Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Slight risk...getting tired of all the meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Slight risk...getting tired of all the meh. Soon to be 3rd straight day of meh and nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Turning out to be a pretty nice day. Actually sitting on the deck with a nice breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Hooray an MD... watch likely soon... meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 STW till 10... hail to 1.5" and winds to 70mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 STW till 10... hail to 1.5" and winds to 70mph I dont get the need for this watch today.Weird. AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NRN/ERN VA...SWRN NEW ENGLAND...DE...SERN NY...DC..NJ...MD EXCEPT PANHANDLE. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281626Z - 281830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION FCST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID-AFTN. MOST INTENSE CELLS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL HAIL. SEVERAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/BANDS WITH AGGREGATE COLD POOLS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...ENHANCING WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL ON MESO-BETA SCALE. DISCUSSION...16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT FROM OFFSHORE LONG ISLAND WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW JUST OFF NRN NJ SHORE...THEN GENERALLY WWD OVER SRN PA AND SWWD FROM SWRN PA OVER OH VALLEY. SFC TROUGHS EXTENDED NWD FROM LOW NEAR HUDSON VALLEY AND SWWD FROM NRN NJ ACROSS CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY TO S-CENTRAL VA AND WEAK LOW OVER WRN NC. EACH OF THOSE MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE THREAT. RR MODEL REASONABLY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO FORM ALONG SRN TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS. THIS WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THAT AREA...AS WILL SEA-BREEZE AND BAY-BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR COASTLINES. AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION...WITH STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING WELL UNDERWAY AND CINH NEARLY GONE OVER MOST OF AREA. INSOLATION AND PRESENCE OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...EVIDENT IN SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F AND 1.5-1.75 INCH GPS PW READINGS...WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY ACCORDINGLY SHOWS DEEP CU...TCU AND CB IN PATCHES FROM SRN PA AND NJ SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MD AND ALSO DELMARVA PENINSULA...ON BOTH SIDES OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND INVOF TROUGH. SWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS WITH 30-40 KT MAGNITUDES WILL AID IN MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 I dont get the need for this watch today.Weird. No cap. General summertime popcorn t-storms, but enough shear in place to actually keep them going. (ie. the SoMD cell and the York,PA Cell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 No cap. General summertime popcorn t-storms, but enough shear in place to actually keep them going. (ie. the SoMD cell and the York,PA Cell) Ahh thanks JT. Was shocked to pull the trigger still even for just some pop corn type storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Really nothing going on out there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Ahh thanks JT. Was shocked to pull the trigger still even for just some pop corn type storms. I figured as much they would of pulled the trigger on the watch, but I would of thought they would of pulled the bare minimum watch not the 60kt watch. Storms today do have the potential for some severe but chances are slim. (Thus the <2/15/5 by SPC) Just to show, my girlfriend up in the york area reported some small hail and small branches down, but nothing severe criteria worthy, earlier this morning. Main things against us today are the mid-level and upper level lapse rates. Deep southwesterly flow from the deep south where thunderstorms have very effectively turned over the atmosphere from 500mb up yesterday is now over us and providing a really crappy environment for updrafts. Looking around at the storms in the watch box, there isn't one storm that's over 35kft. Which is real shame because sfc dewpoints have been falling in the past few hours making a nice inverted "v" look to the lower atmosphere which has made D-CAPE values go up to near 1200j/kg (per SPC Meso). You could get some 60 mph gusts with those kinds of values with a good storm on top. But that likely won't happen today. tl;dr people: If you get under a popcorn shower today, expect a little breeze with a short cooldown and a collective "ahhh" from your garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Another 95 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 What a mess of a setup, outflow boundaries flying out in all directions. Alot of rain for areas lucky enough to get under the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Hearing thunder from the Annapolis cell at my house currently. All the planes are coming in short final for 33L over the house to avoid Annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 542 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHEASTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT * AT 537 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR UPPER MARLBORO...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LONDONTOWNE... SHADY SIDE... GALESVILLE... RHODE RIVER... MAYO... MAYO... SOUTH RIVER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 I'm leaving the house now I'm going to check that annapolis cell hopefully get some good pictures from the bottom in route 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 2 brilliant strikes over Annapolis. One as I was setting up and one as I was cleaning rain off lens. Oh well. Gonna try sandy point next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 amazing. i've hardly even seen a cloud here all afternoon. bright, sunny, breezy, and half-pleasant outside. 88 high, 84 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Still think the severe t storm watch really wasnt needed today. sure they have been a few strong storms but nothing to bad or out of the ordinary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Still think the severe t storm watch really wasnt needed today. sure they have been a few strong storms but nothing to bad or out of the ordinary and its now cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Nice little sunshower. Big drops. Should be coming DC's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 3/4" Hail 2 miles W of Mt. Harmony. Basically Wes's backyard. 1" Hail (quarter) on the other side of the bay in St.Michaels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 50 mph winds moving over the Woodrow Wilson bridge according to DCA TDWR. DCA gust to 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Nice specimen to my SE of here, a little to late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 fail/meh/ this hobby sucks.....all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 Bit of rotation south of Upper Marlboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Bit of rotation south of Upper Marlboro Was just looking at that,60mph winds at pg awos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Nice specimen to my SE of here, a little to late and 10 mins later, bye bye nice cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 Was just looking at that,60mph winds at pg awos. Didn't last long... Had a bit of a hook too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 29, 2012 Share Posted July 29, 2012 Was just looking at that,60mph winds at pg awos. Thats the station at Andrews air force base. Intresting that the gust direction was from the WNW (300°) SPECI KADW 290020Z AUTO 34025G52KT 300V020 1SM R01R/1600VP6000FT +TSRA SQ FEW007 SCT047 BKN060 BKN080 25/20 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 30052/0017 RAB0018 TSB0011 CIG 047 RWY19L PRESRR SLP141 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 29, 2012 Author Share Posted July 29, 2012 nice shot from that area.. maybe a bit of a meso in there https://twitter.com/LovelyLadyBumps/status/229373559481454592/photo/1/large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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