ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think everyone has given up on morning convection at this point, Upton is calling for dry conditions until Thursday midday, even the AFD says at most light rain. Yes, but the euro is north of the NAM with the MCS event for the evening stuff. In between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 HPC FWIW Valid Thursday 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 HPC FWIW Valid Thursday 8pm This pretty much is what the 12z euro shows, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's like weenie central here over the Mod Risk. With all due respect a day two moderate hatched risk is a weenies dream. It happens far less in this region than even tropical threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Wow, never seen something like that here in the Northeast..pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tommorow has the chance to deliver something historic or deliver an epic bust. We will see, as of right now i applaud them for putting that out to bring light to the potential of tommorow's severe/tornadic storms in that this does have ingredients to be the first real severe outbreak since 1998, save for some differences. Im eager to see the models the rest of the day into tonight to get a real idea of whats gonna go down tommorow. Parameters are there and i expect tornado watches to be hoisted tommorow for our entire area. And the rarity of what they just did certainly added to the "WOW!" factor for tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yes, but the euro is north of the NAM with the MCS event for the evening stuff. In between the NAM and GFS. The models are generally poor at handling MCS. We had first decaying MCS on July 7, that none of the models really picked up on the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches exist. One has to wonder why they weren't utilized on June 29th (or at least I dont think they were) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 c'mon... never trust a model's explicit forecast of convection. the best we can do is identify the risk of svr convection and that risk is def. elevated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 One has to wonder why they weren't utilized on June 29th (or at least I dont think they were) there have been several derecho events where it wasn't used... i don't remember ever seeing one issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nobody is trusting the euro. Just posting what it shows, like we did with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Nobody is trusting the euro. Just posting what it shows, like we did with the NAM. correct. It really has become sad that we can't even post model output without people calling bust or saying how this model is wrong, right, sometimes wrong, better on even days of the week, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 there have been several derecho events where it wasn't used... i don't remember ever seeing one issued I can't recall either..I'm sure a watch was already out for DC/south NJ by the time 00z rolled around for the June 29th derecho, but if the ongoing damaging history of that event combined with that 00z IAD sounding didnt warrant a PDS severe watch, i don't know what would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't recall either..I'm sure a watch was already out for DC/south NJ by the time 00z rolled around for the June 29th derecho, but if the ongoing damaging history of that event combined with that 00z IAD sounding didnt warrant a PDS severe watch, i don't know what would Yes, a watch was issued for us around 630, the mod risk came at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I really think we get put under a PDS watch tommorow. I mean all ingredients are pointing towards a dangerous situation as was seen from the derecho down south several weeks ago. To me it would be prudent of SPC to do that to really get the word out about this potentially dangerous situation tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't recall either..I'm sure a watch was already out for DC/south NJ by the time 00z rolled around for the June 29th derecho, but if the ongoing damaging history of that event combined with that 00z IAD sounding didnt warrant a PDS severe watch, i don't know what would The watch for south Jersey went out at about 10:10 PM that night. Roughly about an hour and a half or so before the convection arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Tornado watches around here are pretty much our version of PDS severe watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Lets not get all hyped up yet. Things could still transition to our north and screw us over big time. Upton's new HWO is very unimpressive for being in a MDT risk. They also mention the best potential is to the north of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have to agree that the convection will be elevated. Showalter indices are from -2 on the gfs and -5 on the nam combined with high LCLs on both models. He meant elevated as in 'increased', not in 'elevated convection not originating at at the surface'. We are going to be south of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Lets not get all hyped up yet. Things could still transition to our north and screw us over big time. Upton's new HWO is very unimpressive for being in a MDT risk. They also mention the best potential is to the north of the CWA. With the morning convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 He meant elevated as in 'increased', not in 'elevated convection not originating at at the surface'. We are going to be south of the warm front. My mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 With the morning convection Ah, thanks. That makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 good read here http://www.ustornadoes.com/2012/07/25/tornado-threat-update-for-july-26-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jggearhead Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 what are we looking at time frame wise with morning rains then the threat in the afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 good read here http://www.ustornado...r-july-26-2012/ I'm on the edge of the Greatest Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Leaving for Scranton, PA, or possibly Binghamton, NY tomorrow around 11ish. I'll give you guys updates as whatever forms comes east at ya's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Might try and gain some latitude late tomorrow afternoon. Southern NY seems like a more than decent place to be if things don't go well IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 15z SREF is coming in Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Just got a chance to look at the latest data, does it seem like this risk is getting maybe a little too much hype? The moderate risk is justified IMO further inland where the best risk of severe storms will be, and it's also quite impressive down here, but NYC is closer to the edge with the question of how far south the severe weather ends up. We may end up receiving the worst of the storms, yet it's just as possible that the storms stay north/west with less activity near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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