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September 17-19 2012 rain and severe weather potential


SNO

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Aren't you the guy that predicted the big storm last winter that never happened?

Yes...missed that one. Snow last year was hard to come by. This year should be better than last...but that is not saying much.

The thread title is missing "Shake your"

Moneymaker

Yes

Mapgirl...hope all is well :)

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Looks like the Euro is pretty wet on the 3 hour panels. Anyone got any total precip numbers for the area from the Euro?

2-3

Everything is pretty consistent with lots of rain centered on Tuesday. I'd worry it trends west a bit but most everyone should get 1"+ without much trouble.

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Interesting. It doesn't look that great here on wunderground, but the long duration must help the totals.

You made me look again. Make the 2"+ 1.5"+... forgot there are more contours on source maps now. 2"+ is sorta about the WV/VA border.. mainly elevation areas to the west.

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Wouldnt the westward move "help" our chances at severe Tuesday evening? I see LWX in their AFD mentioned a chance for some damaging winds...

Maybe. It sorta strikes me as messy and not the best timing for now. The main trough is decent but it lags a bit.. but there is a strong area of lift with the front so it seems a bit like last weekend in that sense. However, it looks even more like a cool season event than that one did for now. We do get some damaging winds from the more energetic ones.. pencil line events and such. It's worth watching for more I suppose as the shear is certainly there.. I'm just not sold on the rest coming together to make too much of it yet.

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