impressive 0-3 km EHI/theta-e advection over a large area and localized sfc backing from the 00z NAM across a large area tomorrow for E SK and W MB. Lead edge of a 120-130 kt UL jet streak ejecting into the area, along with 50+ kts at 500 mb. 35-40+ kt LLJ gets going by 00z in eastern SK which should further enhance low level convergence with time and very deep sfc low (less than 992 mb) should enhance low level backing as well. This is certainly a rather impressive setup comparable to some Plains episodes and it's more of a classic leeside cyclogenesis episode synoptically as well. Dews should be at least in the mid-upper 60s. Broad-based nature of the upper trough should encourage an extended window of discrete convection assuming we do get at least scattered convective initiation (this is still a big if given the cap). I would (based on these progs) probably target around the Trans-Canada northward to perhaps the Yellowhead in Eastern SK in terms of cooler mid level temps (perhaps the pentagonal area defined by Weyburn, Regina, Yorkton, Dauphin and Brandon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 The threat for ND seems to have diminished tomorrow, but I feel like the threat for SE Saskatchewan and SW Manitoba has ramped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 TW'd supercell in far SE ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Of course... Was chasing locally earlier and decided to wrap it up. Then that beast forms down there... Could have gotten down there if I had the guts but didn't think development would happen further south... Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Pretty good little environment down there as well per mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 Contemplating a NE SD chase tomorrow but am worried about capping and speed shear. Directional shear and instability look fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Nice couplet and likely tornado NE of Minot earlier... 0542 PM TORNADO 7 NNW GRANVILLE 48.36N 100.90W07/21/2013 MCHENRY ND AIRPLANE PILOTAIRCRAFT REPORTS A SMALL TORNADO ON THE GROUND...NEARING HOUSES 6 TO 7 MILES NNW OF GRANVILLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Tornado watch out for much of Central MN, includes the Twin Cities metro. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 474 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MINNEAPOLIS MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...AS A 50+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK SURFACE WAVE. WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...A REMNANT EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOCUS FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29035. ...KERR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 There are a couple of tornado warnings already storm near Colfax, North Dakota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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