IWXwx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Congrats to the MI guys on the rain. I'm jealous. Meanwhile 89° here at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Beautiful shelf cloud advancing ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 No lightning or any notable wind gusts, but got a nice shelf cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Now having said all that, I'm stuck inside right now... Pictures of the shelf clouds would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 It will be interesting to watch the evolution of the storms this afternoon and evening with the weak cool front sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. It looks to be a close call around here as to whether we get more storms. Several models indicate the storms in C and N Wisconsin sagging SE into the area, while the GFS indicates the storms fading before they approach. Definitely should be plenty of instability built up, but the cap may be too much to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 It will be interesting to watch the evolution of the storms this afternoon and evening with the weak cool front sweeping across the Upper Great Lakes. It looks to be a close call around here as to whether we get more storms. Several models indicate the storms in C and N Wisconsin sagging SE into the area, while the GFS indicates the storms fading before they approach. Definitely should be plenty of instability built up, but the cap may be too much to overcome. Tom Skilling mentioned those storms as well and thinks they could come as far south as here before dying off. NMM model shows that solution. The MCS might have disrupted the cap further north by you this morning. LLJ might help tonight break part of that cap. You can see the zone to watch out by DLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 the high res guidance have been way too aggressive in diving these ridge rollers southeast..I don't think there's much chance of anything south of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Tom Skilling mentioned those storms as well and thinks they could come as far south as here before dying off. NMM model shows that solution. The MCS might have disrupted the cap further north by you this morning. LLJ might help tonight break part of that cap. You can see the zone to watch out by DDL. Yeah, I agree, look for initiation from about La Crosse to Green Bay this afternoon, then look for them to drift ESE or SE through the late afternoon or evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 the high res guidance have been way too aggressive in diving these ridge rollers southeast..I don't think there's much chance of anything south of MKE. Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles. (About 800) Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles! Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight. They always turn SE if they live long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles! Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight. Right now there is discrepancy on whether the MCS/squall line that is likely today will move primarily due east or drift S/SE. The WRF-NMM is persistent in drifting it southward, while the HRRR keeps all the convection north of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Right now there is discrepancy on whether the MCS/squall line that is likely today will move primarily due east or drift S/SE. The WRF-NMM is persistent in drifting it southward, while the HRRR keeps all the convection north of MKE. ride the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 ride the HRRR I'll go with a compromise. Our local Fox 6 affiliate Skyvision Plus model has been relatively reliable in recent events, and it shows thunderstorms approaching the Milwaukee/Port Washington areas from the NW around 9pm and then even drifting a tad south before dissipating after impacting Milwaukee and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Storms are starting up from Rochester, MN to about Antigo, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Northwestern Ontario north of the Lake of the Woods TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:55 PM EDT MONDAY 18 JUNE 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= EAR FALLS - PERRAULT FALLS - WESTERN LAC SEUL. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO IS ABOUT 40 KM SOUTH OF EAR FALLS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO AND HAIL TO 5 CM IN DIAMETER OR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 90 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Nasty storm near Escanaba, MI. Kinda of the same story with the rest of the strong cells going SW from this one. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 317 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 MIC041-109-182000- /O.CON.KMQT.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120618T2000Z/ DELTA MI-MENOMINEE MI- 317 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MENOMINEE AND CENTRAL DELTA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT/300 PM CDT/... AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA BRANCHE...OR 12 MILES WEST OF ESCANABA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ESCANABA...GLADSTONE...RAPID RIVER...CORNELL...BRAMPTON... PERKINS...MAPLEWOOD AND ENSIGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Wow, kind of surprised at the severe parameters for S Mi right now. Wasnt really expecting this to be our day for severe weather. Did the MCS knock the warm front back south again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Water Spout reported off Cedar Point SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 OHC043-181945- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120618T1945Z/ ERIE OH- 334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EASTERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... AT 325 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR CEDAR POINT. THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY NEAR BERLIN HEIGHTS AT 333 PM AND WAS STRENGTHENING. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE POSSIBLE TORNADO INCLUDE...BERLIN HEIGHTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 VAD out of GRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Lake Vision camera near Huron http://www.lakevision.com/camera_6.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Water Spout reported off Cedar Point SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 OHC043-181945- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120618T1945Z/ ERIE OH- 334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EASTERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... AT 325 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR CEDAR POINT. THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY NEAR BERLIN HEIGHTS AT 333 PM AND WAS STRENGTHENING. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE POSSIBLE TORNADO INCLUDE...BERLIN HEIGHTS. That'll make the roller coasters more interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Water Spout reported off Cedar Point SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 OHC043-181945- /O.CON.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120618T1945Z/ ERIE OH- 334 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR EASTERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO... AT 325 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR CEDAR POINT. THE STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STORM HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY NEAR BERLIN HEIGHTS AT 333 PM AND WAS STRENGTHENING. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE AND A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE POSSIBLE TORNADO INCLUDE...BERLIN HEIGHTS. Radar shows the velocity couplet was right at the Cedar Point causeway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Situation in nrn WI growing more dangerous by the minute right now. Cells are becoming supercellular with increasing low-level rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Another tornado warning for Wausau... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 334 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012 WIC073-182045- /O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120618T2045Z/ MARATHON WI- 334 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MARATHON COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT... AT 331 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RIB MOUNTAIN...OR SOUTH OF WAUSAU...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. RADAR INDICATED STRONG ROTATION. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM! TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 The pretty strong mesocyclone near Wausau is moving through the areas of Schofield, Rothschild, Weston and Kelly. Would imagine that somebody will see something interesting there at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I wonder if complex over northern WI will evolve into a bow over northern MI tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2012 Author Share Posted June 18, 2012 Anyone think there's a chance of additional backbuilding storms in WC or SW Wisconsin? As of now all the models, even the further north HRRR, seem to have placed the convection too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 I wonder if complex over northern WI will evolve into a bow over northern MI tonight. HRRR skirts your county with storms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 18, 2012 Share Posted June 18, 2012 Too far right on some models. It did turn and not head straight east like the other models were suggesting. Looks like complex will head straight into Ohio! SD to OH, that's alot of miles. (About 800) Would be nice to get an outflow boundary tonight. And it just crossed into West Virginia and PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 19, 2012 Share Posted June 19, 2012 And it just crossed into West Virginia and PA! That's about a 1000 mile long path! Looks like it will meet its end in the high country of WV. ... MKX disco. on thunderstorms across the northern half of the cwa. 000 FXUS63 KMKX 182032 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 332 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MESOSCALE MODELS AND MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODELS DEVELOP A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND MOVE THE OUTFLOW-TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT COULD REACH MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREAS FROM 7 TO 10 PM. MUCH LOWER PROBABILITY ON ANYTHING REACHING RACINE OR KENOSHA BEFORE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HANGS UP. WITH NEARLY 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KNOTS OF 6KM BULK SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM. IF THE BOUNDARY REALLY GETS MOVING AND CAN MAINTAIN STRENGTH AND FIGHT AGAINST THE WARM CAP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...THEN THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH. MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO OUR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE RIDGE OF THE CORFIDI VECTORS LINES UP. A CONCERN IS FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY DOWN INTO NORTHERN MILWAUKEE METRO IF HRRR PANS OUT. THE 17Z HRRR SLOWLY MOVES THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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