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End of July 2012 obs/discussion


Ian

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STW till 10... hail to 1.5" and winds to 70mph

:wacko: I dont get the need for this watch today.Weird.

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN PA...NRN/ERN VA...SWRN NEW

ENGLAND...DE...SERN NY...DC..NJ...MD EXCEPT PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281626Z - 281830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION FCST TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE

ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MID-AFTN. MOST INTENSE CELLS WILL

PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL HAIL. SEVERAL MULTICELLULAR

CLUSTERS/BANDS WITH AGGREGATE COLD POOLS ALSO ARE

POSSIBLE...ENHANCING WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL ON MESO-BETA SCALE.

DISCUSSION...16Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT

FROM OFFSHORE LONG ISLAND WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW JUST OFF NRN NJ

SHORE...THEN GENERALLY WWD OVER SRN PA AND SWWD FROM SWRN PA OVER OH

VALLEY. SFC TROUGHS EXTENDED NWD FROM LOW NEAR HUDSON VALLEY AND

SWWD FROM NRN NJ ACROSS CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY TO S-CENTRAL VA AND

WEAK LOW OVER WRN NC. EACH OF THOSE MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE THREAT.

RR MODEL REASONABLY INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO FORM ALONG SRN

TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN VA...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION APCHS.

THIS WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THAT

AREA...AS WILL SEA-BREEZE AND BAY-BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR COASTLINES.

AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE FAVORABLE

DESTABILIZATION...WITH STG SFC DIABATIC HEATING WELL UNDERWAY AND

CINH NEARLY GONE OVER MOST OF AREA. INSOLATION AND PRESENCE OF RICH

BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...EVIDENT IN SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F

AND 1.5-1.75 INCH GPS PW READINGS...WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES

ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. VIS IMAGERY

ACCORDINGLY SHOWS DEEP CU...TCU AND CB IN PATCHES FROM SRN PA AND NJ

SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MD AND ALSO DELMARVA PENINSULA...ON BOTH

SIDES OF CHESAPEAKE BAY AND INVOF TROUGH. SWLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR

VECTORS WITH 30-40 KT MAGNITUDES WILL AID IN MULTICELL

ORGANIZATION...AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED

OUT.

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Ahh thanks JT. Was shocked to pull the trigger still even for just some pop corn type storms.

I figured as much they would of pulled the trigger on the watch, but I would of thought they would of pulled the bare minimum watch not the 60kt watch. Storms today do have the potential for some severe but chances are slim. (Thus the <2/15/5 by SPC) Just to show, my girlfriend up in the york area reported some small hail and small branches down, but nothing severe criteria worthy, earlier this morning.

Main things against us today are the mid-level and upper level lapse rates. Deep southwesterly flow from the deep south where thunderstorms have very effectively turned over the atmosphere from 500mb up yesterday is now over us and providing a really crappy environment for updrafts. Looking around at the storms in the watch box, there isn't one storm that's over 35kft. Which is real shame because sfc dewpoints have been falling in the past few hours making a nice inverted "v" look to the lower atmosphere which has made D-CAPE values go up to near 1200j/kg (per SPC Meso). You could get some 60 mph gusts with those kinds of values with a good storm on top. But that likely won't happen today.

tl;dr people: If you get under a popcorn shower today, expect a little breeze with a short cooldown and a collective "ahhh" from your garden.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

542 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

SOUTHEASTERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...

NORTHWESTERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 537 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR UPPER

MARLBORO...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LONDONTOWNE...

SHADY SIDE...

GALESVILLE...

RHODE RIVER...

MAYO...

MAYO...

SOUTH RIVER...

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Was just looking at that,60mph winds at pg awos.

Thats the station at Andrews air force base. Intresting that the gust direction was from the WNW (300°)

SPECI KADW 290020Z AUTO 34025G52KT 300V020 1SM R01R/1600VP6000FT +TSRA SQ FEW007 SCT047 BKN060 BKN080 25/20 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 30052/0017 RAB0018 TSB0011 CIG 047 RWY19L PRESRR SLP141 $

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