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22nd - 24th Storm potential. Eastern Lakes


SpartyOn

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EC does have its moments :guitar:

Actually temps are now falling as the rain has moved in. Currently it's 38 at the airport/YYZ and 39 at the downtown U of T station by Bloor St. For tonight, I'm expecting a slushy coating to an inch in the downtown core (mainly north of Queen St, next to nothing by the lakeshore), 1-2" midtown/highway 401 and 2-3" north of Steeles Ave.

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Bust for Toronto. Forecast high now of 8C (46F). Environment Canada nailed this.

And yet it is snowing at 34° across the lake in Buffalo! Crazy. Would have though Toronto would be the same conditions as Buffalo is right now!

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Actually temps are now falling as the rain has moved in. Currently it's 38 at the airport/YYZ and 39 at the downtown U of T station by Bloor St. For tonight, I'm expecting a slushy coating to an inch in the downtown core (mainly north of Queen St, next to nothing by the lakeshore), 1-2" midtown/highway 401 and 2-3" north of Steeles Ave.

Also just checked my EC forecast and it still calls for 2-3". Interesting. TWN lowered its 4" to 1". Nothing is coming down here yet, but radar shows it's been over me for a while.

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And yet it is snowing at 34° across the lake in Buffalo! Crazy. Would have though Toronto would be the same conditions as Buffalo is right now!

Toronto has it's own climate bubble. It could be heavy snow on the Toronto city limits but raining inside the city limits...or nothing coming down at all. :whistle:

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Anyone know if it is snowing up on the escarpment in Ontario? Looks like 1.5°-2.0°C readings just north of Toronto.

Wouldn't know if there was a way to find out. But, it probably is.

Just saw TWN is forecasting 6" of snow for the Dundalk Highlands. That's the area of Southern Ontario to the north of Kitchener/Waterloo and west of Toronto.

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Wouldn't know if there was a way to find out. But, it probably is.

Just saw TWN is forecasting 6" of snow for the Dundalk Highlands. That's the area of Southern Ontario to the north of Kitchener/Waterloo and west of Toronto.

Found a way (through wunderground's camera directory)... looked up web cams! Camera at Mono Mills

current.jpg?1335212082

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What bust? Who was calling for anything other than rain with a few sloppy flakes mixed in for Toronto?

Kudos on your bold call a couple of days ago. Radar returns haven't been too impressive. Just light to sometimes moderate. We need the heavier retuns (yellows and reds) to get snow at this time of the year.

Off topic, if the GFS is correct, we are not done tracking snow. There is a potential snow event this weekend. I think this one looks more likely to give snow. Strong cold high pressure to the north with a wave riding along the baroclinic zone just to our south.

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Radar shows a lake-enhanced band moving south from Georgian Bay towards Orangeville ON and I would assume it is all snow above about 250m asl which basically means above the Escarpment although mixing enough just below the Escarpment that the snow cover line will slowly advance towards Lake Ontario overnight, probably won't accumulate much south of the 401 but would expect slight and slushy cover to develop in most other places, up to a 10-15 cm cover in higher areas. TWN facebook feed reports snow cover at Erin and previous poster shows snow cover at nearby Mono Mills. These are locations well above 400m elevation (I used to live in the region, can recall elevations of 500-600m on topo maps in some parts of this region). The lake enhanced band will probably continue but will slowly rotate with the storm's northward movement to a position across western Simcoe County into central York Region tonight and then more like a NW type snow squall band on Tuesday. This will bring variable snowfalls and some ice pellets mixing in, across regions north of Toronto tomorrow.

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Kudos on your bold call a couple of days ago. Radar returns haven't been too impressive. Just light to sometimes moderate. We need the heavier retuns (yellows and reds) to get snow at this time of the year.

Off topic, if the GFS is correct, we are not done tracking snow. There is a potential snow event this weekend. I think this one looks more likely to give snow. Strong cold high pressure to the north with a wave riding along the baroclinic zone just to our south.

Was it a bold call? To not think it's going to snow in Toronto on April 23rd. I thought that was just common sense.

I'll agree with your point about the defo band not being all that impressive. Have only recorded about 0.20" of rain so far. Way off the 0.75-1.00" the models were spitting out as recently as yesterday (although we're not done, but I doubt we crack 0.50" line). When it was raining heavier around 3.30pm this afternoon there were some big sloppy flakes mixing in. Had we gotten heavier precip, I could have seen today being mostly WTSN, but I still doubt anything would have accumulated.

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Was it a bold call? To not think it's going to snow in Toronto on April 23rd. I thought that was just common sense.

I'll agree with your point about the defo band not being all that impressive. Have only recorded about 0.20" of rain so far. Way off the 0.75-1.00" the models were spitting out as recently as yesterday (although we're not done, but I doubt we crack 0.50" line). When it was raining heavier around 3.30pm this afternoon there were some big sloppy flakes mixing in. Had we gotten heavier precip, I could have seen today being mostly WTSN, but I still doubt anything would have accumulated.

Well I guess I fell into the same old trap of trusting the weather models. LOL. A few runs looked sweet (eg. last Thursday's 12z Euro run and a few NAM runs), but I should have thought better. Anyways, our best hope is for that defo band to get it's act together tonight and give at least slushy coating. But the returns aren't that great.

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Wow, really? I was in Niagara Falls and Thorold today and it was mostly rain/snow mixture with no accumulation. Buffalo is also apparently devoid of accums.

They did. I think it was their storm chasers video he was giving a report then they played the video.

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Hmmm, I expected the storm to trend eastward/weaker as its arrival time approached, but I didn't expect it to bust this badly. The models always like to overamplify storms around that 72hr time frame.

On well, it's April 23rd. Anyone who's thinking about snow at this point needs to find something elsde to think about.

Any snowflakes this time of year is a bonus.

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Wow, really? I was in Niagara Falls and Thorold today and it was mostly rain/snow mixture with no accumulation. Buffalo is also apparently devoid of accums.

They screwed up the town caption. Second time I saw it the caption said Orangeville..which makes much more sense.

Ontario totals...

Flesherton.....10"

Orangeville....8"

Fergus.........3"

Coldwater......2"

Casselman......3"

Dwight.........1.5"

Ottawa.........1.2"

Ravenscliffe...3"

Algonquin......5"

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