TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 When was the last time, there was Day 2 mod risk for any part of our area? I see they also talking about tornadoes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Enhanced tornado risk for tomorrow across our area. No work will be getting done for me tomorrow. That is certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can't remember the last time we were in a 45% hatched wind zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Can't remember the last time we were in a 45% hatched wind zone. It's 45% for all severe types, although damaging wind is the highest threat as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 When was the last time, there was Day 2 mod risk for any part of our area? I see they also talking about tornadoes now. This is probably our first ever, IIRC. I've been at this for 11 years now. Almost missed the best part! ...POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/DERECHO ON THU AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's 45% for all severe types, although damaging wind is the highest threat as of now. Hahaha true, got so excited that I got ahead of myself. I am thinking maybe 45%, 30% and 5-10% for our areas. And perhaps hatched, which is crazy for this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Trying to remember the last 45 hatch Day 2 Moderate in our area. Nothing coming to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Could we be looking at a potential High Risk day tomorrow, tomorrow's severe set up from E OH to New England is really impressive, threat of widespread damaging winds, some very large hail, and a fairly widespread tornado threat (with an enhanced area near surface low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have no idea what 5/31/98 was on D2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 seems way too agressive given the uncertanity, most likely due to SPC getting burned with the Washington DC / mid atlantic derecho earlier this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 seems way too agressive given the uncertanity, most likely due to SPC getting burned with the Washington DC / mid atlantic derecho earlier this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think my excitement for this event has now reached roughly what it would be for a 20" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LOL! Who else knew that was coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Trying to remember the last 45 hatch Day 2 Moderate in our area. Nothing coming to mind. Nada here as well, and I experienced the Labor Day Derecho. Obviously, the last time there was a Derecho in the NE...a High risk was issued by 16:30z on the day of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I have no idea what 5/31/98 was on D2. I think it was moderate on Day 2 and then high on Day 1. I don't think the high risk extended into NJ, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 LOL! Who else knew that was coming? Nobody, but I figured someone would come in and say something along the lines of that haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I think it was moderate on Day 2 and then high on Day 1. I don't think the high risk extended into NJ, though. Yep, it was west of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't remember a day 2 moderate risk for parts of our immediate area. I believe the last high risk day for the Northeast may have been on 5/31/98. http://www.convectiv...8053115_spc.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I can't remember a day 2 moderate risk for parts of out area. I believe the last high risk day for the NE may have been on 5/31/98. http://www.convectiv...8053115_spc.htm It's the only one ever issued in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Does a PDS severe watch exist or is that only for tornado watches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Sorry im located in western Nassau county on the island more specific Im located by mineola just South of the northern state pkwy so im not the South shore witch is good I guess but im still on the island witch is bad Im gathering by other post i think we live on the same block...where do you live? Roslyn Heights? Williston Park? I am in Albertson...and to answer your question, we are just far enough north that we arent affected as bad as the south shore, either in summer or winter. Once you hit Hempstead and south the storms weaken and in the winter it is slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Does a PDS severe watch exist or is that only for tornado watches? PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah, they exist... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2011/ww0525.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 euro has morning mcs way north towards vt and the 00Z threat goes into NW CT and southern MA. Shows very little for our area, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Does a PDS severe watch exist or is that only for tornado watches? A little OT, but yes they do. They are usually reserved for a Derecho event. Very interested to see what Upton has to say about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's like weenie central here over the Mod Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 euro has morning mcs way north towards vt and the 00Z threat goes into NW CT and southern MA. Shows very little for our area, fwiw. I think everyone has given up on morning convection at this point, Upton is calling for dry conditions until Thursday midday, even the AFD says at most light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 It's like weenie central here over the Mod Risk. It's kind of justified to an extent considering this is an extremely rare occurrence across the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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