Buckeye05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Long range looks somewhat interesting for the Dakotas and Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 I'm really liking tomorrow especially after seeing the most recent run of the NAM, especially if we can get LCL's to remain as low as forecasted along the Warm Front in East-Central KS... It would awesome if we could get a few Discrete Supercells to develop tomorrow along the Warm Front, or just in the warm sector for that matter... If I were chasing tomorrow I'd probable start off in or around Emporia. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Gotta see how much the NAM is overdoing dews... They seem a bit high given what we've seen lately. I would think we can get a 5% tor contour tho given what I've seen. The NAM CAPE is pretty huge tho it could be that it's too moist in the low levels. I'm not convinced it'll work out but there does seem to be potential at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Gotta see how much the NAM is overdoing dews... They seem a bit high given what we've seen lately. I would think we can get a 5% tor contour tho given what I've seen. The NAM CAPE is pretty huge tho it could be that it's too moist in the low levels. I'm not convinced it'll work out but there does seem to be potential at least. There are 70 degree dewpoints in SE OK, NE TX, SW AR right now, so it's very much possible that they are around 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Long range looks somewhat interesting for the Dakotas and Minnesota. This will sound stupid, I haven't looked at the long range models, but what you say makes sense, after this omega block weakens all H could break loose some where up here and further south into IA and perhaps northern Missouri, and lets not forget the front range area of Co.as well. It will be interesting to see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 There are 70 degree dewpoints in SE OK, NE TX, SW AR right now, so it's very much possible that they are around 70. Yeah we're getting late enough into spring/going into summer now that moisture shouldn't be as huge of a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Long range looks somewhat interesting for the Dakotas and Minnesota. As the pattern-forecastable range creeps into mid-June here over the next few days, I'm close to congratulating tornadotony on his call several weeks back that the tornado season was effectively over, in terms of big-ticket regional-scale events outside the Canadian border states. Not once this spring (since 2 Mar, if that counts) have we seen a classic wrn trough plow into a Plains or Midwest warm sector with high theta-e, and nothing in the medium-range modeling I've seen suggests this will change. Overall, this is likely the most disappointing chase season since 2006, with only the 14 April event making it a contest with 2009. Outside that one day, all we've had of substance are very localized/brief events and overperforming marginal setups. The 2009 season was comprised mainly of those, too, but its best days (Apr 29 - Plainview TX, Jun 5 - Goshen Co. WY, Jun 17 - Aurora NE) were a lot better than this year's so far. Years like this are good at putting things back into perspective and reminding me that structure, hail, and all the other cool sights and smells of springtime in the Plains are good enough reason to keep at it. Along those lines, I don't necessarily despair for those on their chasecations right now. There are bound to be at least a few more days with stunning supercells and even "surprise" tornadoes, some of which could be stunning in themselves. With that disclaimer out of the way, I can safely say that Spring 2012 has sucked a big one for forecastable, chaseable daytime Plains tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Yeah we're getting late enough into spring/going into summer now that moisture shouldn't be as huge of a problem. That's true tho it didn't help always the past 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 That's true tho it didn't help always the past 10 days. Right but recent rain and increasing vegetation should help (note the italics). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 This will sound stupid, I haven't looked at the long range models, but what you say makes sense, after this omega block weakens all H could break loose some where up here and further south into IA and perhaps northern Missouri, and lets not forget the front range area of Co.as well. It will be interesting to see what develops. Except the fact that the omega block hasn't broken all Spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Really early day 1 from SPC. Slow moving supercells ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Except the fact that the omega block hasn't broken all Spring... The weekend threat looks fairly legit for now but we'll see. Since I wanted to chase the Dakotas and will be back home it seems fairly likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 The weekend threat looks fairly legit for now but we'll see. Since I wanted to chase the Dakotas and will be back home it seems fairly likely to happen. Haven't seen it on twisterdata yet, will check. I know I saw another trough dropping in after the omega block stymies the first one in its tracks on previous runs. Edit: Meh, it looks like another system that could be prone to a crappy ejection, which has absolutely plagued this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 ^ That said, there is a 140+ kt H3 jet streak on the 00z GFS diving into the coast prior to the trough's development (something you don't normally see in June), so there is potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Really early day 1 from SPC. Slow moving supercells ftw. No, I disagree. I would agree if they were in Western Kansas or something. SPC WRF not showing much at all. NAM 4KM popping storms over me. NAM bringing down an MCS looking thing from NE Kansas. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Haven't seen it on twisterdata yet, will check. I know I saw another trough dropping in after the omega block stymies the first one in its tracks on previous runs. Edit: Meh, it looks like another system that could be prone to a crappy ejection, which has absolutely plagued this year... Yes, because this 1) could be said of any trough a week out and 2) can be diagnosed a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 I really think tomorrow could be a sneaky interesting day especially in Eastern Kansas. Nice little warm front in the area and some really decent low-level shear. I do think the NAM is a bit overzealous with respect to surface dew points, thinking more in the 70-72 range vs 74-76. However there should be moisture pooling along the front, something to monitor with the next few model runs to see if the higher dew points will continue to be shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 Yes, because this 1) could be said of any trough a week out and 2) can be diagnosed a week out. I think plain ole' frustration with the lack of truly solid and evident synoptic setups is beginning to get the better of me, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 3, 2012 Author Share Posted June 3, 2012 ...NRN ID/WRN AND CENTRAL MT AND VICINITY...SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FOR DAY 2...AS A VERY STRONG TROUGH/LOWER OVER DIGGING SEWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK BEGINS TO ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...FAST/DIFFLUENT SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD ID/MT THROUGH THE DAY. AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INLAND AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TOWARD WRN WY...A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS INVOF THE LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT...AND THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MT. WITH LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS MT/NRN ID N AND NE OF THE SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE FAST/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR WILL FAVOR INTENSIFICATION/ROTATION OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS -- WITH SEVERAL SEVERE/SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY BY EARLY EVENING. ALONG WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AND WRN MT WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE. SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS STORMS SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Thoughts on severe potential across the Eastern half of Kansas through Western MO. Seeing LI's from Wichita to Joplin of around -8, Surface CAPE around 2,600 j/kg. Seeing more of a hail and strong winds threat within these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Looking at the latest output and analysis, I am thinks the strongest areas of convection is going to be in a a zone from Chanute,KS to Enid, OK to Bartlesville, OK. Seeing indices across this area pretty favorable for severe weather with a decent shot at seeing a couple of isolated weak tornadoes. Seeing MLCAPE's around the 2,600 area, LI's around -7, 0-3KM SHR around 205 m/s. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Up until 2010, I hadn't heard of major events occurring in MT/ID. I guess it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Huge shift on 1630z tornado probs. Looks like our thoughts on OK over KS were well founded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Huge shift on 1630z tornado probs. Looks like our thoughts on OK over KS were well founded. MCV causing cloudiness and rain in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Dying MCV killed KS for the day. Chasers should gun it towards West-Central Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 there's a little more crud around than i'd like to see at noon.. but area west is clear as a bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 one thing seems pretty sure is that the nam continues to be out to lunch on dew points.. the rap is markedly drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2012 Share Posted June 3, 2012 12z GFS singing a much happier tune for those of us leaving for chase trips tomorrow! (Sorry I'm a tad excited.) It never establishes a full-on block and instead undercuts the ridge. Good stuff (if it verifies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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