wisconsinwx Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Well, with the new Day 1 SWO out, and N Illinois and S Wisconsin in the slight risk, there might be a need for a thread. We shall see, but at the least convection and much needed rain is possible, even likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 the 0z 4km wrf has qutie of bit of convection across northern IL near/after 0z this evening lasting into the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 talk about just what the doctor ordered....really need this (rain that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Unfortunately Thompson at SPC just slashed the probs way down. Unfortunately he's almost always right. Still should be an interesting day with that MCV feature coming out of KS later. Already lots of sunshine over MO, southern IA, and central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 The sun should come out here within the next few hours, some serious moisture advection taking here and to the southwest. The HRRR is igniting storms later across IA/MO with that MCV and brings a complex of scattered storms/rain into northern IL after 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 DP managed to recover to 63 so far at MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 It's a rather small, but vigorous wave we have to work with later with great wind fields in the lowest 3km. Also dew points in the upper 60's to low 70's south and west of here in the heart of the moisture axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST CO ACROSS MUCH OF OK...THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...INTO LOWER MI... ..IA/MO/IL/WI/MI SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SERIES OF REMNANT MCVS OVER PARTS OF NEB/KS/OK. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST IN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH INTO THE AFTERNOON TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF IA/MO. THE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG NOTED. EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THIS AREA...BUT THE HBR PROFILER NEAR ICT SHOWED A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL REAR-INFLOW JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO A BOWING SEGMENT LATER TODAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM FIRST OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI AND PERHAPS INTO LOWER MI TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...AS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TEND TO WEAKEN UPDRAFTS AND LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM FIRST OVER NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA AND TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI AND PERHAPS INTO LOWER MI TONIGHT... HRRR continues to advertise complex as well, much like the 12z NAM4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Starting to hear some thunder, cooler outflow as well with these cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 HRRR continues to advertise complex as well, much like the 12z NAM4... Pulling for that in a big way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Just heard a roll of thunder from a storm to my northwest (west of Elgin). Otherwise, it's partly sunny and 88/65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 the 12z 4km WRF is kinda ehhh, big complex rolls across the southern half of IA then falls apart after crossing the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS...SRN IA THROUGH NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 161640Z - 161815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO AND SRN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT. DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SFC LOW IN EXTREME NERN KS SWWD THROUGH ERN AND SRN KS. ANOTHER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN IA. DECAYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR REMNANT GRAVITY WAVE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY FROM NCNTRL MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING IN WAKE OF THE INITIAL OUTFLOW AND EAST OF TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN KS THROUGH MUCH OF MO AND SRN IA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD ABOVE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. PROFILER DATA FROM HOBART KS INDICATE A 50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KM SOUTH OF AN MCV LOCATED OVER NERN KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPID INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER ERN KS...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV. AS THIS ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EXTREME ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND SWRN IA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY MODEST SUPPORTING MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...A SMALL ZONE OF 35-40 KT SHEAR EXISTS WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE MCV...SUGGESTING A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING SEGMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I'm just going to miss the main part of this first round by a few miles! Did get the outflow though - down to 78°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 the 12z 4km WRF is kinda ehhh, big complex rolls across the southern half of IA then falls apart after crossing the river. Other short term guidance is in agreement. If that's the case i'll pass. Dry soil for max heating potential Mon-Wed>lame weaking MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 I was pretty confident in the action falling apart before it got this far east but dewpoints have come up nicely...I think it's killing it off a little premature but i'm not exactly high confidence on that call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Big cell blowing up in far southeast NE. Could be the kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Dews seem to be pooling nicely along some sort of boundary that lies from Dekalb, back through the QC and down towards Ottumwa. Most locations near that boundary have dews hovering around 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Dewpoint up to 68° here. Highest it's been since last summer/late fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Dews seem to be pooling nicely along some sort of boundary that lies from Dekalb, back through the QC and down towards Ottumwa. Most locations near that boundary have dews hovering around 70. Dewpoint up to 68° here. Highest it's been since last summer/late fall. IIRC there was a lot of concern over at LOT regarding the models potentially overdoing dews, hence the low pops...I think they've come up tot he point where we should see better than isolated action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Heavy rain just started here in Geneva. First rain since 31 May. Some thunder and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Decent cell over northern Cook with more trying to get going back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Nice towers going up right overhead here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Nice towers going up right overhead here. yep, new MD for western Illinois as well...I think we'll see some decent coverage over the area this evening/overnight...trying to maintain hope. For the first time this year, it actually feels hot/humid/stormy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Decent cell over northern Cook with more trying to get going back to the west. Boring. Horrible way to end the dry spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Decent cell over northern Cook with more trying to get going back to the west. The cell just northwest of ORD is up to 48kft now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Boring. Horrible way to end the dry spell. meh, i'd take a brief downpour over no brief downpour any day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 More small cells popping up all over N IL, NW IN, and up by Madison now. Definitely feels unstable outside. New cell over South Elgin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 16, 2012 Share Posted June 16, 2012 Cells in southeast Iowa pushing 50kft now. Going to be interesting to see how the complex organizing in southwest Iowa interacts with the storms east of there later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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