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22nd - 24th Storm potential. Eastern Lakes


SpartyOn

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How far are the trees along in OH & eastern ON? This snow is going to stick to the trees like glue if temperatures are just right!

I was discussing on the PA/NY sub forum about how heavy spring snow can be more damaging to trees etc., than autumn. The leaves are already on their way out in the autumn and are loosing their "grip" on the branches. In spring they are healthy and strongly attached to the trees.

It will be interesting to see who gets what with this storm!

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How far are the trees along in OH & eastern ON? This snow is going to stick to the trees like glue if temperatures are just right!

I was discussing on the PA/NY sub forum about how heavy spring snow can be more damaging to trees etc., than autumn. The leaves are already on their way out in the autumn and are loosing their "grip" on the branches. In spring they are healthy and strongly attached to the trees.

It will be interesting to see who gets what with this storm!

Tree damage is almost certain.

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As far as the Ohio Valley./Great Lakes Region goes. Looking at the temp profiles, I am hard pressed to see any temps lower than -5° at 850mb (outside of Northwestern NY state) and it's even harder to find 925 temps lower than -2c if at all. This leads me to think that greatest potential for damaging snow's should stay over the higher elevations of the Appalachian's and those areas that are prone to lake affect snow's like Buffalo. The wild card could be just west of the Appalachian's where up slope winds could bring a bit of surprise. Best guess right now is that eastern OH should be ok. It will be fascinating to watch what this system will do however. Confidence level is this is 6 out of 10. North of the border I haven't looked at.

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Definitely rooting for Toronto posters. They have suffered more than any snowlovers on this forum the past several years, getting cheated during the good times, and being ground zero for the bad times. They look primed for a historically late snowfall, and it will come right on the anniversary of Michigans April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm.

From a purely snow perspective, some may look at it as "stat-padder" snow (a term I hate and fully disagree with), and pretty much all will lament "OMG can you imagine if this storm hit in January?". Also, snow will melt in a day. (On April 24th, my depth peaked at 5.5" during the early evening, was down to 2" by 8am April 25th, and was gone by noon. This from a 6.7-inch fall. The hardest hit areas of Detroits northern burbs, with 16", saw the snow almost completely melted by evening April 25th). But taking all this aside, if this storm comes to fruition, its could be epic for some because of the date, just as 80s in mid-late March were epic, because of the date.

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Definitely rooting for Toronto posters. They have suffered more than any snowlovers on this forum the past several years, getting cheated during the good times, and being ground zero for the bad times. They look primed for a historically late snowfall, and it will come right on the anniversary of Michigans April 23-24, 2005 snowstorm.

From a purely snow perspective, some may look at it as "stat-padder" snow (a term I hate and fully disagree with), and pretty much all will lament "OMG can you imagine if this storm hit in January?". Also, snow will melt in a day. (On April 24th, my depth peaked at 5.5" during the early evening, was down to 2" by 8am April 25th, and was gone by noon. This from a 6.7-inch fall. The hardest hit areas of Detroits northern burbs, with 16", saw the snow almost completely melted by evening April 25th). But taking all this aside, if this storm comes to fruition, its could be epic for some because of the date, just as 80s in mid-late March were epic, because of the date.

Thank you michsnowfreak. It would defininitely be something if it snowed this late in the season and we got a big amount.

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Just a reminder...with early and late measurable snows (and this is LATE)....measuring is always difficult. Especially if this is a long duration storm. If it snows for 24 hours straight in late April, and you stick a ruler in the snow for the first time as the last flake falls, that is going to be WAY lowballed. But on the flip side, you cant measure every 2 hours just because its late April. Basically, have to use a snowboard (parts of the ground will soak up the snow, cement may just be wet), clear every 6 hours UNLESS it changes to rain at some point, then measure as soon as it changes over.

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BTW, While no one should be expecting a historic storm, I wouldn't be so easy to discount this one from a snowstorm perspective simply because it's April 24th.

Remember, one of the two biggest snowstorms (6-10") the Great Lakes region had this season was in Noivember and featured a synoptic setup similar to this one (in terms of how closed it was). If you're looking for major dumps around these parts, you always want to have a deeply closed low. If you can get those huge, fluffy flakes to form high aloft with plenty of moisture and lift, then dynamic cooling can do the trick in terms of accumulations if the rates are steady/heavy enough in spite of marginal temperature profiles.

BTW, as for the "snowstorm" we had in 2005 around this time, there was no accumulation (or snow depth rather) at any time in the city proper. It was probably due to the fact that we couldn't get under any decent returns (seeing as the snow was rotating off the hills to the NW) versus the temperature profiles.

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Correct. This is a desperately needed soaker. Any talk of snow, at least here, is ridiculous. It doesn't snow here when it's climatologically supposed to anymore. It sure as hell ain't going to snow in late April.

I agree to remain cautious, still a lot of things that can go wrong anywhere from a weaker system to a bomb (RGEM). A bomb solution would wrap a ton of warm air around and possible be a sleet scenario for a period until the low fills. I do still think snow (at least some) is a good probability for Toronto.

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Sure thought there would be a lot more lap tops in the air posting in here.. I can't get enough naked model watching this one but I guess its that time of yr where if no houses are getting flattened or the Reed Timmer wannabe's have no use for the storm the thread is going to be dead.

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Sure thought there would be a lot more lap tops in the air posting in here..  I can't get enough naked model watching this one but  I guess its that time of yr where if no houses are getting flattened or the Reed Timmer wannabe's have no use for the storm the thread is going to be dead.

I'm sure there would be more excitement if this thing was affecting more than 3 posters.

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I'm sure there would be more excitement if this thing was affecting more than 3 posters.

severe wx threads have no problem growing big even though a lot of the time its no where near posters BY'S.

Anyways.. good ole 12z NAM looks it would back some snow in to far eastern MI.

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